The NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are off to an electric start with multiple overtime games in just the first days of postseason action, but the schedulers saved the best for last. Tonight, a bitter intra-state rivalry continues as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the reigning champion Florida Panthers for Game 1 of a series with the makings of peak playoff hockey.
These teams met in three of the last four postseasons, with the Lightning claiming victory in the first two series before the Panthers finally vanquished their most bitter rival during last season’s Stanley Cup run. Ahead of round four of this heavyweight bout, here’s a Lightning vs. Panthers preview, prediction, and pick for the Battle of Florida.
Lightning vs. Panthers first-round series preview
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning are a mainstay in the Stanley Cup Playoffs — this series marks their eighth consecutive postseason appearance as they continue to compete for championships on the tail end of a near-dynastic run. After hoisting back-to-back trophies in 2020 and 2021, the team lost in the 2022 finals and haven’t made it out of the first round since. They’ve got as good a chance as anyone to break that streak this time around, though.
Tampa Bay’s offense is the most fearsome attack in the NHL, plain and simple. They led the league in scoring by a six-goal margin, averaging 3.56 netted shots per game. Their power play success rate of 25.9% ranks fifth-best of any team and they tied for the league-lead with 35 wins when scoring first. Their star power on the top lines remains unmatched as Nikita Kucherov earned the Art Ross Trophy with 121 points. He’s joined on the top line by two 80-plus point scorers in Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel, while Brandon Hagel scored 90 as the second-line anchor. They’re top-heavy, sure, but this team pours on goals in a hurry.
As always, Andrei Vasilevskiy provides a consistently elite presence in net for the Lightning. With a .921 save percentage and 2.18 goals-against average, the veteran ranks fourth in each category among goaltenders with at least 20 starts this season. As a team, Tampa Bay also falls top-six in both goals allowed per game and penalty kill percentage. This is the top two-way team in hockey — their goal differential of 75 proves it.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers won their first Stanley Cup in franchise history last season and looked on pace to do it again heading into the 4 Nations break with a 34-20-3 record and the Atlantic Division’s top spot. However, Matthew Tkachuk injured his groin during the international tournament and hasn’t played since. Still, the team braved their alternate captain’s absence and a 20-game PED-related suspension for Aaron Ekblad to the tune of a 13-11-1 finish over the remaining games.
While a 3-6-1 record across their last 10 heading into the postseason appears ugly, the Ice Cats have licked their wounds and are nearly back at full strength. Tkachuk is a game-time decision for Game 1 of Panthers vs. Lightning, while Ekblad is on pace to return for Game 3. Once the lineup regains full strength, they belong in the upper echelon of postseason contenders.
Tkachuk averaged better than a point per game before his injury, and prior to 4 Nations, Florida’s offense ranked fifth in scoring with 3.30 goals a night and top-10 in power play percentage. On the season, their defense allows the seventh-fewest goals per game and falls ninth on the penalty kill — while Sergei Bobrovsky’s save percentage isn’t spectacular, he does rank seventh in goals-against average. Look for them to return to their two-way tendencies once Tkachuk retakes the ice and provides a burst of offense.
Keys to the Series
The Lightning boast one of the NHL’s elite goalies in Vasilevskiy, but the Panthers’ netminder is also very capable of heating up when it counts. Bobrovsky logged a 2.32 GAA with two shutouts over last year’s Stanley Cup run as his team went 16-8 throughout the postseason. Tampa Bay does maintain a slight advantage in net, but Florida’s not very far behind.
Tkachuk’s status is another key to this series. The veteran winger produced 22 goals and 35 assists prior to his 4 Nations injury, and since he hasn’t taken the ice in a game setting since early February, there’s a chance he might need to shake some rust off. However, Tkachuk’s played a major role with at least 22 points in each of the last two postseasons and should elevate his game when he returns. Even if he’s a bit slow rounding into form, his presence on the ice should provide a significant emotional bump for the Panthers and serve as extra motivation against a rival.
As always, special teams rounds out the difference-making factors come playoff time. The Lightning are great both with a man advantage and when playing shorthanded, but the Panthers’ special teams unit graded out slightly weaker over the course of the regular season. Tkachuk’s absence played a part in that, but the other forwards on the power play need to elevate in the playoff environment. The first unit with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart will benefit from Tkachuk’s return, but the second unit must improve.
Lightning vs. Panthers first-round series odds, prediction, pick
It’s worth noting that entering Game 1 of Lightning vs. Panthers, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Florida as a slight favorite to win the series at -115 odds. The Panthers did win last year’s first-round series by a 4-1 margin, but a repeat of that short series would come as a big surprise in this rematch. The Lightning do come in as -105 underdogs this time around, so the odds are almost split down the middle.
Public betting splits show the majority of bettors favor the Panthers to take the edge — they’re picked in 59% of total series winner bets compared to 41% of bets on the Lightning. The handle splits show a different trend as 59% of the money lies on Tampa Bay to bounce Florida from the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
With two of the NHL’s heaviest hitters on either side, it’s quite difficult to predict the exact outcome of this series. The Lightning offense is unreal, but the Ice Cats love to grind teams down on defense and they’ve got the grit to win it. In all likelihood, expect Tampa Bay to take an early lead in this first-round series but watch for the Panthers to eventually emerge from the dust victorious. No matter what happens, though, the fourth edition of the Battle of Florida ought to be the epitome of high-intensity playoff hockey and a treat for viewers on either side.
Top Pick: TB Lightning to Win Game 1/FLA Panthers to Win Series (+400)
