The final matchup of the night in the women’s NCAA Tournament will take place between USC and Mississippi State. Juju Watkins and company will square off with the Bulldogs for the right to face Kansas State in the Sweet 16.
USC enters this game as an 18.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Mississippi State holds +1500 odds on the Moneyline and the game total is set at 144.5.
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USC (W) Analysis
USC enters this matchup with a 29-3 overall record and the best winning percentage in program history. They went 18-1 in Big Ten conference play and earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Trojans cruised past UNC Greensboro 71-25 in the opening round. This does not even match their biggest blowout of the season, as USC defeated Cal State Northridge 124-39 back in November.
Juju Watkins headlines the production and is quickly growing into one of the faces of women’s basketball. She ranks second in the country in scoring with 24.6 points per game while adding 7.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game. Kiki Irafen is the only other player to average double-figures producing 18.0 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Kennedy Smith and Rayah Mitchell are also players to note who make their impact felt on a night-by-night basis.
Collectively, USC averages 81.1 points per game, which is the 10th-best scoring output in the country. They also rebound the ball at the 13th-best rate and limit opponents to 58.8 points per game which ranks 60th in the country The Trojans rank third in defensive rating, eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage allowed, and second in blocks per game.
Mississippi State (W) Analysis
The Mississippi State Bulldogs went 22-11 on the season and 7-9 in SEC play. They entered the NCAA Tournament as a 9-seed and defeated the University of California 59-46 in the opening round.
Three players average in double-figures for Mississippi State. Jerkaila Jordan headlines the production with 15.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Eniya Russell and Madina Okot each also average over 11.0 points per game, with Okot leading the team in rebounding at 9.7 per game. Denim Deshields and Debreasha Powe round out the starting lineup while Destiney McPhaul provides a nice spark off the bench.
The Bulldogs play an offensive brand of basketball, averaging 75.5 points per game, which ranks 39th in the country. They rank 30th in team field goal percentage and 59th in offensive rating. Defensively, there have been more struggles with Mississippi State giving up 63.2 points per game, which ranks 143rd in the country. This is particularly an area of concern for this matchup, which Watkins and company are sure to seek out every weakness they can find on this end of the floor.
The Pick: Over 144.5
My lean is in favor of USC covering the -18.5 spread, but this is just a bit too many points to feel comfortable. Instead, I have a much higher belief in Mississippi State’s offense being capable of running with the USC than the Trojans being limited on the offensive side of the floor.
The 71 points produced in the opening round by USC does not tell the full story, as the foot was taken off the gas with the game out of reach. The Trojans also showed some rust in the early portions of that game, which was kicked off as the game progressed and Watkins had to step to the sideline for a brief stretch over concern for an ankle issue. USC has scored as many as 124 points in a game individually and can be counted on to lead the charge in reaching this total. However, expect Mississippi State to put up a fight and have some stretches where they have an easier time scoring than has been the case against USC for most of this year.
If these teams were to just score their averages on the season, the game would end with 156 points scored. Mississippi State has struggled a bit offensively of late but there is enough cushion that this number is still appealing to me. Expect USC to lead the charge in reaching the total and pull away as the game progresses but for both teams to come out with better offensive showings than they had in the opening round.
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