This Final Four showdown between the 2024-2025 UConn Huskies and UCLA Bruins is set to be a high-octane clash of stars. Paige Bueckers has been nothing short of electric in this tournament—we tailed her and the Huskies while she dropped 31 in UConn’s Elite Eight win over USC and showing just how voraciously she wants to finish her career with a title. The Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season and rolling with a swagger that only comes from being the most dominant team in the tournament. But Lauren Betts & co. might have something to say about that. I’ll detail it all in my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness Final Four women’s college basketball game between USC and UConn.
Here’s how I’ll play the game. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout the tournaments..
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
UCLA vs. UConn preview, prediction
UConn’s offense is humming, ranking first in the nation in points per play, first in points per 100 possessions, and fifth in three-point percentage, and they’ve averaged 80.3 points over their last three games. Paige is the spark, but UConn has firepower all over the floor, with Sarah Strong (who’s averaging 17.0 points and 11.8 rebounds per game during the tournament) and Azzi Fudd (who is shooting 48.0% from three-point range in the tourney) adding extra layers to their already formidable attack.
UCLA, on the other hand, may not have UConn’s star-studded depth, but they’ve got Lauren Betts, and she’s a problem. The 6-foot-7 center has been a dominant force, averaging 20.0 points on 64.9% shooting and adding 3.0 blocks per game. Betts dropped 30 points against Ole Miss in a huge win, and she’s been at the heart of every UCLA victory this tournament. The Bruins have a legitimate shot to hang with UConn, but their success hinges on Betts staying out of foul trouble and dominating inside. The absence of Betts for long stretches in UCLA’s previous games has shown how vulnerable the Bruins can be without their most imposing player. While UCLA has a solid supporting cast—Kiki Rice has been facilitating their offense with 7.4 assists per game and Gabriela Jaquez’s all-around play has been clutch—there’s no question that this game will come down to whether or not Betts can go toe-to-toe with UConn’s versatile and high-powered lineup.
The question in this game is whether UCLA’s defense can limit UConn’s explosive offense. UConn ranks third in assists per game and third in fewest turnovers per game, while UCLA has shown vulnerability at times, including struggling in the second quarter of games (averaging only 18.6 points in that period). While UCLA is no slouch on defense—allowing just 57.9 points per game to rank 44th in the country—UConn’s balance and scoring depth may be too much for the Bruins to handle, especially if they get caught in a scoring battle with Bueckers, Strong, and Fudd.
In tournament play, UConn has been a dominant force in the turnover battle, averaging +6.8 turnover margin per game, while UCLA has struggled with -2.5 turnover margin. In terms of rebounding, UConn is holding a solid +7.0 rebound margin, with Sarah Strong contributing significantly. UCLA, while strong inside with Betts, has a smaller +4.2 rebound margin. Additionally, UConn has been shooting a blistering 80.3% from the free-throw line, which is one of the best marks in the tournament, while UCLA is shooting 71.6% from the charity stripe.
UConn vs. UCLA pick, best bet
What’s notable here is the Huskies’ ability to absorb punches. Even in their close games, like against USC, they showed resilience and depth, closing out games with devastating runs. In fact, UConn has been dominant in transition and in late-game scenarios, showcasing their ability to absorb any setback and push through. While UCLA is no slouch on defense—allowing just 57.9 points per game to rank 44th in the country—UConn’s balance and scoring depth may be too much for the Bruins to handle, especially if they get caught in a scoring battle with Bueckers, Strong, and Fudd.
UConn has the edge in turnover margin and free throw shooting—two areas where they’ve been consistently dominant—and they also have a stronger rebounding margin to boot. Their ability to impose their will in transition and late-game situations is unmatched. Paige Bueckers and company will come out firing, and UCLA will struggle to contain the Huskies’ barrage, especially as Betts can’t carry the Bruins on her own. While UCLA has depth and skill, UConn’s overall talent and championship pedigree put them in a position to cover the -8.5 spread and secure a Final Four berth.
And, ahem, let’s be real—Paige Bueckers isn’t just playing for an NCAA title; she’s playing to leave a legacy that will be etched into UConn’s storied halls. With every game, her postseason intensity reaches new heights, her force of purpose new inexplicable gears—and if UCLA thinks they can slow down the best player in the tournament, they’re about to get theirs.
The total of 135.5 feels a touch low here considering both teams’ scoring ability. UConn is averaging 81.6 points per game, and UCLA is at 78.7. With Betts likely to cause some disruption inside and Bueckers lighting it up from all over the floor, expect a high-scoring affair. Both teams have shown that they can put up points at will in this tournament, and the combination of UConn’s offensive potency and UCLA’s potential to hit timely shots should push this one over.
Best bet: UConn -8.5 (-105)
Tail Paige Bueckers to assert destiny on UCLA with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Total lean: Over 135.5 (-110)
Why the heck not? Tail here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
