The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $700K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
There are 144 players in the field in what is officially the last tournament on the PGA TOUR schedule before Augusta. With the match play off the schedule this season, more top players have chosen to tee it up at the Valero again this season, which is great for this tournament’s long-term profile. At the top of the board this week is Ludvig Aberg (+1200 DK Sportsbook), followed by Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) and two-time Valero Champion Corey Conners (+1800). In terms of other names to watch, both Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth are in the field alongside last year’s Valero winner Akshay Bhatia.
The rest of the field will be searching for FedEx Cup points or a breakthrough win that could book them a ticket to the first major of 2023. Some players in the field this week who need a win just to make it to Augusta include Rickie Fowler, Daniel Berger and Kurt Kitayama. The cut will take place after Friday, as per usual, with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend.
The Course
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Par 72, 7,435 yards
TPC San Antonio is a long par 72 that plays over 7,400 yards but is often ranked as one of the tougher par 72s on TOUR. The conditions often play a part as they can be extremely volatile, thanks to the Texas wind and the open nature of the course. When the wind has stayed down, we’ve seen record scoring, with Corey Conners hitting 20-under par here in 2019 and both Denny McCarthy and eventual champion Akshay Bhatia also reaching 20-under. Despite the great performances last year, it should be noted that the course still played tough for the field as third place only reached 11-under par.
In 2022, birdies were also much tougher to come by as J.J. Spaun ended up winning by multiple strokes at just 13-under par. Spaun gained multiple strokes on approach and off the tee but relied more on his around-the-green game than several recent winners. Conners in 2022 reached 15-under par but relied heavily on ball-striking.
TPC San Antonio was designed by Greg Norman and has been the host of this event since 2010. The course sets up longer than average (for the PGA TOUR) at 7,435 yards and features a mix of tree-lined fairways and some open, almost links-style driving areas where the Texas brush comes into play. There are four par 5s, but three of them come in right around 600 yards, and none guarantee a great shot at birdie. Fairways are narrow, and driving accuracy stats are always well below the TOUR average, making accuracy almost as important as length off the tee. However, going a bit offline generally won’t crush a golfer since the course plays wide open in many spots, too, and has almost no water on it.
It should be noted that two of the past six winners ranked 66th (Andrew Landry in 2018) and 78th (Spieth in 2021) in driving accuracy for the week of their win. 2025 runner-up Denny McCarthy also gained less than 1.0 strokes OTT last year.
The overseeded greens here are known to be tough, too — players have to navigate lots of sharp falloffs and contours — and that also makes them a good warm-up for Augusta. Greens in Regulation percentages tend to trend around 5 to 10% lower than the average TOUR stop. This plays into the hands of the best ball-strikers in the game — Conners led the field in GIR stats here in 2019 and 2023, and Spieth gained +7.4 strokes on Approach for the week in 2021.
Scrambling tends to be more of a neutral stat as top finishers gain the most through ball-striking and timely putting. Getting hot from the 5-15 foot range with the putter at Valero has been a hallmark of past winners.
The course features four par 3s — two of which all come in well over 200 yards in length — and an additional five par 4s that will measure over 440 yards each, so good iron play throughout the bag is essential. Targeting the players on the uptick in long iron play and putting is where your focus should be in the stat department.
2025 Weather Outlook: The weather this week won’t be too difficult but it will feature some of the good-natured Texas volatility we all know and love. The event starts out hot with highs in the high 80F range for Thursday and Friday. Wind is expected to pick up on Thursday afternoon and into Friday where gusts could get up to the 15-20 MPH range. Saturday and Sunday see the temperature cool down significantly with wind gusts potentially as high as 20-25 MPH in spots. The wind can really play a factor at this venue so if it does pick up, expect much higher scoring this season and for players to be tested on approach and around the greens consistently.
Last 5 winners
2024–Akshay Bhatia -20 (over Denny McCarthy -20)
2023—Corey Conners -15 (over Sam Stevens -14)
2022—J.J. Spaun -13 (over Matt Jones and Matt Kuchar -11)
2021—Jordan Spieth -18 (over Charley Hoffman -16)
2019—Corey Conners -20 (over Charley Hoffman -18)
Winning Trends
– Of the past 13 Valero Texas Open winners, only seven had recorded a top-10 or better in a PGA TOUR event in the same year before their win.
– Each of the past 10 winners had played this event at least once prior and made the cut at TPC San Antonio in at least one of those past visits.
– Six of the past 13 winners of the Valero Texas Open were first-time winners on TOUR, and four of the past seven winners were first-timers.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2024 Winner: Akshay Bhatia (20-under par)
2024 lead-in form (T11-T17-MC-MC-MC)
SG: OTT—+4.3
SG: APP—+8.2
SG: TTG—+18.8
SG: ATG—+6.3
SG: PUTT—+2.4
- Prior to J.J. Spaun, the past four winners had gained big tee to green for the week: +12.9, +13.3, +12.5 and +14.4 strokes. Corey Conners continued that trend gaining 14.6 in 2023 and Akshay Bhatia destroyed this venue last season gaining an incredible 18.8 strokes TTG.
- This course is mostly about gaining on approach with longer-to-mid irons and being as consistent as possible off the tee and around the greens. Spaun gained 5.4 strokes ball-striking in his win, but the four winners prior to him gained well in excess of 7.0 strokes in that combined stat (APP + OTT), with most of the strokes being gained on approach. Bhatia gained 12.5 strokes ball-striking alone.
- Conners only ranked 51st in driving distance last season but was third in driving accuracy. Spaun also had a solid week off the tee (accuracy-wise) in 2022 the year he won.
- Since 2011, when the course moved to TPC San Antonio, the worst a winner has finished for the week in terms of Strokes Gained: Tee to Green is 11th — that was a quite unlikely winner in Ben Curtis in 2012.
- In terms of lead-up form, Conners came in with zero recent form in 2019, although he had been striking the ball well in his recent starts. Spaun was much of the same as he was gaining strokes with his irons but hadn’t produced any high finishes.
- Both Jordan Spieth (2021) and Kevin Chappell (2017) had posted recent top-10 finishes.
- One last note: While this course tends to play a bit long, driving distance has become less of a factor in recent years, with both Andrew Landry and Conners ranking outside the top 50 in Driving Distance in the years of their win on TOUR.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them. This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Tom Kim +4000 and $8,400
Comparables:
Gary Woodland +5000 and $7,800
Comparables:
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Charley Hoffman ($7,400; best finishes: win-2016, second 2011, 2019, 2021): Hoffman has a sterling record at the Valero Texas Open. Since the event moved to TPC San Antonio, he has had nine finishes of 13th or better, including three runner-ups and a win in 2016. It was only a couple of months ago that Hoffman finished T-5 at the Amex so perhaps another pop is looming.
2. Corey Conners ($10,100; best finishes: win-2019, 2023, T12-2021): Conners won this event as a qualifier in 2019 and did so again in 2023. He now ranks first in this field in strokes gained total at the event since 2017 by a wide margin. He’s gained over +6.0 strokes ball-striking at this venue in four of the past five seasons.
3. Matt Kuchar ($7,300; best finishes: T2-2022, T7-2019): Despite this being a longer course, Kuchar has found plenty of success at TPC San Antonio. He’s made the cut six of the past seven years now and posted T-12 or better finishes at this event in four of the past five seasons. His form has dipped since the summer but a decent week here wouldn’t be shocking.
4. Jordan Spieth ($9,700; best finishes: win-2021, T2-2015): Spieth doesn’t always play the Valero but he’s done well at this venue nonetheless. He posted his signature comeback win at TPC San Antonio in 2021 and also finished runner-up to Jimmy Walker here in 2015. He’s been very up-and-down in 2025, but a high finish wouldn’t be overly shocking this week.
5. Chris Kirk ($7,400; best finishes: T8-2018, T6-2021): Kirk has a very consistent record at this event– a good sign given how volatile this course can be. He’s also coming off a decent week at the PLAYERS where he made the cut and gained strokes on approach.
Recent Form
1. Corey Conners ($10,100; T8-T6): Conners is playing some really high-end golf at the moment. He’s posted three top-eight finishes in a row coming into this week and gaining strokes across the board for the most part.
2. Tommy Fleetwood ($10,700; T16-T149): Fleetwood continues to play consistent golf. He’s gaining off the tee every week but has yet to put together a big week with his irons and putter. His first win doesn’t seem far off at all.
3. Daniel Berger ($9,200; T20-T15): Berger had a decent Florida swing with a T-20 at the PLAYERS and a T-15 at Bay Hill. He’s regressed a bit since the big week he put in at WM Phoenix but perhaps this is the week he bounces back into full gear.
4. Keegan Bradley ($9,500; T20-T5): Bradley had a nice Florida swing, which included a huge week at Bay Hill (T-5). He’s likely to see this week as a good prep event for Augusta and has a little less appeal for that reason (just given his veteran status).
5. Sami Valimaki ($7,100; T4-T36): Valimaki had a fantastic finish last week in Houston, shooting 62 on Sunday to move into T-4. He sets up well for TPC San Antonio given the amount of greens and fairways he hits and certainly is a player to keep an eye on down the road.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Look for Aberg to shine
Ludvig Aberg ($10,800) didn’t have the greatest Florida swing, but the Swede already grabbed an early-season win at the Genesis and quite frankly should have his eyes set on Augusta. A good week of prep is needed and given how good his short game and irons can be, I expect him to make a lot of noise this week as he looks to build momentum going into the first major. Below Aberg, I also like the prices on Daniel Berger ($9,200) and Bud Cauley ($8,300), two Americans with something to prove who have played well all season. For value, Victor Perez ($7,100) and Jesper Svensson ($7,200) also make a lot of sense in this format.
Tournaments: Tom Kim could erupt
Tom Kim ($8,400) hasn’t had the start to 2025 that he would have liked but he’s not necessarily playing that poorly. The Korean has been gaining big on his approaches every week and seemed to find an uptick in his around-the-green game in his last outing in Florida. He’s coming in off a week of rest and should be plenty motivated to put a poor start to the season behind him with a big week. Tom Hoge ($7,400) is another player who could go well here as he has the sort of upside with his irons needed to succeed around this demanding course. He’s coming off a confidence-building T-3 at Sawgrass. Other names that have big field GPP appeal this week include Chris Gotterup (see below), Eric Cole ($7,200), Trey Mullinax ($6,900) and Antoine Rozner ($6,700).
MY PICK: Bud Cauley ($8,300)
It’s hard not to like Cauley this week. On top of coming off of back-to-back top-10 finishes, the American is showcasing the sort of form you want to see before taking on a tougher test like TPC San Antonio. He’s always had an exquisite short game (11th SG: ATG short-term form) but his ball-striking has really come to life of late as well. He gained 8.1 strokes on approach at Valspar and is up to 26th in SG: APP stats over the last 24 rounds.
Cauley’s also had some success in Texas over his career that he should be able to build upon this week. The 35-year-old has multiple top-10 finishes in the state, including a T-10 at TPC San Antonio from back in 2017, a year where he gained 9.3 strokes ball-striking around this venue. Still looking for his first career win (and a ticket to Augusta) Cauley’s also playing an event this week that has been kind to both players with good course experience and players still searching for that elusive first PGA victory (see winner’s trends above).
While his price has come up a bit, he’s still very affordable in the low-8k range for DFS purposes, and potentially still a little undervalued given how sharply his short-term form has risen. At +5000 in the outright market, he’s also in the exact sort of range for betting that we’ve seen hit of late and would make for a great story, given the injuries and career setbacks he’s had to go through just to make it back as a PGA TOUR regular.
MY SLEEPER: Chris Gotterup ($6,800)
Gotterup hasn’t done a lot this season but the 25-year-old is a talented young player who is coming off a solid week in Houston where he finished T-18 and gained strokes in all the major categories. A former Haskins Award winner for the top collegiate player, Gotterup already has a win on the PGA, achieved last season at the alternate event in Myrtle Beach, but comes in still looking to book a trip to Augusta.
He’s shown well in Texas for the most part and has the sort of upside with his ball-striking and around-the-green game to tackle a tougher course like TPC San Antonio. While it’s been a while since he’s put it all together, the 13.2 strokes he gained TTG at the John Deere in 2022 is a good representation of what he can do when his game is clicking.
He’s definitely a boom-or-bust type of play, but for big field DFS GPPs, it’s hard not to like taking a shot with the American this week given the solid showing he’s coming off of in Houston and his cheap price. For betting, the top 10 (+1400) and top 20 (+550) prices look more than fair for a player of his caliber who may also benefit from a volatile kind of event where the weather and next week’s major looming may factor into how many top players will approach this event.
