With the fifth and eighth seeds in the Western Conference separated by just a single game, every single minute is critical for the remainder of the season. That means that the LA Clippers, who sit in eighth, can’t overlook even tonight’s clash against the lowly New Orleans Pelicans, whose top seven scorers will all don street clothes.
At least LA has momentum going into the pivotal stretch. The Clippers have won eight of their last 10 games, and in addition to Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac’s improvements, Kawhi Leonard looks fully healthy and James Harden has continued to be the team’s driving force.
Given New Orleans’ injuries, it’s not surprising that LA is a 17.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total is set to 218. Below, I’ve outlined my favorite prop bets centered around The Beard.
Best James Harden Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
James Harden U8.5 Assists (-105)
In the playoffs, the Clippers are better off putting the ball in the massive hands of Leonard, one of just three players to win Finals MVP in each conference. LA’s head coach, Tyronn Lue, knows this, which is why over the last 10 games, Leonard has led the team in usage rate and Harden’s potential assists have decreased from 14.2 per game in the Clippers’ first 65 games of the season to just 11.1 in the last 10, with Leonard’s going up from 4.8 to 6.0. With such a decline in overall responsibility, it’s no surprise that Harden has dished out eight or fewer dimes in each of his past five games.
Since the All-Star break, the Pelicans have allowed the fifth-most assists per game in the league, so I’m not taking the under because I’m expecting Harden to struggle. He did record 17 assists against New Orleans on March 11, tied for his best playmaking performance of the season. But he had to play nearly 40 minutes in that game, and the Clippers ended up losing, 127-120. In that game, Trey Murphy II, CJ McCollum, and Zion Williamson all played for the Pelicans; now, all three are done for the season. In the likely event of a blowout, he won’t have time to rack up assists; of the 18 games in which he played fewer than 32 minutes, he only dished out nine or more assists five times.
James Harden O1.5 Steals (-120)
Unsurprisingly for a team undergoing as much turmoil as New Orleans has this season, the Pelicans haven’t taken particularly good care of the ball. For the season, they’ve given up the eighth-most steals per game, and in a smaller sample size — after the All-Star break — that figure has worsened to sixth. Tonight’s projected starting lineup of Jose Alvarado, Antonio Reeves, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, and Yves Missi has played a total of just 10 minutes together this season, and in that microscopic sample size, they’ve averaged 21.0 fewer steals and 17.0 more turnovers per 100 possessions than their opponents have.
With less of an offensive burden, Harden can be freed up to focus more on defense, where, by defensive win shares, he’s having his best season since 2014-15 and the second-best of his career. In fact, the seven steals that he recorded in Monday’s win over the Orlando Magic represented the second-highest single-game total of his career. Although the seven-steal masterpiece ended a four-game steal-less streak, he’d swiped the ball at least once in the five preceding games, including two steals in four of them. His ball-hawking tendencies haven’t been as affected by playing time, as he’s recorded two or more steals in eight of the games in which he played fewer than 32 minutes.
