For a while, the first-round series between the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons seemed like an upset, as some third-quarter apathy on the home side’s part threatened to allow the Pistons to steal back home-court advantage. But a 21-0 fourth-quarter run by New York thwarted that, and the thousands of fans both inside and outside Madison Square Garden (the latter included me) left happy.
Detroit will hope to bounce back at 7:30 p.m., when Game 2 tips off in the Big Apple.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Knicks are 6.5-point favorites (-258 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 220.5. Meanwhile, the Pistons are +210 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
The fourth-quarter run must’ve made the public believers in New York, because an overwhelming majority of bettors backed the Knicks, as well as an even percentage of the handle. Every member of New York’s rotation made clutch plays on both sides of the ball during that fourth-quarter run, and Detroit’s inexperience showed at times on Saturday, coughing up 19 turnovers. The public is clearly expecting some regression to the mean from Pistons forward Tobias Harris (25 points) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (19), as well as more of an offensive impact from Mikal Bridges (eight points). Detroit won the season series, 3-1, but the Knicks were missing a starter in two of them.
Unsurprisingly, then, bettors are also widely backing New York to cover the 6.5-point spread. It has gone 41-41-1 against the spread so far this season — winning in Game 1, in which the spread was an even seven points — while the Pistons are 42-39-2. Big-money bettors are even more gung-ho on the Knicks than the general public, as they’ve attracted 72% of the handle despite accounting for only 60% of the total bets. New York certainly enters the game in hotter form than the Pistons, who lost six of their last eight regular-season games, failing to cover the spread in any of their defeats.
The public is also relatively high on both teams’ offenses, with 64% of all bets coming in on the teams to combine for more than 220.5 points. There’s certainly logic behind that: the Knicks scored the ninth-most points in the league this season, including the eighth-most at Madison Square Garden, which will certainly be rocking tonight. Three of New York’s last five games — and four of Detroit’s last five — have gone over the point total, as the Pistons’ defense slipped below league average in the last few weeks of the season. The over has also hit in a slight majority of both teams’ games so far this season.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Josh Hart Under 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
- Ausar Thompson Under 5.5 Rebounds (-110)
- Jalen Brunson 30+ Points (+100)
- Jalen Duren Under 10.5 Rebounds (-115)
- Malik Beasley Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Bettors clearly are high on both teams’ ability to stop the other from crashing the boards, which is fair: during the regular season, the Knicks allowed the second-fewest rebounds per game and the Pistons tied for the sixth-fewest.
Indeed, Hart didn’t make as big of an impact as usual in Game 1, snagging just seven boards (two offensive), and he’s only recorded double-digit rebounds once in four games against Detroit between the regular season and playoffs. In normal circumstances, it’s hard to expect a six-foot-four player to record double-digit rebounds, but after January 1, Hart averaged 10.3 boards per game and reached double digits 26 times in 45 games, including in each of his final three games of the season. But J.B. Bickerstaff guarded him mostly with Duren, a six-foot-10 big who averages 10.3 rebounds per game, limiting his effectiveness on the glass.
Duren, too, only grabbed six boards in Game 1, effectively stymied by Towns, who particularly dominated the defensive glass during New York’s fourth-quarter run. In five games against the Knicks this season, Duren has only snagged 11 or more boards once, and it came in a Pistons win on April 10 in which Hart didn’t play. Fading Duren is a better bet than fading Thompson, who has snagged six or more boards in two of his three games this season against New York, has a 44-inch vertical, and will likely spend most of his time guarding the six-foot-two Brunson.
The other two most popular bets are fairly likely, though. +100 odds on Brunson to score 30 or more points is fairly friendly, given that he memorably did so in five straight games during the Knicks’ 2024 playoff run — averaging 42.0 points and 9.4 assists per game across that stretch — and dropped 34 points on Saturday night while posting the fifth-highest usage rate of any player in the first game of these playoffs. Thompson wasn’t particularly effective at slowing him down — the southpaw scored seven points on three-for-six shooting when guarded by him — and if Thompson can’t slow down Brunson, nobody on Detroit’s roster can. Beasley, a Sixth Man of the Year finalist, has scored 20 or more points in each of his last three games, much less P/R/A.
