One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Road underdog on the Run Line following a win
This system has been going strong since the start of 2024, but a recent surge has elevated it even more. Over the last seven days, this play is 18-5. That has improved this system’s hit rate from 59.25% (128-88) on the season to 61.09% (146-93).
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Only one game fits this system on Tuesday:
- WSH @ ATL
The Nationals have covered as Run Line underdogs in over 60% of their games this season (29-19). Most of those covers have come when playing on the road, where they are 17-9 on the Run Line when playing as a dog.
Jake Irvin is on the bump for Washington, and he’s thrown well this month despite being 0-3 over his four May starts. On the season, he’s got a 3.59 FIP and 3.79 ERA. That’s led to the Nationals losing by one run or winning in half of the 10 starts he’s made to open 2024.
Max Fried is also moving in the right direction after he stumbled out the gates. Still, the Braves have lost two of his four starts this month. On the whole, they’ve either won by a single run or lost in half of his 10 starts.
SYSTEM PICK for May 28
WSH +1.5 (+105)
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SYSTEM: NRFI when home favorite is coming off a win
Similar to the Run Line system mentioned above, this has been a strong play throughout the season and experienced a recent surge. Over the last seven days, this system is 16-8, which has bumped the play’s success rate from 57.36% (148-110) to 58.16% (164-118).
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Seven games fit this system on Tuesday:
- BAL vs. BOS
- CIN vs. STL
- DET vs. PIT
- TB vs. OAK
- MIL vs. CHC
- SD vs. MIA
- SEA vs. HOU
NRFI has hit in Chicago’s last nine games, and they are 17-11 to the play when on the road this season. The Cubs also haven’t scored a run in the opening frame in 42 of 54 games this season. They did get to Freddy Peralta last time these two teams met, but they didn’t scratch across a run until the fifth inning.
While the play isn’t as hot for Milwaukee as it has been for the Cubs, NRFI has hit in the Brewers’ last four games. This current stretch means the Brewers have now failed to score in the 37 of the 53 first innings they’ve played this season. Ben Brown might not give the Brewers a hard time throughout the entirety of his outing, but he has held opponents scoreless in the first inning of four of his five starts.
SYSTEM PICK for May 28
CHC-MIL NRFI -125
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
