With the 82-game regular season grind and opening day of the playoffs underway, the action we have been waiting for has arrived. The first four games of the playoffs kicked off yesterday, while the other four series will get underway today.
Starting at 1:00 p.m. ET, the Memphis Grizzlies will face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder after earning their way out of the play-in tournament. Then, at 3:30 p.m. ET, the defending champion Boston Celtics will host the Orlando Magic after their statement play-in win. At 7:00 p.m. ET, the Cleveland Cavaliers will play the Miami Heat. Finally, tipping off at 9:30 p.m. ET, the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will face off in the only matchup of the day with a spread under double-digits.
With four games of high-intensity playoff action set to take place, here are my favorite player prop bets in each matchup for the first Sunday of the postseason.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-120)
The depth of the Thunder is a large reason for their historic point differential and the 68-14 record they produced. But the bright lights of the playoffs are where the stars shine the brightest, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will welcome this challenge. The likely MVP is coming off a regular season in which he averaged a league-leading 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game.
Gilgeous-Alexander sets the tone for this Thunder team on both sides of the ball but is especially responsible for spearheading the offense. There are enough other threats around him to prevent the Grizzlies from leaning on a game plan of forcing the ball out of his hands by throwing various double teams and traps his way. The reigning scoring champion has had an answer for every defense he has faced thus far. This includes the Grizzlies as the Thunder star has averaged 36.25 points across the four matchups this season. Gilgeous-Alexander has tallied 32 or more points in all four matchups and has eclipsed 40 points once.
Memphis finished the regular season ranked 24th in opponents’ points per game and is coming off a pair of grueling play-in games. While there is sometimes concern over rust for the team that was not playing, Oklahoma City is young and hungry. They have been waiting all year for this moment and will be looking to set the tone for a deep playoff run in this opening matchup. Look for Gilgeous-Alexander to set the tone with his play in a matchup he has had success against and put on a show for the home crowd by recording over 32.5 points for the fourth time against the Grizzlies this season, and as he did in four playoff games last year.
Paolo Banchero to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+235)
The matchup between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic is a fascinating clash of styles that very clearly favors the defending champions. The Boston Celtics attempted 48.2 three-point attempts per game this season, more than any other team in NBA history. It was a notable increase from the 42.5 perimeter shots they attempted per game last year, and Boston is connecting at a 38.8% rate. In contrast, the Orlando Magic attempt 35.3 perimeter shots per game, the 23rd-most in the league, and connect at just a 31.8% rate. Not only is this the worst three-point percentage in the league, but the worst perimeter percentage any team has shot from beyond the three-point arc since the Los Angeles Lakers in 2015-16.
While three-point production is not the first thing that comes to mind when discussing Paolo Banchero, someone on this Magic team must step up to narrow this three-point gap. These two teams faced off twice in the regular season while Banchero was in the lineup. In the first matchup, Boston outscored Orlando 51-15 from beyond the three-point arc. This type of gap is impossible to win with, and Orlando will need to increase their three-point volume if they are to have a chance.
Banchero is averaging 25.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. The former number one overall pick attempted a career-high 5.9 three-point attempts per game but connected at just a 32.0% rate. While I also like the -130 odds for Banchero to record over 1.5 made three-pointers as well, taking a chance on the +235 odds for Banchero to knock down three is really appealing. He has reached this total in 16 of the 46 games this season while connecting on a pair in 25 games. Look for Banchero to do everything possible to keep the Magic in this, with it requiring him to let it fly from the perimeter.
Darius Garland Over 17.5 Points (-110)
The Cleveland Cavaliers made a statement from start to finish this regular season, holding possession of first place from nearly wire-to-wire. They finished with a record of 64-18 and will face the Miami Heat, who possess a bit more pedigree than typically comes with an eighth seed. Donovan Mitchell is the epicenter of the Cavaliers’ offensive attack, and both sides are sure to be aware of this. The star guard is also battling an ankle injury that kept him out of the final four games of the regular season. The time off will be helpful, and reports seem positive on his outlook, but it is worth noting ahead of the opening game.
With Mitchell set to be at the top of the defensive priorities and the ankle issue potentially limiting, expect the production of Darius Garland to be necessary. The Vanderbilt product has stepped up as a proper backcourt co-star this season and earned his second All-Star appearance. Garland averaged 20.6 points, 6.7 assists, and 2.9 rebounds during the regular season. He shot a career-best 47.2% from the field and knocked down 40.1% of his three-point attempts. Garland tallied over 17.5 points in 49 of the 75 games he played this season, including one of the two matchups with the Heat.
While Miami still carries a reputation as a defensive-minded team, the production has not exactly matched it this season. They finished the regular season ranked seventh in opponents’ points allowed, 12th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 14th in opponents’ three-point percentage. With Davion “Off Night” Mitchell likely to be tasked with Donovan Mitchell, expect Garland to take on some additional offensive responsibility. The scrappy guard is capable of getting hot as well as anyone in the league. The 17.5 point prop line is too low based on how he has performed, and count on Garland to rise to the challenge in his 18th playoff matchup.
Draymond Green Under 6.5 Rebounds (-120)
There will be plenty of eyes on the Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets series, with it being a fascinating clash of eras. The Rockets are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2019-20 and are loaded with young talent, while the Golden State Warriors added Jimmy Butler to their experienced core with the hopes of making another championship run. Despite entering as the lower seed, Golden State are the favorite in the series. For better or for worse, Draymond Green is sure to be in the middle of everything with plenty of physicality expected in this series.
Across the regular season, Green averaged 9.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. The four-time All-Star was held to under 6.5 rebounds in 38 of the 68 games he played this season. He was held under this number in three of the four matchups against the Rockets, with the matchup going to overtime in the lone game that he did eclipse 6.5.
Houston is a tough, physical team that will look to dominate the boards. They have found some significant success playing a double-big lineup with Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun each on the floor. The Rockets led the league in total rebounds per game this season and rank fourth in opponents’ rebounds allowed. Golden State will need Draymond Green to get in the mix and impose himself, but this is as difficult a matchup as it will come. He has struggled to reach this number in general, and the difficult matchup only increased my concern. Expect Green to have some struggles in the series opener and be held to under 6.5 rebounds against this athletic Rockets team.
