Arkansas and Texas Tech meet in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, and I have my eye on Boogie Fland in the player prop market. Let’s breakdown the pick below.
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No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
San Francisco, CA – Thursday 10:09pm ET
Boogie Fland is being overlooked in the player prop market entering Thursday’s matchup against the Red Raiders. He scored just six points in each of the first two NCAA Tournament games, returning for the first time since mid-January to play 24 and 20 minutes in those games. Fland shot terribly from the field against Kansas and St. John’s, going a combined 4-for-15, including 1-of-9 from downtown.
I’m expecting a couple of things to change in the Sweet Sixteen against Texas Tech. Fland averaged over 33 minutes per game during the regular season. With the week to get healthy and in better condition, now that he has a couple of games under his belt, I’m expecting his playing time to ramp up from the 22 minutes he’s averaging in the tournament. It’s also reasonable to assume that he’ll be able to knock the rust off his shot — the freshman is 38.4% from the field this season, including the NCAA Tournament (34.3% from beyond the arc).
The two poor shooting performances dropped Fland’s average down to 14.2 points per game, but that’s still way above where his prop is being offered. Combine more minutes and some better efficiency from Fland, and I project him clear his modest point prop of 7.5 in a great buy-low spot.
March Madness Player Prop Pick: Boogie Fland 8+ Points (-110) 1-unit
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
