After their rivals a two hour drive up I-5 (depending on traffic, of course) won a World Series title in 2024, the onus is on the San Diego Padres. They may not have the unlimited resources or the ring-studded history that the Los Angeles Dodgers do, but the Padres are Los Angeles’ closest rival atop the NL West.
The Dodgers didn’t exactly make it easy for San Diego by snapping up Blake Snell, who won the Cy Young Award with the Padres in 2023 before pitching for the division rival San Francisco Giants in 2024. But the memory of Snell is in the past; his replacement, Dylan Cease, finished fourth in voting for the award last season, recording a 14-11 record with a 3.47 ERA and 224 strikeouts.
Cease is set to make his first start of the season tonight as San Diego hosts the Atlanta Braves for a 9:40 p.m. ET clash. The Padres won the first game of the series yesterday, 7-4.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, San Diego is a 1.5-run favorite and the total is set for 7. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Cease.
Best Dylan Cease Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Dylan Cease U15.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
It’s every pitcher’s first outing of a six-month season, so managers are wont to be cautious. The Padres will hope to have Cease pitching through the end of October, so there’s no reason for him to throw more than absolutely necessary in late March. Yesterday, San Diego manager Mike Shildt pulled Michael King after just 2.2 innings of work — although, to be fair, he gave up three runs, four hits, and four walks, so it’s not exactly like he was lighting up the Braves. In fact, of the 28 starters who took the mound yesterday, only 11 pitched more than five innings. Cease has recorded 16 or more outs only once in his opening start of the season.
Dylan Cease U1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
Last season, Atlanta was one of the more long ball-reliant units in baseball, ranking just 15th in total runs scored despite hitting more bombs than all but three teams, and it also struck out more than all but six teams. The Braves produced an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour or faster on 42.7% of their balls in play, the highest rate in the league, and designated hitter Marcell Ozuna ranked fifth in the league with 39 home runs. He also finished ninth in hard-hit percentage, with first baseman Matt Olson not too far behind him in 32nd. Atlanta’s boom-or-bust strategy kind of worked; the team finished 89-73, good enough for a Wild Card spot and a first-round exit to — ironically enough — the Padres.
Unfortunately for the Braves, Cease isn’t a pitcher prone to giving up booms. Among 59 qualified pitchers, he ranked 27th in hard-hit percentage and 12th in home run percentage in 2024 and also ranked fifth in strikeout percentage. To be fair, neither of San Diego’s pitchers who conceded home runs yesterday — King, who allowed a two-run shot to Ozzie Albies, and Alek Jacob, who conceded a solo homer to Austin Riley — are particularly homer-prone either. But Cease lines up even better than King does against Atlanta’s lineup: both Ozuna and Riley are right-handed, and Cease gave up just 36 runs and a .552 OPS to right-handed batters in 2024. Plus, while Jurickson Profar and Albies are switch-hitters who will line up in the left side of the box against him, that was their weaker side last season.
