The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
There are 144 players in the field in what is officially the last tournament on the PGA TOUR schedule before Augusta. With the Matchplay off the schedule this season more top players have chosen to tee it up at the Valero which is great for this tournament’s long-term profile. At the top of the board this week is Rory McIlroy (+800 DK Sportsbook), followed by Ludvig Aberg (+1100) and 2021 Valero Champion Jordan Spieth (+1800). In terms of other names to watch, both Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa are in the field alongside two-time Valero winner Corey Conners.
The rest of the field will be searching for FedEx Cup points or a breakthrough win that could book them a ticket to the first major of 2023. Some players in the field this week who need a win just to make it to Augusta include Davis Riley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Alex Noren. The cut will take place after Friday, as per usual, with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend.
The Course
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Par 72, 7,435 yards
TPC San Antonio is a long par 72 that plays over 7,400 yards but is often ranked as one of the tougher par 72s on TOUR. The conditions can also be extremely volatile, thanks to the Texas wind. When the wind has stayed down, we’ve seen record scoring, with Corey Conners hitting 20-under par here in 2019. Despite the great week by Conners that season, it should be noted that the course still played as the 12th-toughest venue on TOUR in 2019.
In 2022, birdies were again tough to come by as JJ Spaun ended up winning by multiple strokes at just 13-under par. Spaun gained multiple strokes on approach and off the tee but relied more on his around-the-green game than several recent winners. Conners last season reached 15-under par but relied heavily on ball-striking (see below for a full breakdown of Conners’ performance).
TPC San Antonio was designed by Greg Norman and has been the host of this event since 2010. The course sets up longer than average (for the PGA TOUR) at 7,435 yards and features a mix of tree-lined fairways and some open, almost links-style driving areas where the Texas brush comes into play. There are four par 5s, but three of them come in right around 600 yards, and none guarantee a great shot at birdie. Fairways are narrow, and driving accuracy stats are always well below the TOUR average, making accuracy almost as important as length off the tee. However, going a bit offline generally won’t crush a golfer since the course plays wide open in many spots, too, and has almost no water on it.
It should be noted that two of the past five winners ranked 66th (Andrew Landry in 2018) and 78th (Spieth in 2021) in driving accuracy for the week of their win.
The overseeded greens here are known to be tough, too — players have to navigate lots of sharp falloffs and contours — and that also makes them a good warm-up for Augusta. Greens in Regulation percentages tend to trend around 5 to 10% lower than the average TOUR stop. This plays into the hands of the best ball-strikers in the game — Conners led the field in GIR stats here in 2019 and 2023, and Spieth gained +7.4 strokes on Approach for the week in 2021.
Scrambling tends to be more of a neutral stat as top finishers gain the most through ball striking and timely putting. Getting hot from the 5-15 foot range with the putter at Valero has been a hallmark of past winners.
The course features four par 3s — two of which all come in well over 200 yards in length — and an additional five par 4s that will measure over 440 yards each, so good long iron play is essential, too. Targeting the players on the uptick in long iron play and putting is where your focus should be in the stat department.
2024 Outlook: Things start out well this week but could deteriorate a little as the week goes on. Thursday has highs of 78-80 F with gusts staying around or below 10 mph. Things start to get worse on Friday, however, as the wind is expected to build in the afternoon, reaching 15-16 mph with gusts over 20 mph. We have seen big scoring splits develop at this event before so when you see wind like this it’s worth taking notice. As of now, the Friday afternoon tee times could be a solid fade with the Thursday PM/Friday AM wave worth going heavy on in classic DFS builds. Saturday could see some serious leaderboard movement with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. Expect birdies to be hard to come by this week as the weather throws a little chaos into the player’s weekend plans.
Last 5 winners
2023—Corey Conners -15 (over Sam Stevens -14)
2022—JJ Spaun -13 (over Matt Jones and Matt Kuchar -11)
2021—Jordan Spieth -18 (over Charley Hoffman -16)
2019—Corey Conners -20 (over Charley Hoffman -18)
2018—Andrew Landry -17 (over Trey Mullinex -15)
Winning Trends
– Of the past 12 Valero Texas Open winners, only six had recorded a top 10 or better in a PGA TOUR event in the same year before their win.
– Each of the past nine winners had played this event at least once prior and made the cut at TPC San Antonio in at least one of those past visits.
– Six of the past 12 winners of the Valero Texas Open were first-time winners on TOUR, and four of the past six winners were first-timers.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2022 Winner: Corey Conners (15-under par)
2023 lead-in form (T27-MC-T52)
SG: OTT—+3.9
SG: APP—+9.6
SG: TTG—+14.6
SG: ATG—+1.2
SG: PUTT—+0.4
- Prior to JJ Spaun, the past four winners had gained big tee to green for the week: +12.9, +13.3, +12.5 and +14.4 strokes. Corey Conners continued that trend gaining 14.6 last season.
- This course is mostly about gaining on approach with longer to mid irons and being as consistent as possible off the tee and around the greens. Spaun gained 5.4 strokes ball-striking last season, but the four winners prior to him gained well in excess of 7.0 strikes in that combined stat (APP + OTT), with most of the strokes being gained on approach.
- Conners only ranked 51st in driving distance last season but was third in driving accuracy. JJ Spaun also had a solid week off the tee (accuracy-wise) in 2022 the year he won.
- Since 2011, when the course moved to TPC San Antonio, the worst a winner has finished for the week in terms of Strokes Gained: Tee to Green is 11th — that was a quite unlikely winner in Ben Curtis in 2012.
- In terms of lead-up form, Conners came in with zero recent form in 2019, although he had been striking the ball well in his recent starts. Spaun was much of the same as he was gaining strokes with his irons but hadn’t produced any high finishes.
- Both Jordan Spieth (2021) and Kevin Chappell (2017) have posted recent top-10 finishes.
- One last note: While this course tends to play a bit long, driving distance has become less of a factor in recent years, with both Landry and Conners ranking outside the top 50 in Driving Distance in the years of their win on TOUR.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them. This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Russell Henley +3500 and $8,200
Comparables:
Beau Hossler +5000 and $7,500
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Charley Hoffman ($6,400; best finishes: win-2016, second 2011, 2019, 2021): Hoffman has a sterling record at the Valero Texas Open. Since the event moved to TPC San Antonio, he has had nine finishes of 13th or better, including three runner-ups and a win in 2016. It was only a month and a half ago that Hoffman lost in a playoff at TPC Scottsdale.
2. Corey Conners ($9,400; best finishes: win-2019, T12-2021): Conners won this event as a qualifier in 2019 and did so again last year. He now ranks first in this field in strokes gained total at the event since 2017 by a wide margin. He’s gained over +6.0 strokes ball-striking at this venue in each of the past four seasons.
3. Matt Kuchar ($6,700; best finishes: T2-2022, T7-2019): Despite this being a longer course, Kuchar has found plenty of success at TPC San Antonio. He’s made the cut six straight years now and posted T12 or better finishes at this event in each of the last four seasons. His T3 from last year represented his second top five at this course in a row.
4. Lucas Glover ($7,300; best finishes: fourth-2021): Glover has played this event in each of the past four seasons it’s been on the schedule (since 2019). He’s made the cut all four seasons and posted a T4 at this venue back in 2021 — gaining 7.1 strokes on approach in the process. Coming off a T11 he’s a sneaky veteran to use in DFS lineups.
5. Jordan Spieth ($9,500; best finishes: win-2021, T2-2015): Spieth doesn’t always play the Valero but he’s done well at this venue, nonetheless. He posted his signature comeback win at TPC San Antonio in 2021 and also finished runner-up to Jimmy Walker here in 2015. He’s been very up-and-down but a high finish wouldn’t be overly shocking this week.
Recent Form
1. Billy Horschel ($8,900; T7-T12): Horschel finished T7 last week and gained strokes across the board for the second straight event (T12 at Valspar). He’s got a lot of experience playing this course and will likely be a popular pick for DFS.
2. Alex Noren ($8,700; T11-T19): Noren has now made 12 cuts in a row and finished top 20 in each of his last three starts. He’s been driving it better and looks poised for a big 2024.
3. Victor Perez ($7,100; T17-MC-T3): Perez is striking it well, and hitting a ton of fairways and greens every week. He remains cheap for DFS and is a player to keep an eye on down the road.
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900; T9-T13): Bezuidenhout posted a strong week at the Valspar, his second top 10 on the year. He’s been great with his approaches in 2024 and the rest of his game is starting to warm up.
5. Ryan Moore ($6,500; T31-T5): Ryan Moore has seen a nice return to form of late. He’s just one week off a top 10 (T5 Valspar) and has been gaining a lot of strokes on approach.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Conners and Horschel a trustworthy duo
Corey Conners ($9,400) at under 10k seems like a bit of a cheat code this week. the Canadian has gained over 5.0 strokes ball-striking in each of his last five starts at this venue and has played some solid golf in 2024 (T13 PLAYERS). Billy Horschel ($8,900) is also the kind of veteran who tends to excel at TPC San Antonio and has four top-five finishes at this event in his last seven starts. The two make for a nice balanced starting duo that can let you add another player like Harris English ($8,300) at or just below their range.
Tournaments: Spieth is a solid wildcard
Jordan Spieth’s ($9,500) game has taken a turn for the worst over the last couple of weeks but it’s worth remembering that the American started the season with two top 10s in his first three starts. Spieth has also been a course horse most of his career and TPC San Antonio has been one of his favorites. As a two-time winner in Texas, Spieth makes sense as a boom or bust target this week and isn’t likely to be highly owned in GPPs. Maverick McNealy ($7,400) is another name to consider for this format as his ball striking may be on the verge of a breakthrough soon and he always brings massive upside with the putter. Frenchman Victor Perez ($7,100) is another name to look at in the low 7k range as he’s been striking it beautifully and just needs to find his range with the putter. Other names to consider for this format include Ryan Moore ($6,500), Davis Rily ($6,800 – see below), Bud Cauley ($6,400), and Jhonattan Vegas ($6,200).
MY PICK: Byeong Hun An ($9,000)
Wind will be a factor and, with the Masters on the horizon, it’s a tough week to gauge how some of the top names in the field will perform. For me, I think it’s perfectly fine to go back to the Byeong Hun An well one more time, a player who has outperformed his salary in DFS on numerous occasions already this season. An started the season with T4 and T2 finishes in Hawaii and showed that his game is still clicking close to full throttle when he posted a T8 at the treacherous Bay Hill.
A down week at Sawgrass isn’t all that significant (given the volatility we see there) and he comes into this week well-rested (two weeks off) and to a course in TPC San Antonio where he’s shown great promise. An’s played this venue/event four times in the past posting two top 10 finishes (T6 2023 and T7 2019). What’s significant about his results here is the fact that, statistically, he’s posted two of the best weeks of his career from a tee-to-green perspective. In 2019 he gained 7.6 strokes on approach (his best weekly mark in that category on the PGA) and last season he gained over 9.1 strokes ball-striking (OTT + APP).
Given that the South Korean’s putting has stabilized this season (he’s gained strokes in three straight events) it does figure that this may be the year he finally figures out TPC San Antonio’s greens and breakthroughs for an even bigger week. With the top players eyeing the first major in 10 days, this week certainly represents a good chance for him to finally break through and gain PGA win number one.
At 9k flat, he’s a sensible second man in for more balanced DFS builds and at +3500 has solid odds to back in the outright market on the DK Sportsbook.
MY SLEEPER: Davis Riley ($6,800)
Disaster struck last year when I picked Davis Riley for this event (he withdrew after round one) but the circumstances for Riley entering this event in 2024 are entirely different. First, he’s not $9,500 anymore like he was last year, he’s $6,800. And for a player with his upside that is perfectly reasonable — even if his 2024 record doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Second, Riley is coming off his best week in some time having just landed a share of 14th in Houston, an effort marked by a return to form of his iron play which saw him gain the fifth most strokes on approach for the week.
The American also has strong ties to TPC San Antonio as he won a Korn Ferry Tour event on this venue back in 2021. That doesn’t guarantee success (as we found out last year) but certainly, with his game starting to show form, that kind of experience can act as the proper ingredient for him to take the next step forward.
There is a big range of outcomes with Riley this week, and a missed cut wouldn’t be overly shocking. However, if his putter heats up (he lost strokes putting in Houston) and the confidence in his long game remains, the stage could be set for him to be a massive catalyst for GPP lineups given that his DFS price remains under $7,000. For betting, he also makes sense as a longshot outright play and a top 10 target at +9000 / +850.
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