This women’s Final Four showdown between the Gamecocks and Longhorns see them meeting for the fourth time this season, with the national title game on the line. South Carolina has had Texas’ number for most of the year, with two wins in three meetings, including a dominant 64-45 blowout in the SEC Championship. These teams feature elite defenses and contrasting styles—Texas thrives in the paint, while South Carolina controls the tempo and the boards with superior depth. At the core of this battle is a classic clash of defensive titans, and South Carolina’s edge in Final Four experience could prove pivotal in a game destined to come down to every possession. I’ll detail it all in my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness Final Four women’s college basketball game between Texas and South Carolina.
Here’s how I’ll play the game. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout the tournaments..
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Texas vs. South Carolina preview, prediction
Let’s talk numbers: South Carolina’s defense has been nothing short of suffocating in the tournament, limiting opponents to just 54.5 PPG on 37.6% shooting from the field, ranking second in the nation in defensive efficiency. They’ve held opponents to just 28.5% from beyond the arc and 44 total free-throw attempts across four NCAA tournament games—truly locking down the game’s flow. On the flip side, Texas has been stingy in their own right, allowing just 53.8 PPG in the tournament, but they’ve struggled with fouls, ranking near the bottom of the country in opponent free-throw attempts. South Carolina has shot 45 free throws against the Longhorns this season, taking full advantage of Texas’ defensive lapses.
This contest won’t just be won in the paint, though Texas has the potential to make waves there—thanks to Kyla Oldacre and Madison Booker. Booker, the Longhorns’ primary weapon, has averaged 16.4 PPG and was instrumental in their February win over the Gamecocks. But South Carolina’s defense has stifled her, holding her to a 25.9% shooting percentage across their three meetings this season. They know how to shut down Booker’s offense and will likely turn to Bree Hall and Raven Johnson again to keep her from going off.
The Gamecocks are far from a one-trick pony. With players like Chloe Kitts, who’s been delivering in key moments with an average of 12.3 PPG and 8.0 RPG this tournament, and Sania Feagin contributing with versatility, South Carolina doesn’t need to rely on any single player. This depth is a huge advantage against a team like Texas, which, while talented, has been a little too dependent on Booker’s scoring and Oldacre’s presence inside. The Gamecocks’ offensive rating sits at 110.8, fifth in the nation, and they can shoot, pass, and crash the boards better than any other team. Texas’ offensive rating of 109.8 is solid, but they don’t have the same all-around depth and efficiency. South Carolina’s size and rotation keep opponents on their heels, and their ability to play physical, disciplined defense—without fouling—sets them apart.
South Carolina vs. Texas pick, best bet
In tournament play, South Carolina has obliterated the turnover battle with a +5.7 turnover margin, forcing opponents into mistakes while staying composed on offense. Texas, meanwhile, sits at +2.3 turnover margin, and that gap has been costly. On the boards, the Gamecocks have asserted their dominance with a +9.8 rebound margin, powered by their relentless frontcourt and a crew of bulldog-determined rebounders like Chloe Kitts and Sania Feagin. The Longhorns hold their own but fall short with a +5.4 rebound margin, which won’t cut it against South Carolina’s depth. Then, there’s free-throw shooting, where the Gamecocks are solid, converting 78.5% from the line, while Texas struggles at 73.1%. With those numbers stacked against them, it’s hard to see how Texas can keep pace with South Carolina’s superior all-around game.
Texas will have to match South Carolina’s intensity and effort, but they’ve already shown they can’t hold up for four quarters against the Gamecocks, especially in March. Given that South Carolina has beaten Texas in two out of their three meetings by 17 and 19 points, the Gamecocks have the advantage here. The Longhorns may have had a bit more rest, but they’ll struggle to control the paint, and Booker’s offensive inconsistencies under pressure could cost them dearly. South Carolina’s dominant defense, relentless rebounding, and superior depth will allow them to cover the spread in a grind-it-out Final Four matchup. Expect the Gamecocks to show why they’re the reigning champs and keep their title defense alive.
The u126.5 looks like a pretty juicy bet here, too, and the numbers back it up. Both teams are led by elite defenses which thrive in controlling the pace, making sure offenses can’t get into rhythm, especially with South Carolina’s ability to dictate tempo—see all the above stats. We also noted how both teams also rely heavily on interior scoring, as evidenced by South Carolina’s 40-18 advantage in points in the paint during their SEC Championship win. Lack of perimeter shooting on both sides. Smash the under.
Best bet: South Carolina -4.5 (-115)
Tail South Carolina to make it back to the Natty with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Pick: Under 126.5 (-115)
It makes too much sense with these two defenses, especially with it opening at 125.5. Tail here!
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