Sears sure pulled out the full catalog against BYU, didn’t he? He’ll have an even more formidable test ahead of him in the Elite Eight in this much-ballyhooed Duke vs. Alabama game. Let’s evaluate his betting markets and see which prop presents the most value, and aligns with our game prediction.
Here’s how I’ll play Sears’s lines tonight. I’ll also still be writing up predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Best Mark Sears prop bet for Duke vs. Alabama
Mark Sears 3+ three-pointers (-125)
In a game where Alabama’s offense will need to stretch Duke’s defense, Sears is primed to capitalize on Duke’s defensive weaknesses, particularly their struggles against high-volume, sharpshooting guards. Sears has been on a tear throughout the tournament, and his performance in the Sweet Sixteen exemplifies his ability to light it up from beyond the arc. Against BYU, he finished with 34 points, including 10-of-16 from three-point range. This shooting performance highlights the type of night Sears can have when he’s locked in, and Duke’s defense will have to account for him all over the floor.
Duke’s defense, while formidable in many respects, has shown vulnerability when facing perimeter-heavy teams. They rank No. 65 nationally in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 32.5% from beyond the arc. This was evident in Duke’s Sweet Sixteen win over Arizona, where they allowed Caleb Love to score 35 points, with a significant portion of those points coming from deep. If Sears is able to find similar open looks, particularly when Duke collapses on Alabama’s interior players, he could easily clear his prop line of 3+ three-pointers made.
Sears’ ability to generate looks from three also hinges on his stellar ball movement. With Alabama’s offense ranking 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency and Sears playing alongside the versatile Brandon Miller, he’s often able to take advantage of open shots created from movement and screens. With 5+ three-pointers made in multiple games this season, including his stellar tournament run, Sears is more than capable of hitting three deep shots in this game.
Just for the record: Mark Sears knocked down 3+ threes in games against Missouri (5), Kentucky (5), Mississippi State (3), Auburn (3), and Tennessee (3). Let’s add Duke to the list.
Best bet: Mark Sears 3+ three-pointers (-125)
Tail Sears to bury Duke from beyond the arc with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
