In the first matchup of the Final Four, two SEC teams go head-to-head as the Florida Gators face the Auburn Tigers. This is a breakdown of the public betting splits and the most popular player prop bets for the Final Four matchup.
Florida is a 2.5-point favorite over Auburn at DraftKings Sportsbook, with a total of o/u 159.5.
Betting Splits
Auburn takes on the SEC Tournament champions, Florida, in the first national semifinal of March Madness. From start to finish, Auburn has been the best team in college basketball this season. That is why they earned a top seed in this tournament. However, Florida got red-hot in the SEC Tournament and won the whole thing, while Auburn lost to Tennessee in the semifinals. Also, when these two teams met in the regular season, Florida came out on top, winning 90-81 on the road at Auburn. The last key factor to consider is that Auburn’s star big man, Johni Broome, was injured in the Elite Eight game against Michigan State. Broome returned to that game but looked as if he couldn’t even use the arm he injured. He is expected to play against Florida, but it is unknown how close to 100% he is.
While this is a battle between No. 1 seeds, the public recognizes that Florida is the hotter team, won the regular-season matchup, and that Auburn’s best player could be less effective in this game. Therefore, Florida is getting 59% of the bets and handle on the Moneyline, plus 65% of the bets and 68% of the handle at -2.5. While not an overwhelming difference, the public is firmly on Florida to both win the game and cover the short spread. While the handle percentage is not much greater in terms of the spread, or greater at all when it comes to the moneyline, there is also no resistance from bigger bettors. Even those bigger bettors seem reluctant to back Auburn with the mystery around Broome.
When it comes to the total, the public and bigger bettors alike seem split. 52% of the bets and 52% of the handle are on the over 159.5. Normally, the public would be pouring money in on the over for a big game like this. Especially because the regular season matchup between these teams went way over this number. However, the fact that Broome is dealing with an injury and the sometimes-difficult shooting conditions at the Final Four have bettors less eager to bet on the over.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for this Final Four matchup:
- Johni Broome First Points Scorer (+475)
- Walter Clayton Jr. 3+ Three Pointers Made (-140)
- Walter Clayton Jr. First Points Scorer (+550)
- Walter Clayton Jr. 22+ Points Scored (+105)
- Johni Broome 20+ Points Scored (-115)
Under normal circumstances, it would be no surprise that Broome and Clayton Jr. are the two most bet-on players in the prop market. However, it is somewhat surprising that bettors are so ready to back Broome with the uncertainty around his arm. Broome did score 20+ points in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, so bettors are hoping that if he is anywhere near 100%, he will do so again in the Final Four. Bettors are also hoping that Auburn decides to dispel the injury worries right away and feed Broome for the first basket of the game.
For Florida, Walter Clayton Jr. is the main man. Clayton has been fantastic in this tournament, averaging over 22 points per game, including a 30-point masterclass in the Elite Eight. Clayton has made at least three three-pointers in three of four tournament games so far, so bettors are relying on him to do it one more time. They are also backing him to score 22 points, including the first points of the game. Just like Auburn will want to get the ball to Broome right away, Florida will want to get Clayton going as soon as possible.
