The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The Masters this season consists of 89 players, prior to any late withdraws or absentees. Akshay Bhatia won last week in Texas and earned the final spot. Bernhard Langer (Achilles) withdrew recently and there are other small injury issues to monitor on players such as Hideki Matsuyama (everything) and Patrick Cantlay (undisclosed).
This season will also mark the second time that the Masters is played since the formation of the rival LIV golf league. Players from the new TOUR will be competing head-on against the heavyweights of the PGA TOUR and for DFS and betting purposes that means that players like Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Smith, and Brooks Koepka will all be available for use.
Tiger Woods is also playing and got in some practice rounds at Augusta on Sunday. Tiger withdrew in his only other PGA start this season at Riviera, although the reason for his withdrawal was illness (and not injury). He’s made it clear his goal this season is to at least play in all four majors.
One final note for DFS purposes: The cut line for this event is also unique. The cut still takes place after Friday, but only the top 50 and ties will play the weekend (the old 10-shot rule no longer applies). Getting all six of your golfers through the cut line will be especially crucial this week since over 50% of the actual field will get a chance to play the weekend.
The Course
Augusta National Golf Club—Augusta, Georgia
Par 72, 7,545 yards
Augusta National was built on the site of an old tree sanctuary, and every one of its holes has a name associated with its natural surroundings (usually a tree, bush, or flower). At its most basic, Augusta is a standard par-72 course that has four par 5s, four par 3s, and 10 par 4s. However, there truly isn’t anything standard about the setup of the holes or the course. Augusta is one of the hilliest tracks on the PGA TOUR, and the elevation changes and slopes between the tee box and green mean that experience playing the course can really pay off. The slick bentgrass greens offer up their own challenge, and missing an approach at Augusta on the wrong side of the green can often bring big numbers into play.
Players at Augusta often struggle in their first few outings and it’s easy to see why. On top of the green structures being the toughest the players face all season, the course has a lot of subtle and dramatic doglegs built in. Players who move the ball right to left have an advantage, and we’ve seen severe drawers of the golf ball like Zach Johnson and Patrick Reed net the biggest wins of their careers at this venue. Left-handers who fade the ball well like Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson have also thrived at this event.
As far as the individual holes go, here’s a brief breakdown of what awaits the players this week:
Par 5s 550-600: 2; Par 5s 500-550: 2; Par 4s over 500: 1; Par 4s 450-500: 5; Par 4s 400-450: 3; Par 4s under 400: 1; Par 3s over 200: 1; Par 3s 150-200: 3
The course was redesigned back in 2002 to catch up with modern technology and now plays quite long, but it has still seen winning scores range all the way from +1 (Zach Johnson 2007) to -20 (Dustin Johnson in 2020).
The par-4 11th hole and par-5 15th hole were both lengthened a couple of seasons ago and for 2024 the tee box on the par 5 2nd hole (typically one of the easiest on the course) was pushed back. The 11th has also had its fairway widened but been toughened in areas around the green to make bailing out a less viable option. It now stretches to 520 yards and is likely to play as the toughest hole again for the week. The 15th was already a classic risk-reward hole with a huge moat surrounding a skinny green, but the added length to 550 yards has made the tee shot much more important.
The course played much tougher the last three seasons with Hideki Matsuyama and Scottie Scheffler winning at just 10-under par. Last year Jon Rahm put on a clinic in the final round and managed to get in at 12-under par but he was the only player to achieve that feat. The first two days this year have higher winds forecast (and possible thunderstorms on Thursday) but the weekend forecast looks idyllic so you may see scoring start slow but some lower scores posted on Saturday and Sunday.
Augusta has seen winning scores range from 5-under to 20-under over the past seven years, and tougher conditions have often led to more long-shot winners. Hideki Matsuyama went off at 40-1 in 2021, and in 2017 and 2016 — when the winning scores stayed well below 10-under-par — we saw long-shot winners of 40-1 or greater prevail.
With the recent lengthening of the course in multiple areas the venue has tended to favor the off-the-tee specialists more in the last couple of seasons. The duel between Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka in 2023 (two of the best drivers of the ball in the game) certainly emphasized this point and in toss-up situations this week (for DFS and betting) leaning slightly towards the bigger hitter (or better off-the-tee player) is warranted.
2024 Masters Weather Outlook: The weather this week should be much better than what we saw in 2023 but there is still lots to take note of. Thursday does have some thunderstorms in the forecast and it is possible that we see some interruptions of play in the first round. Winds for Thursday also look like they will be strong throughout the day. Currently, gusts on Thursday are set to potentially reach 30mph in spots. Friday also has heavier winds forecast with the wind speeds building as the day goes on. Right now, it does look like there could be a small advantage for the Thursday P.M. / Friday A.M. crowd, who may avoid the absolute worst of the winds the first two days. However, if there is any stoppage of play on Thursday, that could push the Thursday A.M. starters into Saturday for their second round and give them a significant advantage. We often see wave splits develop at Augusta (so stacking by wave for DFS is warranted this week) but just be aware that the forecast can change quickly this time of year and one side of the draw isn’t guaranteed to have the best of it.
Last 10 winners
2023—Jon Rahm -12 (over Brooks Koepka -8)
2022—Scottie Scheffler -10 (over Rory McIlroy -7)
2021—Hideki Matsuyama -10 (over Will Zalatoris -9)
*2020—Dustin Johnson -20 (Sungjae Im and Cameron Smith -15)
2019—Tiger Woods -13 (over Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Dustin Johnson -12)
2018—Patrick Reed -15 (over Rickie Fowler -14)
2017—Sergio Garcia -9 (over Justin Rose playoff)
2016—Danny Willett -5 (over Jordan Spieth and Lee Westwood -2)
2015 – Jordan Spieth -18 (over Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose -16)
2014 – Bubba Watson -7 (over Jordan Spieth -5)
*Played in November
Winning Trends
- No player has won at Augusta in their first attempt since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979.
- Eight of the last 11 winners had achieved a top-five finish at Augusta in at least one previous Masters start
- Since 1996, only one player has won the Masters after missing the cut here in the previous year (Patrick Reed 2018).
- 9 of the last 10 winners of the Masters had recorded a top-five finish in one of their last five starts before Augusta
- Recent statistical form of the LAST THREE Masters winners (in their FINAL FOUR starts before Augusta):
Gained 2.0 strokes or more on approach in multiple starts
Gained 2.0 strokes or more around the green in at least one start
Gained 1.0 stroke or more putting in at least one start
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Jon Rahm (2023 — 12-under-par)
Rahm’s Lead-in form for 2023: T39-win-T3-T7-win
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green — 1st
- Strokes Gained: Approach — 6th
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee — 4th
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green — 9th
- Strokes Gained: Putting — 26th
Par 5’ – 10-under-par; Par 4s – 3-under-par; Par 3s – 1-over-par
- Rahm killed the par 5s last year which is a hallmark of most Masters winners. He putted well but was also excellent around the greens — that was also a hallmark of 2022 winner Scottie Scheffler, who ranked second in strokes gained around the greens.
- 2021 champion Hideki Matsuyama also excelled around the greens, ranking fourth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green in the year of his win
- Strong tee-to-green play is a necessity. Rahm led the field in that stat, and four of the last five winners have now gained +12.0 or more strokes tee to green for the week
- However, a nearly equal amount of success for top finishers at this venue in the last few years has been split between Approach and Around the Greens.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Xander Schauffele +1800 and $9,900
Comparables
Wyndham Clark +2800 and $10,000
Brooks Koepka +2200 and $10,200
Bryson DeChambeau +3500 and $8,200
Comparables
Collin Morikawa +3500 and $8,400
Dustin Johnson +3500 and $8,800
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Jordan Spieth ($9,300; best finish: win-2015, T2-2016, 2014 T3-2018, 2021): Spieth has placed second here twice and won the event in 2015 by tying the then-scoring record set by Tiger Woods (-18). In 2018, he shot a brilliant 64 in the final round to vault him into third place. Among players with 30 or more rounds played at Augusta, he has the best scoring average in the field.
2. Jon Rahm ($11,200; best finishes: win-2023, T5-2021): It didn’t take long for Rahm to build up a massive portfolio of top finishes at this event. He’s now finished inside the top 10 at Augusta in four of the past five seasons and won this event by four strokes last year. He’s moved Tours (and has to deal with a different kind of lead-in this year) but remains a top-tier player and someone who is very likely to contend this week.
3. Dustin Johnson ($8,800; best finish: win-2020, T2-2019, T4-2016): Johnson tore apart a watered-down Augusta in November of 2020, missing just 12 greens in regulation for the week on his way to breaking the scoring record. He’s done well at Augusta in tougher conditions, as well, and was in contention late in 2016 when the winning score was just five-under-par.
4. Cameron Smith ($8,900; best finish: T2-2020, T5-2018, T3-2022): Smith has seemingly mastered Augusta over the last few seasons. Possessing a slick short game, he finished runner-up at this event in November of 2020 and was in the final pairing in 2022 as well before fading to T3 for the week. He’s been up and down this year but landed a T2 finish on LIV just two starts ago.
5. Patrick Reed ($7,400; best finish: win-2018, T4-2023): Reed won this event back in 2018 (his only major) and has since strung together a few more higher finishes. He finished T4 at this event last season and also landed top 10 finishes in 2020 and 2021. His form comes and goes but his last start on LIV netted him a T9.
Recent Form
1. Scottie Scheffler ($12,100; win-T4): Much like last season and the season before, Scheffler has had a dream start to 2024. He’s grabbed multiple wins and not finished worse than 17th on the season in eight starts. He is unequivocally the man to beat this week.
2. Xander Schauffele ($9,900; T5-T2): Schauffele Pushed Scheffler to the limit at the PLAYERS and has had a near-immaculate lead-up with four top-five finishes in 2024 already.
3. Russell Henley ($7,200; T4-MC-T4): While he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS Henley has two top-five finishes in his last two starts. He’s showcasing a far better overall game in 2024 and looks like a danger to push for another top 10 at Augusta this season.
4. Rory McIlroy ($10,800; 3rd-T19): While he had a few issues getting his game into top form, McIlroy’s last PGA finish netted him 3rd place finish and he gained 9.4 strokes ball-striking in the process.
5. Ludvig Aberg ($9,100; T14-T8): Aberg has five top-20 finishes over his last six starts. The Swede has been an absolute monster from a ball-striking perspective and if he figures out these greens quickly will likely contend on his first Masters start.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Rely on the veterans
Starting with Scottie Scheffler ($12,100) this week is recommended. However, whatever path you take it’s names like Tony Finau ($8,600), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000 – see below), Russell Henley ($7,200), and even Patrick Reed ($7,400) that will allow you to build out solid lineups. Finau has had a very solid leadup this season and never missed the cut at this event. Henley is playing some of his best golf and coming off a T4 at this event from last season while Reed (who also finished T4 last season at this event) finally flashed some form last week at Doral with a T9.
Tournaments: DeChambeau could deliver
Bryson DeChambeau ($8,200) has had his issues at Augusta. His best finish at this event is still the T21 he put up back in 2016 (on his first visit) and he’s now missed the cut at this event in two straight seasons. His price does reflect that poor history but it may not take into account his improved play or improved major finishes from the past season (T4 PGA, T20 US Open). Either way, I don’t expect him to be an overly popular pick and certainly his eagle upside on the par 5s makes him a nice value to chase in GPPs at this price level. Sergio Garcia ($6,800) is another LIV player who has performed well of late and whose experience at Augusta could make him a very solid GPP play this week at under $7,000. Garcia still drives the ball as well as anyone, despite being well into his 40s now. Other names to consider for this format include Si Woo Kim ($7,100 – see below), Thorbjorn Olesen ($6,500 – see below), Min Woo Lee ($7,300), and Bubba Watson ($6,400).
MY PICK: Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000)
I don’t think we should shy away from Hideki Matsuyama this week — even if his salary is sure to make him an overly popular pick for DFS. The Japanese superstar has already revealed that his top form this season is as good as anyone’s on the planet after he tore apart Riviera in February for a 62 in the final round on his way to a three-shot win. Since then, he’s only gotten sharper.
He’s gained over 11.0 strokes tee-to-green in each of his last two starts (and over 7.0 strokes ball-striking) and has been an absolute machine around the greens all year, having gained over 3.0 strokes ATG in four of his final five starts. Much like past 2x Masters winner Bubba Watson, Matsuyama has quite clearly developed a bond with this venue, having now finished T16 or better at this event in each of the past four seasons — a run that includes having shot under par in nine of his last 16 competitive rounds at Augusta National.
With his betting number back up to +2500 (for now) on the DraftKings Sportsbooks, he makes for a solid outright target and a great core player to build around for DFS this week.
MID-RANGE VALUE: Si Woo Kim ($7,100)
I think Si Woo Kim is a legitimate dark horse and there is no denying that the South Korean has had a fantastic lead-up to this year’s event. He’s made nine starts on the PGA TOUR in 2024 and has recorded no missed cuts, and four top 20s in his last final six starts — including a T6 at TPC Sawgrass. Kim has been fantastic tee to green all season, gaining over 7.0 strokes tee to green in each of his last three starts. He’s gained over 3.0 strokes ball-striking in all but one of his last six starts and has gained strokes off the tee in all nine of his 2024 starts.
This will also be Kim’s eighth time teeing it up at Augusta. His best finish remains a T12 from 2021 but I’d argue that his improved form off the tee in 2024 will help him navigate this venue better than he has in past seasons. At $7,100, he’s someone who likely won’t kill your lineup in DFS (he’s made the cut in six straight seasons) and has far better upside potential than his pricing indicates.
SLEEPER: Thorbjorn Olesen ($6,500)
Olesen represents the exact kind of sub-7k boom or bust option you should be looking at for your big GPP lineups this week. The Dane has been playing a full American schedule this season and while he went through an adjustment period (three MCs in a row), his body of work in 2024 is better if you take a broader outlook. Olesen won early in the season on the DP World Tour Ras AL Khaimah Championship but has now made five straight American starts, the best of which is his T14 from last week at the Valero.
He gained over 5.0 strokes around-the-green last week at TPC San Antonio but was also very positive on approach, gaining 3.7 strokes in that area as well. This will be Olesen’s fourth visit to Augusta (first since 2019) and he’s always scored well around this course (especially the par 5s) landing a T6 here in 2013 (his debut) and a T21 back in 2019. He makes for a solid DFS play but is also someone you may want to consider on the DraftKings Sportsbook as a top 20 target (+400).
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
