Monday is a great slate of baseball and I have a bunch of MLB Prop Bets I’m liking. All of these bets can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook. If you want to directed right to the bet page, click on the heading that lists the bet.
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MLB Prop Bets for March 31, 2025
Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases +120
The Mets are expected to put up some offensive numbers tonight, as their 4.5 team total sits at -130. They’ll be facing Cal Quantrill, who was nothing short of a disaster last season with the Rockies. Pitching at Coors Field wasn’t the biggest problem, as he posted a 5.04 ERA with a .346 wOBA through 75 innings on the road. Last year, he threw a split-finger and a sinker as his main pitches, doing so a combined 57% of the time. Alonso handled these pitches well last year, posting a .505 wOBA and a .343 wOBA against them, respectively. This could be a great matchup to kickstart Alonso, who is currently just 1-for-12 on the season through three games. If anything, Quantrill induces a lot of contact, as his strikeout numbers were well below average with a 6.6 K/9 last season.
DraftKings Network provides FREE betting splits. Check out how the public is betting on the game, total, and run line!
San Diego Padres Team Total over 4.5 runs
Luis Ortiz will make his debut for the Guardians after a rough spring training. While I don’t weigh spring numbers heavily, a 10.13 ERA with a 6.63 FIP and a 6.7 BB/9 through 18.2 innings does grab my attention. I think it’s worth discussing because Ortiz’s numbers last year were a bit deceiving. Despite a 3.32 ERA, his xERA was 4.31—almost a run higher. That tells me he got awfully lucky last year and was bailed out defensively. That luck won’t last forever, and maybe we’ve already seen signs of it fading.
The Padres are a strong-hitting club against what Ortiz throws. Last year, he relied on a combination of a slider, four-seamer, and sinker. Tonight’s expected lineup had a combined .353 wOBA against the slider and four-seamer and a .336 wOBA against the sinker. Ortiz also gave up a lot of extra bases to left-handed bats, including 12 of the 16 home runs he allowed. The Padres should have four—and possibly five—lefties going tonight. I think they’ll put up a lot of offense early and often against Ortiz and the Guardians.
I also like the over 8 runs in this game if you want to get on that as well.
Want to see who is pitching today? Check out our Probable Pitchers article to see today’s matchups.
Chicago Cubs over 4.5 runs -105
The Cubs have come out of the gate swinging, scoring 21 runs in their last series against the Diamondbacks. Tonight, they’ll begin a series against the Athletics and face starter Joey Estes. Estes is a contact pitcher who doesn’t have overpowering stuff and was torched during spring training. Last season, he struggled against both sides of the plate and allowed a total of 23 home runs, almost evenly distributed between righties and lefties. Estes primarily throws a four-seam fastball, doing so 51% of the time last year. This Cubs team can rake against that pitch, with a combined .349 wOBA, a .187 ISO, and just a 16.4% K% against it. I think the Cubs will jump on Estes early and won’t get much relief from the bullpen, which is very underwhelming.
Three Leg Parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook
If you like all these picks (I at least do) they have been parlayed together on DraftKings Sportsbook. Log onto DraftKings Sportsbook, go to the MLB tab and scroll through the available content cards. You’ll see my face (sorry, I’m married) on the card, just like below. Good luck!
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