The long grind of the NBA regular season is over, but the pressure has just begun with the Play-in Tournament. Teams in seeds seven through 10 in each conference with square off among themselves to earn the seventh and eighth seeds.
In the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks will face off in the 7 vs. 8 game. The winner of this matchup will face the defending champion Boston Celtics in the opening-round playoffs. The loser of this game will play the winner of the 9 vs. 10 game, taking place between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. Whichever team can win that matchup will face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the opening round.
In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors will face the Memphis Grizzlies after coming up short in overtime to the Los Angeles Clippers in the final game of the regular season. The winner of this matchup will face the Houston Rockets in the opening round of the playoffs, while the loser will take on the winner of the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks in the 9 vs. 10 game. The eventual winner of this matchup will have the daunting task of playing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the opening round of the playoffs.
The play-in tournament will be kicked off in these 7 vs. 8 matchups, with the loser of each game waiting for the winner of the 9 vs. 10 game. The Orlando Magic will host the Atlanta Hawks in the opening matchup and are five-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. In the later slate, the Warriors and Grizzlies will play, with Golden State entering as seven-point favorites.
With these first two games kicking off the postseason, here are my favorite prop bets for the opening night of play-in action between the seventh and eighth seeds.
Trae Young Over 10.5 Assists (+120)
All eyes will be on Trae Young as he steps to center stage, where he has been at his best before. The Hawks star is coming off his fourth All-Star appearance and averaged 24.6 points and a league-leading 11.6 assists during the regular season. The threat of Young as a scorer will continue to open things up, but his playmaking may be the more notable part of his game at this stage of his career.
This is especially the case against this Orlando Magic defense. During the regular season, the Magic held opponents to just 105.5 points per game, which was the best rate in the NBA. The lack of shooting on the offensive side of the ball has forced Orlando’s hand to become a more defensive-minded team, and they have adjusted to this as the season progressed.
The injury to Jalen Johnson changed the outlook for this Hawks team in a major way this season, and Atlanta is fairly limited in their amount of offensive creators. Expect the Magic to focus on stopping Young, especially with Young exploding for 38 points in one of the regular season matchups between these teams.
Young averaged 11.6 assists per game in the regular season and tallied over 10.5 assists in 44 of the 76 games he has played. Expect the Magic to force others to beat them in this one-and-done matchup, and for Young to be forced to win the game with his passing. Young is one of the most gifted playmakers in the league, and getting +120 odds is great value for something he achieved in 57.9% of the regular season games.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+145)
After getting off to a 15-7 start to the season, it is tough not to be disappointed with the Magic fighting out of the play-in. Their lack of perimeter shooting has been the obvious Achilles heel for this team, with Orlando shooting just 31.8% from beyond the three-point arc this season. Not only is this the worst three-point percentage in the league, but it is the lowest perimeter percentage any team has produced since the Los Angeles Lakers shot 31.7% from beyond the arc in 2015-16. This is especially frustrating as the Magic attempted to fix this problem after ranking 24th in this category last year.
The biggest step the organization took was by signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a three-year, $66 million deal this offseason. The two-time NBA Champion shot 34.2% from beyond the three-point arc this season, which is his worst three-point percentage since 2015-16. For his career, Caldwell-Pope is a 36.7% three-point shooter, and he has connected at a 39.0% rate or better in each of the past four seasons.
All will be forgiven if Caldwell-Pope shows up in the big moments. His playoff pedigree is a large reason why this youthful Magic team elected to add the 31-year-old, and hopefully, his shooting ability will show back up at the right time. Atlanta ranks 16th in three-point attempts allowed and 28th in opponents’ three-point percentage. Caldwell-Pope has still connected on three or more three-pointers in 15 regular season games, including once against the Hawks. Expect Atlanta to be fully focused on selling out to stop Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner from attacking the basket and be willing to sacrifice these three-point looks. Caldwell-Pope will be the primary beneficiary, and getting +145 odds is worth taking a chance for this play-in battle.
Zach Edey Over 10.5 Rebounds (-120)
It has been an interesting rookie season for Zach Edey out in Memphis. His unique 7-foot-4 frame and post-oriented style of play made him one of the most controversial prospects in recent memory leading up to the draft. This did not stop the Grizzlies from selecting the Purdue product with the ninth overall pick, and he averaged 9.2 points and 8.3 rebounds across his 21.5 minutes per game this season.
Edey saw his level of opportunity expand as the season progressed, with his statistical output following. In eight games he played following the coaching change, Edey has averaged 9.3 points and 13.4 rebounds per game in his 27.9 minutes of action. Golden State is a bit limited on the interior, with Draymond Green likely to be matched up with Edey for stretches. Assuming Edey survives any attack or flagrant fouls in his direction, expect the Grizzlies to lean on Edey’s size and rebounding abilities. These teams last faced off on April 1st with Edey producing 16 rebounds in this matchup.
It does not seem coincidental that Edey’s level of opportunity has expanded following the coaching change. Golden State ranks 15th in opponents’ rebounds per game and 19th in opponents’ defensive rebounds allowed. There is no true answer for Edey’s sheer size, and he is more active than he sometimes gets credit for. Expect the rookie to impose himself on the glass and record over 10.5 rebounds in his first taste of postseason action.
Draymond Green Over 13.5 Assists & Rebounds (-115)
On the other side of the matchup with Edey, expect Draymond Green to make his impact felt as well. The four-time All-Star averaged 9.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game this season. Across the 29 games he has played alongside Jimmy Butler, Green averaged 9.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game.
While the introduction of Butler into the Golden State system has been a smoother process than many expected, there are still levels this team has not yet hit. Green has been a foundational part of this Warriors team throughout their four championships, and this will continue to be the case during this postseason opportunity. Even with the baggage he carries with him, Green’s production is necessary for this team. With Steph Curry set to command so much offensive attention, expect him to play mostly off-ball to create more shots and for Green to serve as a playmaker at a regular rate.
During the regular season, Green recorded over 13.5 assists and rebounds in 22 games, including twice against the Grizzlies. This is a matchup that I expect the experience to be evident for this Golden State team compared to Memphis. Look for Green to lead the charge and continue doing the dirty work in a way that equates to winning. Expect Green to lead the charge in reaching this total as a playmaker, but for him to do some damage rebounding the basketball as well. The addition of Butler has provided a spark in this entire Warriors team, and Green has been impacted by this. Expect this experienced Warriors team to feel the weight of the moment and the importance of avoiding the Thunder in the first round, with Green helping to lead the charge with his play.
