Texas Tech has been the sleeping-but-unsexy giant this whole tournament; we’re on record saying they might be Final-Four good. Here they are, facing off in the Elite Eight—but this time it’s against our beloved Florida Gators, who we have winning it all. It’s how many brackets had this West region playing out, if you believed the Pitino/St. John’s magic could only go so far. It did, and so, too, did Coach Cal’s. Let’s now get into my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness Elite Eight college basketball game between Florida and Texas Tech.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Florida vs. Texas Tech preview, prediction
Florida enters this Elite Eight matchup with the momentum of a strong Sweet Sixteen performance against Maryland. They covered the 6.5-point spread there, too, for the record. Walter Clayton Jr. continued to shine, putting up 22 points and six assists, solidifying his status as a premier playmaker in the tournament. In the win, Florida’s offensive rebounding advantage (ranked fourteenth nationally in offensive rebound percentage at 36.9%) was evident, grabbing crucial boards and converting them into second-chance points. Florida controlled the glass in the Sweet Sixteen, with a 12-rebound advantage, a statistic that will be crucial in this matchup against Texas Tech. Florida’s +7.2 rebound margin in March Madness further highlights their dominance on the boards.
Alex Condon’s status for this game is uncertain; he suffered an undisclosed injury on the same ankle that had bothered him prior to his return in late-Februrary. But Handlochten, Chinyelu, Haugh, and Martin are all vicious rebounders and can easily, in aggregate, make up for Condon’s presence on the glass. We saw it last night.
Defensively, Florida’s top-ten efficiency rating (eighth in the nation) was on full display against Maryland. Their ability to disrupt the perimeter and force turnovers continued to shine, as they rank first in the nation in defensive turnover rate, forcing mistakes on 21.7% of possessions. In the Sweet Sixteen, Florida held Maryland to just 43.2% shooting from the field and forced 13 turnovers, illustrating their defensive prowess. Florida’s defense has forced 19 turnovers per game in the tournament thus far. With a transition defense ranked fourth in the country, Florida stifled any fast-break opportunities, keeping Maryland’s offense in check. Florida limited Maryland to just eight fast-break points in that game, further proving their defensive discipline.
Texas Tech, on the other hand, survived an overtime thriller against Arkansas, where they were once again buoyed by the steady hand of Elijah Hawkins, who tallied ten assists, and JT Toppin, who contributed 18 points and nine rebounds. However, Texas Tech’s offensive struggles were evident, as they shot only 41.2% from the field in that game. Despite the win, Texas Tech’s offense stagnated in the second half, scoring just 34 points in the final 20 minutes. Additionally, they shot 28.6% from three-point range in the second half, showcasing their struggles when forced to generate offense without easy baskets.
Texas Tech vs. Florida pick, best bet
Look, I know we’ve been on Florida to cover their spreads all tournament, but here’s why it’s justified: Florida has a clear advantage in size and depth, and their defense is tailor-made to shut down Texas Tech’s offensive flow. Florida ranks second nationally in two-point field goal defense (44.5%) and has held opponents to just 39.7% shooting in the tournament so far. In the Sweet Sixteen, Florida stymied Maryland’s offense by limiting easy shots and creating turnovers; that will carry over into this matchup. It’s also likely Florida turns over the ball a heck of a lot less in the first half next game than they did against Maryland.
Texas Tech, while gritty, has been exposed when facing teams with the depth and defensive discipline of Florida. Florida’s superior rebounding, transition defense, and ability to control tempo will wear down Texas Tech.
Gators should comfortably cover the -6.5, even against a talented, well-coached Red Raiders team.
Best bet: Florida -6.5 (-105)
Tail the Gators to cover back to back spreads in 2025 March Madness with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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