It is tough not to view the Game 1 loss to the Nuggets as a missed opportunity from the Los Angeles Clippers’ perspective. They led by as many as 15 points during the game, Michael Porter Jr. was limited to just three points, and the Russell Westbrook roller coaster was in full effect.
But it is a seven-game series for a reason, and Los Angeles will be looking to even up the series tonight. The Clippers are narrow one-point favorites and -118 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets hold -102 odds of getting the win, and the game total is set at 217.5 points.
After an overtime battle in the series opener, here are my three favorite prop bets for Game 2 of this Western Conference battle.
James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (-110)
After an incredibly impressive regular season from James Harden, the 35-year-old set the tone for this Clippers team right from the opening tip in Game 1. He exploded for 15 points in the first quarter and finished the matchup with 32 points and 11 assists despite the loss. He is the engine of this Clippers team and will hopefully get some improved help from the rest of the roster. Neither Kawhi Leonard nor Norman Powell played up to their standard of expectation, which resulted in Harden attempting 22 shots, seven more than any other player on the team.
Even with him playing a more score-first role, Harden still managed to tally 11 assists in the series opener. The two-time assist champion averaged 8.7 assists per game across the regular season and 9.7 assists per game in games played with Leonard. Harden tallied over 9.5 assists in six of the final seven regular-season games and tallied as many as 16 assists against the Nuggets already this season. Denver also allowed the second-most assists to opponents during the regular season.
Expect Leonard and Powell to have better offensive success in this game and take some scoring responsibility off of Harden’s plate. The team will also continue to count on Ivica Zubac as a lob threat and a roll man. Harden is one of the smartest passers the NBA has seen, and he will have an answer for everything thrown his way. Count on him to deliver as a playmaker again and record over 9.5 assists tonight.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 12.5 Points (-125)
It was a nightmare start to the playoffs for Michael Porter Jr. He was benched due to his struggles and finished with just three points and four rebounds in his 26 minutes of play. Porter Jr. shot 1-for-4 from the field and was a -8 in the two-point victory. Denver made the right call dropping him to the bench and it cannot afford for him to play like this moving forward. However, don’t expect the door to shut on the $179 million man just yet, and I am buying the dip on his scoring output in the second matchup.
Across the 77 games that Porter Jr. played in the regular season, he averaged 18.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. The Missouri product shot 39.5% from beyond the three-point arc on 6.4 perimeter shots per game and took a career-high 13.4 field-goal attempts across the regular season. Porter Jr. scored over 12.5 points in 63 of the 77 games he played.
Los Angeles deserves credit for its high-level defense, which has been on display all season, but Porter Jr.’s struggles felt more his own doing than how the Clippers were defending him. He has averaged 13.4 points per game or greater in every playoff run except for his rookie season and is coming off an impressive regular season. I am taking the drop on this scoring prop and expecting Porter Jr. to get back to looking like himself in this Game 2 matchup by scoring over 12.5 points.
Nikola Jokic to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+165)
There is a case to be made that Ivica Zubac is the most difficult postseason matchup Nikola Jokic has faced at the center position. The Clippers’ big man has had a career year, taking his game to new heights that many thought were impossible and being named a finalist for the Most Improved award as a result. Zubac stands 7 feet tall with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and he averaged 16.8 points, 12.6 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in the regular season. Jokic is too talented to be fully neutralized, but Zubac makes him work for it at a rate that very few players can.
In the opening game of the series, Jokic finished with 29 points, 12 assists and nine rebounds. He shot 12-for-24 from the field and 1-for-4 from beyond the three-point arc. Jokic’s three-point production has been an area of improvement this season, with him connecting on 41.7% of his long-range shots while attempting a career-high 4.7 per game. He connected on three or more perimeter shots in 23 games this season, including making seven three-pointers against this Clippers team in the early parts of the season.
With Zubac capable of holding up on the interior better than most matchups and 46 minutes of action on Jokic’s body from the first game in mind, expect the Nuggets’ star to show an increased willingness from the perimeter. Over his past nine games, he is attempting 5.8 perimeter shots per game and has made 42.3% of these attempts. Expect an increased focus on getting Zubac out to the perimeter to open up the entirety of the offense, with Jokic leading the charge through his three-point shooting. The standard prop bet is set at 1.5 made three-pointers on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over favored at -175 odds. I am taking it a step further and taking a stab at the +165 odds for the three-time MVP to make three triples tonight.
