The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks will continue their first-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Tuesday, with the Pacers looking to even the score while the Bucks try to continue holding serve at home. Milwaukee smashed Indiana 109-94 in Game 1 of the series Sunday thanks in large part to the efforts of Damian Lillard, who tallied 35 points and hit six triples.
Bennedict Mathurin is done for the season for Indiana. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains sidelined for the Bucks with a calf strain. He’s officially considered doubtful for Game 2, and Milwaukee’s Game 1 victory may have bought the star some additional time to rehab his injury.
The Bucks are 1-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 223.5. Milwaukee is -115 on the moneyline while Indiana is -105.
Pacers vs. Bucks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Bucks -1
The Pacers were one of the best teams at bouncing back after a loss during the regular season, going 23-11-2 ATS in the category. The Bucks were 23-26 ATS after a win. Even though the performance of Lillard will be praised, it was Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis who were arguably the difference in this game. After all, Pascal Siakam had 36 points for the Pacers. Indiana outrebounded Milwaukee and had one more made free throw, so the only edge came in shooting efficiency. That’s more likely to normalize than the other metrics.
Despite all this, it’s hard to think Indiana will magically turn things around to the level of taking them in what is essentially a pick ‘em. The Bucks showed why they were one of the best teams at home this season, and why they made the trade for Lillard. I’ll take Milwaukee to win Game 2 and take a 2-0 series lead.
Over/Under: Under 223.5
Despite being one of the top scoring offenses in the regular season, the Pacers were 17-22-2 to the over as the road team. The Bucks went 23-18 to the over as the home team. Even if the shooting percentages do normalize a bit, I think Milwaukee’s game plan to slow things down a bit is still going to keep this total under 223.5.