2025 Florida Derby Preview & Picks
Between 1953 and 2023, a span of 71 years, the Florida Derby produced the Kentucky Derby winner on 25 occasions, a record of success unequaled by any other prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby is the final of the three race prep schedule at Gulfstream Park to see who might qualify for the 2025 Derby. The signature race offers 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five eligible finishers. Five of the entered horses have only added a maiden victory to their records. Sovereignty is the only winner on the Derby trail, with victories in Graded Races (Street Sense back in October 2024 at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on March 1) and his speed numbers continue to improve.
Here are my selections:
Win & Place – Sovereignty
Exacta Key – Sovereignty with Disruptor, Tappan Street, Enterdadragon & Jimmy’s Dailys
2025 Arkansas Derby Preview & Picks
Saturday’s Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby is the final of four races on the Oaklawn Track Road to the Kentucky Derby 2025. The signature race at the Arkansas track offers 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five eligible finishers.
Coal Battle is a three-time winner on the Derby trail, with victories in the Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones and Rebel and with 70 points has a spot in the big race locked up already. He’s shown versatility and determination on his Derby trail, which should serve him well again. Speed King won the Southwest Stakes in January but faltered in his last and will try to regain his prior form. Cornucopian was a fast and facile winner in his only start for Bob Baffert, and the pace projector says he most likely goes to the lead again. He will have to go two turns for the first time, at a distance of nine furlongs, but that won’t stop the bettors from making him a heavy favorite.
My selection is Sandman, who has a win, along with a second and third-place finish in three starts over the Oaklawn surface. His numbers tell me he’s sitting on a big-league race.
Here are my selections:
Win & Place – Sandman
Exacta Box – Sandman, Coal Battle, Cornucopian & Publisher
2025 Gulfstream Park Oaks Preview & Picks
Let’s not forget the ladies. The 55th running of the 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream Park Oaks for 3-year-old fillies is part of a 14-race program anchored by the Florida Derby. The Oaks completes Gulfstream’s winter series of stakes for sophomore fillies and offers 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points for the Kentucky Oaks’ top five finishers. Five G, the 8-5 morning line favorite with 25 qualifying points, is named after owner Mike Gatsas’ five grandchildren. Multiple graded-stakes winner The Queens M G, the 9-5 morning line second choice, already has 43.5 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points and that’s good for sixth place in the overall point standings but she will attempt going around two turns for the first time. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, a five-time Gulfstream Park Oaks winner, will send out Cassiar, daughter to Pegasus WC winner City of Light. She has only one start in her career and it was a good one, showing she has much promise.
Here is my selection:
Win & Place – Five G
2025 The Fantasy at Oaklawn Park Preview & Picks
The other young ladies’ race on Saturday is The Fantasy at Oaklawn Park, which also offers Kentucky Oaks qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale. It’s run at 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-old fillies and has had two known winners from the past (Rachel Alexandra and Blind Luck), just to drop a few big names.
Quietside, the morning line second choice at 2-1, has proven herself among the best in the sophomore filly division. She will compete against another top contender – Simply Joking – who is two for two and installed as the 8-5 morning line top choice.
Eight other sophomore fillies will try to upset the two favorites, including Kenny McPeek trainee Take Charge Milady, who had a troubled trip in the Honeybee last time out. I believe this one has a real shot here as Brian Hernandez Jr. takes over in the saddle as last year’s Fantasy-winning jockey/trainer duo reunite from the rail position.
Here are my selections:
Win & Place – Take Charge Milady Exacta Box- Take Charge Lady, Quietside, California Sunset & Princess Em Too
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Johnny Avello is an employee of DraftKings. Personal views on the races and strategies above do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in selecting their horses to wager upon. DraftKings employees may also deploy different strategies than what is recommended above. DraftKings employees do not have access to any non-public information.