Buckle up for a busy night of basketball as all 30 NBA teams are being called into action tonight. Two games are remaining on every team’s regular season schedule before each team has their postseason fate officially decided.
In the Eastern Conference, every team is locked into their place as either in the playoffs, in the play-in, or already eliminated. However, there is still some competition for the seedings and matchups within these tiers, with the Knicks and Pacers battling over the 3rd or 4th seed and the Bulls and Hawks competing for the 8th and 9th seed.
Things are much more wide open in the Western Conference. The Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks have clinched play-in opportunities, while the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets have clinched the top two seeds in the Conference. Outside this, things are wide open with the third-seeded Lakers and eighth-seeded Timberwolves being separated by just 2.0 games.
These final two games will decide the outcome of these seedings. Most notably tonight, the Denver Nuggets will play the Memphis Grizzlies, with Denver holding a one-game lead in the middle of the Western Conference standings. The Lakers will also play the Rockets, the Warriors will face the Trail Blazers, and the Clippers will take on the Kings across the full slate of games.
Across the full night of 15 NBA matchups, here are my favorite prop bets on the final Friday night of NBA regular season action.
Zaccharie Risacher Over 14.5 Points (-110)
This year’s number one overall pick in the draft has come into form during the home stretch of the season. While Zaccharie Risacher will not be the gold standard for how a top pick is evaluated, the Frenchman is coming off a career-high 38-point performance last night against the Nets in 35 minutes of play. He shot 15-for-20 from the field and 6-for-11 from beyond the three-point arc. While this has a strong case for Risacher’s most impressive professional performance thus far, his recent stretch of success extends several weeks.
On the season overall, Risacher is averaging 12.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in his 24.8 minutes per game. Since the All-Star break, he is averaging 15.0 points and 4.1 rebounds in his 26.6 minutes per game. He has tallied over 14.5 points in eight of the last 14 games.
Atlanta will face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight, who have a case for the most disappointing season in the entire league (although the Phoenix Suns would like a word). Since the All-Star break, Philadelphia ranks 29th in opponents’ points allowed, 28th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 30th in opponents’ three-point percentage. This will be the third time these two teams face off, with Risacher having scored 22 points in each game. With this matchup still holding some play-in seeding implications from the Hawks’ perspective, expect a full effort tonight. Look for Risacher to continue playing in attack mode and make a late Rookie of the Year push. Count on him recording over 14.5 points for the 24th time and third consecutive game against the Sixers.
Bobby Portis to Record 20+ Points & Rebounds (-135)
The Milwaukee Bucks sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with a 46-34 overall record but could slip to the sixth seed depending on the result of their final two games. They will face off with the Detroit Pistons tonight, who are currently in the sixth seed and have clinched their first playoff appearance since the 2018-19 season. Milwaukee recently got a boost from the return of Bobby Portis, who missed 25 games due to suspension for testing positive for a banned painkiller.
Across his first two games back, Portis is averaging 16.0 points and 9.0 rebounds. He has logged 29 and 22 minutes, and his importance within the team has grown with the absence of Damian Lillard. On the season overall, Portis is averaging 13.8 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. He has recorded 20+ combined points and rebounds in 26 of the 48 games he has played (54.2%) while sharing the floor with Lillard for most of these games. The Bucks have to replace the 24.9 points, 7.1 assists, and 4.7 rebounds Lillard was providing, and the early signs suggest Portis will play a role in this.
Expect Portis’ size and physicality to be necessary against this Pistons team and for the Arkansas product to assert himself. He has reached this total in both games since coming back from suspension, and has not played his best basketball yet. It is worth considering some of the alternate lines on this prop, but I am locking in Portis to record 20+ points and rebounds at -135 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ja Morant Over 26.5 Points (-115)
If nothing else, Ja Morant sure knows how to make some headlines. The Grizzlies star has brought on another avalanche of opinions following his new celebrations. Regardless, the star guard will prepare to match up with the other organization that surprisingly elected to fire their head coach. This matchup between the Nuggets and Grizzlies carries plenty of significance, with Memphis trailing by one game in the standings.
On the season overall, Morant is averaging 23.2 points and has only scored over 26.5 points in 16 of the 49 games he has played. However, his lack of on-ball opportunities was seemingly a driving force for the decision to make a coaching change, and Morant has responded by averaging 29.7 points per game since the firing and scoring over 26.5 points in four consecutive games leading into tonight.
The internal rift in the franchise involving Michael Malone seems to have more to do with his departure, but Denver has underwhelmed defensively in a major way this season. The Nuggets rank 24th in opponents’ points per game, 24th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 24th in opponents’ points in the paint.
Both teams are sure to be well aware of the seeding implications and ready to throw their best punch. But this is a matchup I love for Morant with Denver lacking any perimeter defenders who can stick with his quick-twitch athleticism nor the roster capabilities to properly build a wall around the rim to prevent interior scoring. This will be Morant’s first matchup against the Nuggets this year, but count on him making the most of the chance and record over 26.5 points for the fifth straight game with Denver having no answer for his skillset.
LeBron James Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-145)
In the final matchup of the loaded NBA slate, the Los Angeles Lakers will play the Houston Rockets. These teams are set to enter the playoffs through the second and third seeds in the Western Conference, as long as the Lakers can fight off the surge of teams behind them. It did not take long for Luka Doncic and LeBron James to get on the same page with this Lakers team shaping into a legitimate playoff threat. Even at 40 years old, James is averaging 24.6 points, 8.2 assists, and 7.9 rebounds per game.
One area where James has impressed, which has become especially noteworthy since the addition of Doncic, is his three-point shooting. The 21-time All-Star is shooting 37.8% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.7 perimeter shots per game. He also is shooting better when playing at the Crypto.com arena, as James has connected on 43.5% of his three-pointers in home games this season. He enters having made at least two three-pointers in three straight home games and five of his last six played in the arena. James has tallied over 1.5 made three-pointers in 25 of the 33 home games he has been available for this season.
Houston is a hard-nosed defensive-minded team but is locked into the second seed regardless of the results of the remaining two games. It would not be a surprise if they end up resting some players or limiting minutes with this in mind. In either case, look for James to continue attacking from the perimeter. This will be the third matchup between the two sides, with James shooting 2-for-4 and 4-for-7 from beyond the three-point arc in these two matchups. Look for James to maintain his level of three-point production and connect with at least two three-pointers tonight. While the -145 odds are steep, he had -180 odds of this prop on DraftKings Sportsbook in the previous game and this is a spot I am jumping on it.
