We are an immediate satisfaction society. Heck, it’s why MLB instituted the pitch clock and attempted to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time waaaaay down, if you’re looking for the quickest action on the board for baseball, it’s a NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Monday’s slate.
Twins at Royals NRFI (-120)
This is far from a matchup of aces, as Simeon Woods Richardson and Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for their respective teams. However, it’s not like either the Twins or the Royals have had all that much success scoring runs so far this season. In fact, you could make the case that Minnesota has been the most underwhelming lineup in all of baseball entering play on Monday. Through nine games, the Twins are hitting below the Mendoza line (.198), which has translated to league-worst marks in both wOBA (.262) and wRC+ (66). The Royals haven’t been that much more successful, sporting a .121 ISO and an 81 wRC+.
Meanwhile, Lorenzen is on the heels of posting a 3.31 ERA across 130.1 innings in 2024. Woods Richardson didn’t have an amazing rookie campaign last season, yet a 4.02 xERA over 28 starts does make him at least a league-average back-end starter. Again, you’re not banking on the pitchers in this spot. You’re picking on two struggling offenses.
Astros at Mariners NRFI (-135)
Let’s start with Logan Gilbert, who has looked about as good through two starts in 2025 as he ever has. Feel free to dismiss the RHP’s 2.19 xERA and a 1.42 FIP as small sample noise, but the really interesting development in Gilbert’s game has been his new-found ability to rack up whiffs. Despite averaging around a strikeout per inning throughout his career, Gilbert has managed a massive 40.9% strikeout rate across his first 12.0 innings of the season to go along with an equally gargantuan 20.6% swinging strike rate. Negating contact is the best way to keep runs off the board, which is exactly what Gilbert should do against an Astros lineup that’s floundered to a league-low .093 ISO in nine games.
Hayden Wesneski doesn’t profile nearly as well as Gilbert and he’s been far too prone to surrendering the long ball throughout his career — which means this prop could turn sour with one swing of Julio Rodriguez’s bat. Still, Seattle comes into Monday’s action hitting .213 with a .141 ISO. In the Mariners’ seven-game homestand to begin 2025, the team produced a paltry 2.57 runs per contest. T-Mobile Park is simply an awful place to hit. Let’s hope that continues to be true this evening for at least one inning.
