You don’t have to worry about basketball withdrawal setting in just yet. The Women’s NCAA Tournament continues on with teams fighting for a spot in the Sweet 16 across tonight’s slate. UConn continues on its pathway for a deep tournament run and is seeking its first national championship since 2016. South Dakota State will be the next team attempting to knock out the Huskies.
Connecticut enters this game as a -29.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. There is no moneyline market available at this time for South Dakota State and the game total is set at 136.5.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
UConn Analysis
With the second-best odds of winning the entire tournament on DraftKings Sportsbook, it is no surprise to see Connecticut as a massive favorite. They cruised through their opening-round matchup, defeating Arkansas State 103-34. Arkansas State scored the first basket of the game before UConn answered with a 22-0 run and never looked back. This was the largest margin of victory, the most points scored, and the third-fewest points allowed by Connecticut in a game this season. It also was the fourth-largest margin of victory in an NCAA Tournament game in program history.
Even still, this is par for the course for UConn. They went 32-3 on the season, including a perfect 18-0 in Big East play. The Huskies have held opponents to just 51.3 points per game, the best rate in the country, while scoring the ninth-most points at 81.5 per game. They also have the best team field goal percentage, limit opponents to the third-worst field goal percentage, and turn the ball over the fourth-fewest times per game.
Paige Bueckers headlines the production with 18.7 points, 4.8 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game. While there is no doubt about the supreme talent Bueckers is, Connecticut is more than just a one-woman team. Sarah Strong adds 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.4 steals per game, while Azzi Fudd contributes 13.2 points per game and shoots a conference-leading 44.8% from beyond the three-point arc.
South Dakota State Analysis
Entering the NCAA Tournament as a 10-seed, South Dakota State defeated Oklahoma State in the opening round, 74-68, to earn the right to enter the ring for this heavyweight bout. They have had an impressive season at 30-3 overall and 16-0 in Summit League Conference play. They are not as battle-tested as UConn, but the Jackrabbits hold the 88th-ranked strength of schedule on the season.
South Dakota State averages 76.3 points per game as a team, which ranks 31st in the country. They also are holding teams to 61.6 points per game which is the 108th-best rate. The Jackrabbits rank seventh in team field goal percentage, 12th in offensive rating, and 56th in rebounding.
Three different players average double figures with Brooklyn Meyer leading the charge. The reigning Summit League Player of the Year is averaging 17.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while playing high-level defense. Haleigh Timmer and Paige Meyer each also add over 12 points per game.
The Pick: UConn -29.5
I gave some thought to taking the South Dakota State team total under 52.5 at +104 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, but I feel confident in Connecticut continuing to roll. The -29.5 line is a huge spread, but the Huskies have defeated opponents by 30+ points in 20 games this season.
The opening round was a statement performance by the Huskies in which they completely suffocated Arkansas State. Connecticut is capable of winning in either a shootout or a defensive battle and I expect both to come into play here.
The Jackrabbits only suffered three losses on the season, but one of these is a 103-57 loss to Texas. They also lost by 14 points to Georgia Tech. While Texas is in the same tier as Connecticut, the Huskies are ranked higher and provide more reasons for confidence that they will bring their best performance.
It may not look as clean as their first-round matchup, but expect Geno Auriemma’s squad to come in with a focused effort and handle business tonight. This has been an excellent season for South Dakota State but it is tough to find a defining advantage in the Jackrabbits’ favor on either side of the ball. Expect a spark of life from the Summit League Champions before UConn pours on the points and builds up a massive lead. Count on the powerhouse program to cover the -29.5 spread and have a real chance at adding their 12th National Championship at the tournament’s conclusion.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
