It is tough not to be discouraged from the Houston Rockets’ perspective after the opening game of this series. They limited the Warriors to 95 points, outrebounded them 52-36 and had the game script go almost entirely in their favor, but still came up short.
There is no time to feel sorry for yourself during the NBA Playoffs, and Houston must find a better offensive approach than what occurred in the series opener. These two teams will be back in action tonight in a game that should be considered a must-win from the Rockets’ perspective. Falling 0-2 to an experienced team like the Warriors before traveling to Golden State feels like an impossible hole to dig out of. The second-seeded Rockets will look to protect their home court tonight in the final game of the NBA slate.
The Rockets enter as 3.5-point favorites and -162 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Warriors hold +136 odds of getting the win, and the game total is set at 204 points.
With the stage set in this intriguing Western Conference battle, here are my favorite prop bets on the slate.
Jimmy Butler Over 23.5 Points (-105)
Seems like there might be something to this ‘Playoff Jimmy’ thing. As has been known to be the case, the six-time All-Star has found a new gear as a scorer since the regular season ended, dropping 38 points in the play-in victory over the Grizzlies and then 25 points in the opening game of this series. He also closed out the regular season by scoring 24 or more points in each of his final three games.
Houston is a defensive-minded team that had success imposing itself on this side of the floor in the series opener. During the regular season, the Rockets ranked sixth in opponent points allowed, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage and they allowed the second-fewest three-point attempts per game. Even Steph Curry struggled in a major way during the regular season, being limited to just three points on 1-for-10 shooting from the field. Houston’s physically imposing style can throw players and teams completely off their games, but Jimmy Butler tends to thrive in these style of matchups.
Golden State runs a unique system that does an excellent job of creating looks through off-ball motion and cutting. But Butler is at his best when backing down opponents, creating in isolation and getting to the free-throw line at a high rate. He has been a huge addition and changed the overall offensive ceiling of this Warriors team, with this type of matchup being exactly where it shows up the most. Butler attempted 19 shots and got to the free-throw line six times in the series opener while logging 42 minutes. As Houston makes it a priority to impose itself defensively, Golden State will need to rely on Butler to create in the halfcourt. If he continues to see this level of minutes and usage, he will have no trouble cruising to over 23.5 points again tonight.
Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 Rebounds (-105)
The biggest area of concern coming into this series was the disparity in rebounding between these two teams. Golden State is at its best when it plays small with Draymond Green as the primary big man. In contrast, Houston has had success when playing double-big lineups with the emergence of Steven Adams being a recent storyline playing next to Alperen Sengun. The Rockets dominated the rebounding battle in the opening game, tallying 22 offensive rebounds and 16 more total rebounds than the Warriors. Adams truly felt as if he changed the game by recording 12 rebounds, five of which were offensive, in 20 minutes of action.
It will be an interesting chess match to see what adjustments each of these teams elects to make. But the concern for Adams’ minutes being limited has me staying away for now. Sengun pulled in nine rebounds during the series opener after averaging 10.3 rebounds per game during the regular season. He tallied over 10.5 rebounds in 33 games this season, including as many as 20 in a matchup. Sengun averaged 11.2 rebounds per game across his five matchups with Golden State in the regular season, recording over 10.5 rebounds in three of these games.
You can’t point to anything but the offense when looking at why the Rockets are in this 0-1 series hole. Putting up just 85 points is not going to win you a matchup against the Warriors, and the team will need to sacrifice some of its high-level rebounders and defenders for more scoring threats. Expect this to put more on Sengun’s plate as a rebounder and for him to deliver with an improved rebounding output tonight. He was a few bad bounces away from reaching this total in his 36 minutes of action in the series opener, so expect there to be more on his plate tonight as he records over 10.5 rebounds.
Brandin Podziemski Over 22.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-115)
Steve Kerr’s rotation has been a bit of a revolving door all season, with the head coach having to get creative at times. The Warriors are more lacking in their offensive creators than one would expect, but Brandin Podziemski has been a fairly consistent bright spot. He shined in the opening game, dropping 14 points along with eight rebounds and five assists, or 27 combined points, rebounds and assists.
The Santa Clara product has always been a solid rebounder for his size, and his ability as a ball-handler is notable with so much attention being paid to Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. On the season overall, Podziemski averaged 11.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game in his 26.8 minutes of action. He closed the season playing at a high level, averaging 17.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game across the final 14 games of the season.
Look for Podziemski to pick up right where he left off in the first matchup, where he was the only player outside of Curry and Butler to score more than seven points. He has always been a high-level shot creator and has shown some growth this season by impacting the game in other areas. Expect him to pitch in as a rebounder tonight and be a necessary part of the game plan throughout the matchup. Count on him to record over 22.5 combined points, rebounds and assists again tonight.
