We’ve got ourselves a teeny tiny afternoon four-game slate on Thursday, wrapping up the first week of MLB’s regular season. Will the Marlins finally get a win? Only time will tell.
Let’s dive in and find some studs and values.
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PITCHER
Stud
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox, $8,300 – There was a lot to like about Lugo’s first start in a Royals uniform. First and foremost, the RHP tossed six scoreless innings against the Twins, allowing just two hits and a walk. It’s also worth noting that Lugo induced 12 swings and misses that day, finishing his outing with an eye-popping 14.0% swinging strike rate. Lugo’s strikeout ability has always been better coming out of the bullpen, yet the veteran is averaging over a strikeout per inning for his career. I expect his success to continue against a White Sox lineup that entered Thursday with the league’s third-highest strikeout rate (28.0%).
Value
Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, $6,200 – It’s slim pickings towards the bottom of the pitching pool, so you might as well take a chance on the upside of Weathers. The left-hander was a victim of BABIP in his first outing of 2024, yet he still managed to strikeout five across four innings of work. Weathers also touched 98.3 mph with his fastball in that start and I’ll always be a sucker for a lefty with that kind of velocity. Sue me. In terms of matchup, the Cardinals have started the year slowly with the bats. In fact, St. Louis posted a .099 ISO and 60 wRC+ in its opening six contests. That’s not great.
INFIELD
Stud
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, $5,500 – The Pirates faced five straight left-handed starters to open the season, so it’ll be nice for Cruz to finally get some consistent swings in an opposite-hand matchup. The RHP on the bump for Washington on Thursday? Josiah Gray ($6,400), who allowed eight hits and seven earned runs back on Opening Day. Gray’s kryptonite has always been lefty bats. For his career, LHBs are slugging .505 off Gray, as the 26-year-old has surrendered 2.39 home runs per nine within the split. Cruz, an exit velocity king, could really do some damage in this spot.
Stud
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox, $4,600 – Pasquantino is off to an incredibly slow start to 2024, but I have a feeling Thursday is the day things turn around. The first baseman owns a career 119 wRC+ against RHPs and he’ll draw a struggling one in the form of Mike Soroka ($6,600). It’s difficult to imagine a worse first outing than the one Soroka suffered through last week. Seven hits, four earned runs and zero strikeouts. If you allow that much contact in modern baseball, you will get burned. It’s probably why Soroka has a 6.73 FIP dating back to the beginning of 2023.
Value
Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians, $3,500 – When in doubt, just use Julien against a right-handed opponent, as the sophomore continues to be criminally underpriced on DraftKings. In his rookie campaign, in 360 plate appearances within the split, Julien posted a .898 OPS and a 151 wRC+. To put that in context, that ranked Julien in the 93rd percentile of all hitters with at least 350 PAs versus RHPs. Oh, he also hits leadoff. That’s cool, too.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, $5,600 – Reynolds is off to a great start in 2024, slashing .286/.394/.500 with a 135 wRC+. He’ll draw the same amazing matchup as the aforementioned Cruz on Thursday, with the added bonus that Reynolds has always been a better DFS option when hitting from the left-side of the batter’s box. To wit, for his career, Reynolds has a .215 ISO and a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Reynolds is also 4-for-8 with a home run off Gray in their prior meetings. If that’s your cup of statistical tea. No judgement.
Stud
Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $4,700 – We’ve focused so much on Gray, that I don’t want us to overlook the fact that Martin Perez ($7,000) is also a gas can. Perez survived his first outing of 2024 despite issuing more walks than strikeouts. That was on the heels of registering a 4.90 xERA and a 4.99 FIP in 2023. The Nationals should have their opportunities to score on Thursday and I expect Thomas to be in the middle of it all. Last season, in 192 plate appearances versus southpaws, Thomas managed a .242 ISO, a .401 wOBA and a 153 wRC+.
Value
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians, $3,200 – I don’t even really think Tanner Bibee ($9,200) is a bad pitcher, it’s just that the top of the Twins’ lineup is so ridiculously cheap. Kirilloff is a former top prospect who has struggled with injuries throughout his career. However, he’s now batting second for Minnesota against RHPs. In 2024, in a small sample, Kirilloff is slashing .444/.450/.667 with a 222 wRC+. In layman’s terms: He’s red hot at the dish. Matt Wallner ($3,000) is another name to consider in this price range.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
