It’s a long season and sometimes you just have to bask in the absurdity.
Tonight, for what I will assume is the first time ever, the Yankees will play at George M. Steinbrenner Field as the visitor, as the team’s Spring Training home is now the temporary domain of the division-rival Rays. It should be weird for all parties involved. Isn’t that fun?
Keep on reading for a full breakdown of the game and a couple betting leans.
Yankees vs. Rays prediction, preview
As always, the Rays’ lineup isn’t littered with household names, but it’s a unit that has really been getting the job done so far this season — last night’s shutout notwithstanding. Entering play on Thursday, Tampa owns the league’s third-highest wRC+ at 122, trailing only the Diamondbacks (124) and the Yankees (140). The Rays have been particularly fantastic when hitting at their Yankee Stadium replica, with a 135 wRC+ in home games.
This should be making Will Warren nervous. Or, it should at least be making the public slightly afraid to back the rookie RHP. Warren’s been underwhelming in his first three starts of the season despite a .212 BABIP, pitching to a 5.14 ERA and a 4.97 xERA. For his brief MLB career, the 25-year-old has also surrendered a whopping .400 wOBA to opposing left-handed hitters — which is very much not a formula for success against a Kevin Cash club. Tampa Bay loves a platoon and its seen great success with the strategy so far in 2025, specifically with the likes of Jonathan Aranda and Kameron Misner. Expect to see at least five LHBs in the Rays’ lineup this evening.
Finally, let’s discuss Taj Bradley. The former top prospect had some flashes of brilliance in 2024, yet it seems like things are really coming together in 2025. Thanks primarily to elite average fastball velocity (96.8), Bradley owns a 30.9% strikeout rate across 17.0 innings of work. He’s also in possession of a 3.26 xERA and a 3.30 FIP. There’s a very real chance that the Rays’ system has created yet another ace.
Yankees vs. Rays pick, best bet
This is essentially a pick ’em on the moneyline, so my lean would be to back the Rays in what is a home game, even if the Yankees are the ones paying the rent. Tampa is 8-7 at Steinbrenner Field to begin the season and Bradley’s won both his outings in Florida.
However, my best bet is a prop. The aforementioned Aranda is maybe the hottest hitter on the planet who no one is talking about. That’s what happens when you’re a platoon bat for a team known to lack star power and fans. In his 49 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching in 2025, Aranda is slashing .432/.469/.795 with a 264 wRC+. Obviously, the good times won’t last at quite this pace forever, but given Warren’s struggles in opposite-hand matchups, this is the perfect time to back Tampa’s 26-year-old slugger.
Best Bet: Jonathan Aranda 2+ Total Bases (+140)
Aranda mashes RHPs and has multiple hits in each of his last three starts.
Strong Lean: Rays ML (-110)
Bradley is in the midst of a breakout and I like him over Warren in this pitching matchup.
