Happy Father’s Day! The MLB is rewarding dads with a full day of baseball, including a nine-game early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET, a five-game afternoon slate at 4:07 p.m. ET, and a Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the Red Sox and Yankees.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s slate.
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Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres:
The Pick: Padres Moneyline (-155)
I very rarely take large favorites in baseball, but sometimes, a big favorite can still provide value. I think that’s the case Sunday with the Padres.
The Rays got off to a phenomenal start this season on offense, but they have slowly crept back toward the pack. They’re just 12th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 30 days, checking in with an almost exactly league-average mark of 102. Their strikeout rate has also climbed to the 11th against right-handers over the past 30 days, so they have plenty of swing-and-miss potential as well.
That doesn’t bode well against Joe Musgrove, who will get the ball for the Padres. Musgrove’s traditional ERA doesn’t jump off the page at 4.37, but his 2.97 xERA suggests he’s been very unlucky. He’s among the best Statcast pitchers in baseball, ranking in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity and 91st percentile in hard-hit rate, so he’s a massive progression candidate moving forward.
Meanwhile, the Rays will turn to Yonny Chirinos, who has been the exact opposite of Musgrove. His ERA sits at 2.35, but his xERA jumps all the way to 4.71. His Statcast data is all below average, so his .181 batting average on balls in play is clearly unsustainable.
The sharps have been all over the Padres in this spot, and I like their chances of securing a victory.
Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-105)
Tanner Bibee will take the mound for the Guardians on Sunday, and he’s lived up to expectations in his first MLB season. He entered the year as the No. 71 prospect in baseball per FanGraphs, and he’s pitched to a 3.91 ERA and a 3.75 xERA through his first nine MLB starts. He’s striking out just under a batter per inning, and his pedigree suggests he should continue to get outs at the MLB level. Bibee had a 1.76 ERA at Triple-A this season and a 1.83 ERA at Double-A in 2022, so he’s had success at every stop along the way.
He’ll have his hands full with the Diamondbacks, who have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. They’re leading the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West, thanks in part to guys like Corbin Carroll on offense.
However, their pitching remains a question mark. Zach Davies will get the ball vs. the Guardians, and he’s struggled so far this season. He’s pitched to a 5.46 ERA across six starts, and while his xERA and FIP are slightly better, he’s still not a pitcher to fear. Bibee checks out as the better option in virtually every category across the board, giving the Guardians a significant edge on the mound. That’s enough to make them a value at -105.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Pick: Giants Moneyline (+100)
Speaking of the Dodgers, it has been a very unusual season in Los Angeles. They’ve gotten some production from unlikely sources – J.D. Martinez and Jason Heyward have had excellent bounce-back seasons – but it hasn’t translated into the same success on the field. They’re currently sitting at 39-32, putting them on pace for their first full season without 100 wins since 2018.
They’ll send Tony Gonsolin to the bump on Sunday, and Gonsolin was phenomenal for the Dodgers in 2022. He pitched to a 2.14 ERA, but his advanced metrics weren’t nearly as impressive. The gap has been even wider in 2023, with Gonsolin posting a 1.93 ERA and a 4.14 xERA through his first nine starts. Certain pitchers are able to routinely outperform their peripherals, but a gap that wide is simply unsustainable. Gonsolin is going to come back to reality eventually, and it could start Sunday vs. the Giants.
San Francisco ranks fourth in baseball in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so they can do some damage in that split. They do tend to strike out a bunch, but Gonsolin has managed less than seven strikeouts per nine innings this season. The ball tends to go a long way when they make contact, and they should make more contact than usual on Sunday.
The Giants will also send one of the more underrated starters in baseball to the mound, Logan Webb. He’s posted a 3.15 ERA and a 2.98 xFIP this season, so he has the potential to keep this potent Dodgers’ lineup in check. I’ll roll the dice with San Fran at even money.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.