One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Moneyline road favorites coming off a loss
This play is cooking right now. Favorites have found themselves in this setting 19 times already, and they’ve responded by winning 15 times. That’s a 75.95% hit rate.
Last season, this system went 41-27 between March and April. A 60.29% success rate is a significant dip from how things have gone to open the season. In 2022, the system went 29-16, which equals out to a 64.44% success rate.
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Three games fit this system on Tuesday:
- BAL @ BOS
- ARI @ COL
- TB @ LAA
I like this system for both AL East favorites. The Diamondbacks may be the heaviest favorite of the bunch, but we know how messy things can get in Colorado.
More importantly, the Orioles should be heavier favorites vs. the Red Sox. It may be Boston’s home opener (and their celebration of the 2004 World Series team’s 20th anniversary), but the Red Sox have simply been the beneficiaries of a laughable opening schedule. As much as West Coast trips are tough on East Coast teams, the A’s are a Triple-A franchise and three of the Angels’s six wins have come against the pitiful Marlins.
Speaking of the Angels, it’s hard to imagine the Rays dropping back-to-back against them. Tampa’s offense hasn’t done a whole lot in the power department, particularly against lefties — whom they have a .068 ISO against so far — but that poor production can’t last.
SYSTEM PICK FOR APRIL 9
TBR -120
SYSTEM: Over on total when home underdog is coming off a win
This system offers crossover Same Game Parlay potential with the moneyline system noted above. But, keep in mind that just because one of these two systems is in play for a game, it does not mean that the other also is. An example of that is KC-HOU, which is a game that fits this system but does not fit the moneyline system noted above.
As for this system’s performance, it’s been in play 17 times to start 2024. The over has hit in 10 of those games, good for a 58.82% cover rate. And while this hit rate isn’t as strong as the moneyline system above, note that the odds on plays in this system should only fluctuate between +105 and -125 roughly while the favorites in the moneyline system can be favored much more heavily.
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Between the Royals and Astros, this is an ideal setting for both offenses. Houston’s does have the tough task vs. Cole Ragans, but it’s also a major step up in assignment for the young lefty. Between their .183 ISO and 16.1% strikeout rate, Ragans is in for a very tough assignment. And while the Royals don’t seem like the toughest task for Cristian Javier, they’re boasting a .189 ISO against right-handed pitching to open the season
SYSTEM PICK FOR APRIL 9
HOU-KCR over 8.5 runs -115
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
