The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Purdue Boilermakers hook up in Detroit, MI on Friday night with a spot in the Elite 8 on the line with both entering as two of the best offenses in the nation this season.
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-5.5, 154.5)
The Boilermakers are the more overall efficient offense, ranking second in the nation in points scored on a per-possession basis while Gonzaga ranks fourth in this category. However, Gonzaga scores 2.5 more points per 100 possessions in road games than Purdue.
While 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey is figuratively and literally a big advantage for Purdue in the postseason, what gets forgotten about with the Boilermakers is their outside shooting, ranking first in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 40.9%.
The drop-off for Purdue’s outside shooting on the road is quite large, though, as it makes 45% of its 3-point shots at home compared to just 37% on the road. Gonzaga shoots 36.3% from 3-point range overall and 35.9% from the outside in road games.
While Purdue has the better road 3-point shooting defense, allowing opponents to make 31.7% of 3’s in road and neutral court games, Gonzaga is at 33% and allows a full point less per 100 possessions on defense in road games than Purdue does, which ranks 44th overall. Purdue ranks 56th.
Gonzaga is also one of the few teams that can come close to measuring up with Purdue, who leads the nation in road rebound rate, as the Bulldogs rank 11th in this category as four of the Bulldogs’ top six scorers have averaged at least four rebounds per game and are one of the best at guarding inside the arc.
The success Purdue has at crashing the glass does not translate to guarding 2-point shots as the Boilermakers ranks 60th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage with Gonzaga ranked 10th in this category.
The Bulldogs are one of the few teams left that can come close to matching all of Purdue’s strength and will push them to the brink on Friday.
The Play: Gonzaga +5.5
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