It’s been a long and grueling NBA regular season, but with 82 games out of the way, now the real fun begins. The postseason is officially here as teams duke it out in the Play-In Tournament for the right to advance to the real-deal playoffs.
What year is it again? The matchup between the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds feels familiar thanks to some Play-In Tournament history between the participants. Wednesday evening marks the third straight year in which the Chicago Bulls square off with the Miami Heat at some point on the play-in slate. Sure, these aren’t teams with their names on the marquee, but it should be a sneaky-fun contest with win-or-go-home stakes.
Bulls vs. Heat preview, prediction
Look, is this game just a little bit nasty? Sure, but that’s what makes it so exciting. Neither team is a real contender, but both have their share of high-level moments and could really shake up the playoff picture when the winner takes on the loser of Hawks/Magic on Friday.
The home-team Bulls come in as the ninth seed, and while they’re largely considered one of the Association’s middling franchises, their success has flown under the radar since the All-Star break. Chicago actually holds a top-10 win percentage with a 17-10 record over the season’s second half. Believe it or not, the team’s 121.5 points per game is the second-highest mark in the entire league over that span. While they haven’t been particularly efficient in doing it (12th in FG%, 17th in 3P%, 14th in OFFRTG), their league-leading pace buys extra possessions and tires out opponents by the end of high-scoring shootouts. Surprisingly, the Bulls also rank 10th in defensive rating and rebounding percentage since the All-Star Game despite rolling out lineups with what feels like four point guards at a time.
The reason for their recent success? Much of the credit goes to the duo of Coby White and Josh Giddey, who have taken a significant leap since All-Star Weekend. White averaged 18.2 PPG before the break but his scoring average sits at 24.5 PPG since then. Giddey’s statistical bump is arguably even more impressive. The Australian averaged 12.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.4 assists before the break — his post-break splits read 21.2 points, 10.7 boards, and 9.3 dimes, nearly a triple-double per night. When these guys are on, they’re on. The question is whether they can do it in this environment as they fight for their postseason lives.
Meanwhile, the Heat had no such second-half surge after trading away a disgruntled Jimmy Butler for Andrew Wiggins and other assorted pieces. With a 37-45 record, including a 12-17 stint after the break, Miami limps into the Play-In Tournament following their worst regular season since the 2014-15 campaign. Tyler Herro has shown growth and made his first All-Star Game, but Bam Adebayo struggled throughout much of the year as the Heat lacked the same presence as in years past. The team ranked ninth in defensive rating over the second half of the season, but the offense just couldn’t keep up an average of just 112.0 points per game, 20th among all teams.
The off-court drama certainly played a role in the team’s regression, but the sun just hasn’t seemed to shine as brightly on Miami Beach as it used to. Wiggins is a perfectly serviceable player with averages of 19.0 PPG and a handful of boards and assists, but the Heat just can’t find their rhythm as a cohesive unit for more than a couple games at a time. Do they have what it takes to re-embrace founding principles of Heat Culture and lock down this surprisingly hot Bulls offense? That’ll be the story of the evening.
Bulls vs. Heat pick, best bet
Both of these teams have been here before… several times, actually. Play-in experience, or lack thereof, isn’t really a major concern. It’s a little bit easier to trust Miami’s guys since they’re more battle-tested in the postseason department, but that doesn’t really feel like a major factor.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Bulls as one-point favorites, though the Moneyline is largely a toss-up with Chicago holding a narrow margin as the favorite at -115 compared to -105 for the Heat. The game total is 219 points, which does feel a tad low given Chicago’s pace of play. Notably, the Bulls downed the Heat in all three of their regular-season matchups with an average margin of victory of 7.33 points.
Neither team is great, but one is certainly more consistent lately than the other one is. Based on their form over the second half of the regular season, the Bulls have the makings of a team which can fight their way out of the play-in and into the playoffs. Really, they’re exactly what this format was created for since they’re easy to write off, but can’t be counted out — just as the Lakers found out weeks ago when Chicago stunned them with multiple lead changes and an improbable buzzer beater. Contrast that to life for a post-Butler Heat squad, which is still strange as they adjust to reality. It’s been fairly clear that team lies face-down, dead in the water through most of the campaign.
Might it be close? Yes, but the Bulls are running and see nothing but the red of Miami jerseys in front of them. They’re scrappy enough to take the latest round of this Play-In Tournament rivalry.
