The Kansas City Chiefs came close to becoming the first team ever to win three straight Super Bowl titles. The lopsided result aside, Kansas City’s run to become the first team ever to make the Super Bowl after winning two straight is pretty impressive.
But the Chiefs didn’t win — and, in fact, suffered their worst playoff defeat in the Patrick Mahomes era, and in both of Mahomes’ Super Bowl losses , he has been thoroughly battered by an elite defensive line. In 2024, Kansas City ranked as just the league’s 17th-best pass-blocking unit, and Mahomes was pressured at an above-average rate. Given that, it’s not a surprise that an offensive lineman is a -145 favorite to be the Chiefs’ first-round draft pick at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Chiefs first round pick prediction
Let’s take a look back at that Super Bowl: Mahomes was sacked six times and hit 11 times, facing pressure on 38.1% of his drop-backs, his second-highest rate of any game in 2024 and the second-highest of his postseason career. Although Kansas City’s strong pass rush did manage to pressure Jalen Hurts on 24.1% of his drop-backs, Mahomes always looked like he was fighting for his life while Hurts appeared composed.
The Chiefs won’t be going against a front six as terrifying as Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Nolan Smith, Zach Baun, and Milton Williams every single week, but in order to claim the Lombardi Trophy again, it’s not incredibly unlikely that they’re going to have to go through a Philadelphia defense that still includes four of the six, although Sweat and Williams now play elsewhere. If Kansas City wants to protect Mahomes against a pass-rushing unit of that caliber, it’ll need a better left guard than Mike Caliendo, who ranked as the fifth-worst qualified pass-blocker among 77 guards in Pro Football Focus’ database. Also, left tackle Jaylon Moore is new to the team, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor gave up the ninth-most pressures of any tackle last season.
When the first round rolls around tomorrow night, the Chiefs can forget about LSU’s Will Campbell and Missouri’s Armand Membou, who will both be long gone by the 31st selection. Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr., North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel, and Ohio State’s Josh Simmons all might be still on the board, though, as well as Alabama guard Tyler Booker. Of the four remaining options, Simmons is probably the cleanest fit; while he suffered a season-ending knee injury in October and is a slightly more raw prospect because of it, his quick feet and positional versatility make him a valuable asset on either side of the line. Booker’s big-game experience with the Crimson Tide could also be enticing to a win-now team.
There’s only one situation I see in which Kansas City doesn’t pick an offensive lineman: if all six players listed above are off the board, North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton somehow slips past the Denver Broncos with the 20th overall pick, and the Chiefs don’t like the next tier of options — which includes Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr., the Buckeyes’ Donovan Jackson, and others. In that case, Kansas City does need a running back (+750) to add more dynamism to the offense after Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, and Samaje Perine combined for seven carries and 24 yards in the Super Bowl, and it would take Hampton if he were miraculously available.
BEST BET: KC to select an offensive lineman with 1st pick (-145)
