The NBA playoffs are off and running. The first four games of the opening round started yesterday, and the other four series will begin today.
The Memphis Grizzlies will face the Oklahoma City Thunder starting at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, the defending champion Boston Celtics will host the Orlando Magic, with this game tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET. In the night slate, the Miami Heat will face the Cleveland Cavaliers before the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets conclude the night in a matchup beginning at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Rotations tighten as the stars step to center stage with the playoff setting raising the stakes. This makes it a bit more difficult to find bargain plays, but also far more valuable to find this inside edge. Here are my three top value options on the DFS slate set to outperform their DraftKings price point in the playoff series openers.
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PG Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat, $4,500
A bit expensive from the value perspective, but Ty Jerome has been downright awesome for this Cavaliers team this season. The 27-year-old has been one of the best bench players in the league this season, averaging 12.5 points, 3.4 assists, and 2.5 rebounds in his 19.9 minutes per game. Jerome is shooting 43.9% from beyond the three-point arc and has been a necessary spark at several points this season.
Overall, Jerome is averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring, which ranks sixth on this Cavaliers team. He has tallied as many as 49.2 fantasy points in a game this season and closed the regular season scoring above his average in seven straight games. He has had success against this Heat team this season, scoring 28.0, 36.2, and 22.2 fantasy points in his three matchups with Miami during the regular season.
The Heat have momentum on their side after winning back-to-back play-in games to earn the postseason opportunity. They did an impressive job asserting themselves defensively in these games, especially against the Bulls, who were held to just 90 total points. Expect Miami’s game plan to be mucking the game up on the defensive end and leaning on this for their team’s success. Jerome will be a necessary offensive weapon to provide some life. especially with the bulk of the perimeter attention sure to be on Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Miami ranks 17th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed, and Jerome should be able to exploit this weakness. While the rotations will tighten in this playoff environment, Jerome is an important enough part of this Cavaliers team to see guaranteed minutes, and if the game plays out in his favor, his role could expand. Look for him to deliver in his opportunities and outperform his DraftKings price point in his playoff debut.
SG Buddy Hield, Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets, $3,300
The final matchup of the NBA slate will have the most attention on it, taking place between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors. This budding rivalry is a clash of styles as the youthful Rockets will challenge the four-time champions, who added Jimmy Butler at the deadline to keep the window to win open. Houston is loaded with high-level athletes who want to play physical and can throw a team off their game on any given night. In the most recent matchup between these two teams, Steph Curry was limited to just three points on 1-for-10 shooting from the field. While Curry is too talented for this to be a frequent occurrence, limiting the two-time scoring champion is sure to be at the top of the priority list.
Buddy Hield’s minutes have been variable this season, but this is a matchup where his shooting should be necessary. He is averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game on the season and has shown some nice flashes against the Rockets. In the four matchups against Houston, Hield logged 25:06, 13:56, 35:02, and 27:01 of game time. This has resulted in fantasy outputs of 44.2, 14.2, 31.0, and 7.2 fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring.
How Hield’s first opportunity for minutes goes in this game likely dictates what his workload will look like. But his perimeter shooting should prove valuable in this matchup as the Rockets lean on their defensive-minded approach. This is a risky play, but there will be at least one game in this series where Hield gets hot from beyond the three-point arc and gives this Warriors team some significant life. Hield has exploded for as many as 46.5 fantasy points in a game based on DraftKings scoring this season, and one scoring outburst from the sharpshooter could completely change the outlook of your DraftKings contest. It is worth taking a chance this happens in the opening game.
C Steven Adams, Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors, $3,100
The re-emergence of Steven Adams was a significant storyline in the second half of the season for the Rockets. The 31-year-old missed all of last season due to injury and was limited to just 13.7 minutes per game this year overall. But Adams carved out a nice niche for himself late in the season with the Rockets getting some impressive production out of their lineups with both Adams and Alperen Sengun on the floor. One of the biggest weaknesses of this Warriors team is their interior production, with the team functioning most optimally with Draymond Green serving as the center. Kevon Looney, Gui Santos, and Quinten Post will also get opportunities, but the Warriors prefer to play without a true center whenever they can.
Expect the Rockets to attempt to exploit this by leaning on Adams in the middle and forcing the Warriors’ hand. The New Zealand native played 20+ minutes in seven of his final 12 games, averaging 6.8 points and 7.6 rebounds during this stretch. Adams is averaging just 14.2 fantasy points on the season, but has produced at a higher rate of late, including scoring 39.0 fantasy points in a game within the past month.
Golden State does not true answer for the size of Adams and Sengun on the floor together, and expect this to be one of the storylines of the series. Adams has a bit more limited ceiling for his fantasy output compared to the names above, but there is a pathway to a double-double for the veteran if the game script plays out correctly. It will be interesting to see how Ime Udoka attacks the matchup in the season opener, but look for him to exploit the mismatch and allow Adams to impose himself on the interior. Getting a $3,100 is a comfortable price point that allows you to fit some more notable names at the top of your roster while getting a respectable output.
