We are an immediate satisfaction society. Heck, it’s why MLB instituted the pitch clock and attempted to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time waaaaay down, if you’re looking for the quickest action on the board for baseball, it’s a NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Monday’s 10-game slate, which gets going in Pittsburgh at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-115)
It’s a little terrifying to take a NRFI bet at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which has the exact dimensions of the always hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, but this feels like good value on Monday. The main reason? The Red Sox haven’t been able to hit at all for over a week. Across the last seven days, a span where the team struggled to a 2-5 record against the Jays and White Sox, Boston has managed just a single home run. In fact, in that same span, the Red Sox are batting .206 as a club with a putrid .060 ISO and 52 wRC+. Yuck.
It’s not like the Rays are a quick-strike offensive attack, either. Tampa comes into Monday’s action sitting 20th in MLB in home runs (14) and 16th in ISO (.144). As always, the Rays have enough left-handed platoon bats to take full advantage of Tanner Houck’s splits, but this isn’t a lineup that strikes me full of fear.
On the other side of the matchup, Shane Baz will be working on extra rest after Tampa turned to Joe Boyle for a spot-start on Sunday. Baz has looked the part of a former top prospect through a pair of outings in 2025, allowing just two earned runs over 13.0 innings with 16 strikeouts. The best way to keep a team off the scoreboard is suppressing contact, and Baz has done that quite well early on.
New York Mets at Minnesota Twins (-125)
While the top of the Mets’ lineup is daunting, Joe Ryan is one of the better pitchers in the league that no one talks about. Not only does Ryan currently own a 2.65 ERA over his first three starts of the season — a stretch where he’s yet to issue a single free pass — but in 2024, among pitchers with 100 innings thrown, Ryan’s 2.87 xERA was the 10th-lowest mark in baseball. The right-hander is legitimately good and, thanks primarily to a devastating splitter, Ryan’s also held LHBs in check in 2025, having yet to surrender an extra-base hit to the 24 he’s faced. Hopefully, that continues on Monday in the first inning with Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and, maybe, Brandon Nimmo.
Opening Day starter Clay Holmes will be on the mound for New York, and while his surface stats aren’t amazing, Holmes has been a little unlucky with BABIP to begin 2025 (.410). A closer inspection honestly reveals some really good stuff from the converted reliever. In 14.2 innings, Holmes has struck out 20 and he’s yet to allow a single home run — the benefit of his patented hard sinker. Tonight feels like the night Holmes’ numbers normalize, especially in a matchup with a Twins squad hitting .208 with an 80 wRC+ for the season as a whole.
