While the NCAA Tournament is winding down, it is not time to say goodbye to college basketball just yet. New this season, the Crown Tournament is set to take place in Las Vegas between 16 teams that did not participate in the NCAA Tournament. The Tournament will kick off on March 31st and conclude on April 6th. This is a single-elimination style of tournament with $500,000 in NIL money on the line.
In the second game of the Crown Tournament, George Washington University will be taking on Boise State. The winner will play the victor of Butler and Utah.
Boise State enters the game as 8.5-point favorites and -380 on the Moneyline. George Washington holds +300 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 141.5.
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George Washington Analysis
George Washington had a successful season in the Atlantic 10 conference going 21-12 on the year and 9-9 in conference play. It was defeated 80-65 by George Mason in the Conference Tournament quarterfinals to close the door on an NCAA Tournament opportunity. VCU ultimately went on to win it all and represent the Atlantic 10 but fell to BYU 80-71 in the opening round.
The Revolutionaries play a defensive-minded brand of basketball limiting opponents to 67.8 points per game which is the 57th-best rate in the country. They also rank 76th in opponents’ field goal percentage and 64th in opponents’ three-point percentage. Offensively, it has been more of a challenge as George Washington averages 73.6 points per game which ranks 185th. It shoots just 31.7% from beyond the three-point arc as a team, which ranks 304th, and ranks 190th in rebounding.
Rafael Castro headlines the scoring effort averaging 14.1 points and a conference-leading 9.1 rebounds per game. Gerald Drumgoole Jr, Darren Buchanen Jr, and Trey Autry each also pitch in over 10 points per game with head coach Chris Caputo keeping his rotation fairly small.
Boise State Analysis
Boise State went 24-10 this season and 14-6 in Mountain West Conference play. It was defeated by Colorado State in the conference tournament final to miss out on the NCAA Tournament bid. Colorado State went on to beat Memphis in the First Four before losing to Maryland 72-71 in a respectable effort. Boise State had a chance to qualify for an outright bid but ended up being one of the first four teams left out of the big dance.
The Broncos will seek some revenge in the Crown Tournament as they look to extend their season. Boise State had the 86th most difficult strength of schedule this year and also leaned on their defense for success. They limited opponents to 66.1 points per game this season which ranks 33rd among Division 1 teams. Boise State has limited opponents to the second-fewest rebounds against them and forces turnovers at a high rate. Offensively, they average 74.9 points per game which ranks 143rd. The Broncos also shoot just 31.0% from beyond the three-point line collectively which ranks 324th in the country. No player on the roster shoots better than 34.0% on three-pointers individually.
Tyson Degenhart leads the team with 17.9 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Andrew Meadow adds 12.5 points and 4.3 rebounds per contest while Alvaro Cardenas is primarily responsible for running the offense adding 11.7 points, 7.0 assists, and 3.2 rebounds. Javan Buchanan also provides a scoring punch off the bench and is a name worth noting.
The Pick: Under 141.5
Both these teams lean on their defense for success and expect this to be evident in this matchup. While my lean is toward George Washington covering the +8.5 spread, the game staying under 141.5 points is my favorite bet.
The under has cashed in 18 of the 33 games for both Boise State and George Washington this season. These teams are more than comfortable playing at a slow pace with George Washington ranking 212th in possessions per game, while Boise State is 321st in this category. Neither team is overly loaded with offensive creators and the rebounding battle may be the biggest indicator of the winner in this game.
The total has been held under 141.5 in 15 of its final 25 games for Boise State. For George Washington, games have finished under this number in eight of the final 12 games of the season. These teams have had plenty of time to rest their legs and expect a full defensive effort in this matchup.
These teams rank 304th and 324th in three-point percentage and will need to earn every point on the interior. Expect this to be a bit of a rock fight with the first team able to crack 65 points likely to have a clear pathway to winning. Buckle up for some defense and count on this game remaining under 141.5.
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