Saturday Night NBA DFS features a micro slate this weekend. It’s not a big one, but it’s professional basketball and there’s money to be won. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS research and make some fantasy basketball picks, as we gear up for the three-game main slate that starts at 5 p.m. ET.
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Guard
Studs
Dejounte Murray, Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks, $9,700 — When Trae Young went down, it looked like the Hawks were done. The Hawks didn’t quit. Murray put the team on his back. It’s a heavy load. He literally had back soreness and was questionable on Wednesday. Still, he suited up and played 36 minutes in their win over the Blazers. Saturday’s matchup will be tough from a win-loss standpoint. In terms of DFS, it’s not so bad. The Bucks win games, but their defense is average.
Value
Vit Krejci, Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks, $4,000 — His minutes look great but his role is mercurial. In blowout wins and losses, Krejci doesn’t carry much usage. This won’t be a blowout win. It shouldn’t be a blowout loss either. The Bucks do not play the best defense. The up-tempo Hawks should be competitive at home. Krejci is in position to replicate his performance from earlier this week against the Celtics (18.9% usage rate and 29 DKFP).
Garrison Mathews, Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks, $3,300 — With such a small player pool, any player that plays is in play. Small player pools also concentrate ownership in large field tournaments. The NBA DFS value picks are what make and break these slates. To win, one must get weird. “Garry” Bird is that play. Mathews hit four threes and scored 30.75 DKFP on Mar. 23. He hit five triples on Mar. 27 and scored 27 DKFP. The threes are key to winning the GPP.
Forward
Studs
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $8,400 — It’s a small slate. Raw points weigh heavier than usual. It’s not wise to avoid stars on these slates. Banchero hasn’t looked like a DFS star of late. His minutes are fine. His usage rate hasn’t changed much. Yet in the last eight games, he’s failed to score 40 DKFP six times. Even more perplexing is that his field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage have been above his season average during this mini-DFS slump. With such a small player pool on Saturday, overthinking and overanalyzing plays becomes a reality. It doesn’t have to be. The reality is Banchero is a young star in a great matchup against the Grizzlies.
Value
Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, $5,600 — Bobby is balling. He isn’t starting, but he’s playing 30 minutes. Second-unit minutes are precious. He matches up with weaker opponents and carries a significant usage rate. His shots are up and his usage rate is up. The Hawks boost the Bucks’ pace, and the Hawks are thin in the front court.
Jake LaRavia, Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic, $4,400 — Don’t expect seven 3-pointers on Saturday. That’s not necessary on a micro-slate. Another 9.3x value night (Mar. 27 vs. the Lakers) would be great, but it’s not necessary with a small player pool at DraftKings. Minutes and usage rate are the priority. Laravia checks both boxes. He’s returned a value of 5x or greater in nine of his last 12 games,
Center
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, $11,000 — It’s ludicrous to fade Antetokounmpo on a micro slate. He can’t be faded on a normal slate. The Greek Freak got freaky on Tuesday — 82.75 DKFP. Overtime and 47 minutes inflated that total. The Hawks’ pace and weak defense inflate fantasy points, too. Antetokounmpo has exceeded 70 DKFP in regulation plenty of times. He won’t need OT in this matchup.
Value
Bruno Fernando, Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks, $4,400 — It’s become par for the course to make a Disney joke in the Bruno blurb. It’s tired because Bruno has become a regular DFS NBA value pick. The Hawks are thin in the front court. Bruno is playing over 20 minutes with a usage rate over 20%. That makes him viable on normal slate let alone a micro slate.
Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies, $4,200 — The king of small slates is Jonathan Isaac. The minutes aren’t great, but this NBA DFS value pick works. He’s the NBA microwave play. The sample size is big enough for DFS. It’s almost big enough to qualify Isaac as the best sixth-man in the NBA. Isaac has scored at least 20 DKFP in eight of the last nine games. The one miss was against Charlotte on Mar. 19. He played 8 minutes, but still earned 14.5 DKFP in those limited minutes.
Other Option: Brandon Clarke ($3,300)
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
