First Wednesday baseball of the year! You know what that means: early first-pitches, a smattering of afternoon games for all our day/night split zealots, and a bit more limited evening primetime action on the diamond. Having said that, I’m still tickled by a few of the games/markets for tonight’s limited slate of MLB games. I break down my three favorite MLB predictions, picks, and prop bets below.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Boston Red Sox ML (-120) at Baltimore Orioles
What was that great Baseball Savant article earlier in the offseason about the structural renovations at Camden Yards—WALL-TIMORE NO MORE!? Something like that. It just so happens that those structural renovations benefit just about the only Red Sox hitter doing anything outstanding, Wilyer Abreu. He’ll strut into the batter’s box with a 2.114 OPS (!)—across just 16 plate appearances, mind you—ready to barrel Orioles starting pitcher Zach Eflin with authority tonight.
Not to mention, it’s a cozy Crochet night for the Red Sox rotation. The Orioles are showing a bit of fun elasticity at the outset of the 2025 season despite their well-documented injury issues. Cedric Mullins looks like he’s trying to at least positively regress to an older version of the excellent bat-to-ball hitter he was back in 2020-2022. Jordan Westburg looks all-too-eager for his season-long breakout at the plate, and Tyler O’Neill will just never stop slugging.
This ML play, however, is about a bounce-back spot for a lineup that’s shown flashes of a yet-untouched ceiling, protected tonight behind their assassin ace on the mound. -120 is no juice for which you should, like, shift in your seat. But it feels like it’s just a matter of time until Devers, Duran, & co. start turning the lineup over with some force. Of anyone in their rotation, Crochet can create that space for them against Baltimore tonight.
Here are the team’s total stats over the last five games:
What this chart tells me is that if Crochet can keep the Orioles hitters whiffing, and do a little regression work on that .305 team batting average, chances are the Sox are going to have a SLG% higher than .302 against Eflin tonight.
Let’s get Crochet a W.
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks o7.5 total runs (-118)
Am I already infuriatingly sick of all the ways these torpedo bats have shouldered their way to the front of the narrative queue at the utter outset of a baseball season during which we should be celebrating its players, the fruition of a good many farm systems for a good many blue-blood franchises, and the globalization of the game? You bet I am. Usually, baseball tends to be such a reticent and humble sport amidst all the NBA/NCAA/NHL playoff madness in the first months of the MLB season that the trolls are too busy to focus on anything besides, like, Nikola Jokic talking about missing his pet horses and dropping 100 points with his back turned to the basket.
Not this year, though! And, really, am I any better, here? This may as well be called a torpedo bat best bet. I’m not above it, I guess. The idea of going near an under at Yankees stadium—even with Carlos Rodon on the mound for the ‘stripes and Gallen taking the bump for the Snakes—seems legitimately laughable right now.
So we go the other way. I am ashamed to be feeding the narrative. Tossing more hot tar on the runway. I could use other buzzwords. Short porch in right field there in New York, huh? Corbin Carroll’s sure due from that left side!
But I don’t feel like putting lipstick on a pig for you all, today. If we’re not betting on the torpedo bats to bloat totals to double digits, what are we doing?
Brandon Marsh 1+ hit (-120) [COL @ PHI]
Hear me out: 27-year-old Marsh is about to have himself a better season-long OPS than his 2024 .747, respectable though that may have been. And we like the trend of his game log right now. He had a three-hit performance followed by a one-hit performance to end the Phillies’ series in Washington, and went 0-2 with zero strikeouts last night at home against the Rockies.
He’s seeing the ball as well as anyone, right now, and is representative of just about as much youth in the Phillies’ lineup that exists. Perhaps that’s why he’s hitting .308 with a .938 OPS through the first week of the season with a regular bat. Important to remember—the torpedo bats reward players with unimpressive barrel rates.
I’ll attack this near-even-money hit prop tonight for a guy who’s got four already on the year, and is 0-for-2 with a .500 OBP (two walks) against Colorado’s starter tonight, Kyle Freeland. Lefty-lefty risk, sure, but he just needs to squeak one through.
