Tonight at Fenway, the Red Sox will show why they’re a force in the AL East. They’re coming for the White Sox, and there’s no slowing down this freight train. Having said that, there’s really no need for the freight train to gas it up to full speed against a greasy paper bag from the south side of Chicago. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for tonight’s Friday baseball game between the Red Sox and White Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. White Sox prediction, preview
The Red Sox are coming off a 1-0 win against Tampa Bay, bringing them to 10-10 on the season. They’ve won three of their last four, and despite missing Wilyer Abreu, their offense remains strong. Alex Bregman leads the charge with a scorching .321 average, 4 home runs, and 16 RBIs. Trevor Story’s hitting .299 with 3 home runs, and Jarren Duran’s bat is heating up—he’s on a four-game hitting streak and could have a solid outing against a White Sox staff that’s struggled to contain opposing hitters. Even without Abreu, the Red Sox lineup still ranks 10th in MLB for batting average (.247) and 14th in runs scored (4.30 per game). Their .320 on-base percentage is good for eighth, which shows they’ve been effective in creating scoring opportunities.
On the mound, the Red Sox turn to Hunter Dobbins for his first start of the season. In his 15 innings this year, he’s posted a 3.60 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. His control has been sharp, with just two walks, and he’s kept hitters to a .200 average against him. Dobbins isn’t going to dominate, but he’s proven he can keep a struggling offense like the White Sox at bay. The Sox’s bullpen, with a 4.16 team ERA (20th in MLB), has been solid, but they can be prone to blowups. Still, the combination of Dobbins and a top-tier bullpen should limit Chicago’s output.
Now, let’s talk about the White Sox. They’ve got problems—big ones. Sitting at 4-14, they have the worst batting average in the league (.196) and are ranked 28th in runs scored per game (3.0). Their 12 home runs rank 26th in the league, and their .296 slugging percentage is just brutal. Lenyn Sosa is one of the few bright spots, hitting .281, but Andrew Vaughn’s production has been nearly nonexistent, with just two home runs and eight RBIs. Luis Robert has struggled to get going, batting a dismal .136. Brooks Baldwin is tied with Vaughn with two home runs and eight RBIs, but there’s not much depth to this lineup.
Martín Pérez (1-0, 1.59 ERA) has been a standout, though it’s hard to expect him to carry this team for much longer. Over his 17 innings, Pérez has been nearly flawless, posting a 1.06 WHIP and holding opponents to a .224 batting average. He’s walked 8 batters, but his control has been good, and he’s kept hitters off balance. The problem for Pérez is that even with solid pitching, the White Sox offense can’t get going. The team’s 22nd-ranked pitching staff (4.26 ERA) won’t be able to cover up the offensive deficiencies. Pérez can only do so much when his lineup is barely producing.
Red Sox vs. White Sox pick, best bet
As for the betting trends, the Red Sox have won three of their last five at home following a win, and they’ve covered the run line in four of their last five after a victory. The White Sox? You can imagine. They’ve lost six straight road games and are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as underdogs. They’ve failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine against AL East teams following a home loss. The trends are clear—Boston is the more reliable pick tonight.
The Red Sox’s advantage on the mound, in the batter’s box, and in recent form makes them a lock to cover the spread.
Take Boston -1.5. They’ve got this one under control.
Best bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+100) vs. Chicago White Sox
Let’s get Fenway rocking on an April evening with a Sox cover; tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
