After a loaded weekend of college basketball, the NBA will step back into the center stage of the hoops world. Eight games will be taking place across the night’s slate, including some pretty significant matchups from a seeding and lottery odds perspective.
Three games will tip off starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Lakers will play the Orlando Magic, the Indiana Pacers will host the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Washington Wizards will square off with the Toronto Raptors. A half-hour later, the Brooklyn Nets will host the Dallas Mavericks before an 8:00 p.m. ET game between the Philadelphia 76ers and New Orleans Pelicans. Each of these matchups hold some notable weight in the bottom half of the standings, with five of the seven worst teams playing during this window.
At 9:00 p.m. ET, the Denver Nuggets will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back and facing the Chicago Bulls. Then a pair of matchups are tipping off at 10:00 p.m. ET between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks as well as the Boston Celtics and Sacramento Kings.
Keep a close eye on the injury reports as the grind of the season has taken a toll around the league. With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Monday’s slate.
Dorian Finney-Smith Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-145)
The Los Angeles Lakers are inching back to full strength with LeBron James recovered from his groin injury and Rui Hachimura returning from his absence on Saturday. Dorian Finney-Smith remained in the starting lineup but was held to just two points in 21 minutes of play. Finney-Smith shot 0-for-3 from beyond the arc in this game and has shot just 33.3% for the month from beyond the arc.
Across the 32 games with the Lakers this season, Finney-Smith is shooting 35.8% on three-point attempts on 4.3 perimeter shots per game. He is averaging 7.1 points and making 1.5 three-pointers per game. Overall, the 31-year-old has been held to under 1.5 made three-pointers in 25 of the 52 games he has played on the season and in 18 of the 32 games with the Lakers.
Los Angeles will face off with the Orlando Magic who are holding opponents to the fewest points per game and the fewest three-point attempts across the entire NBA. Finney-Smith will continue to play a part in this Lakers team but expect his minutes to be scaled back a bit following the return of Hachimura. With a tough matchup and concerns about his level of opportunity, count on Finney-Smith being held to under 1.5 three-pointers for the 19th time with the Lakers.
Immanuel Quickley Under 19.5 Points (-125)
The Toronto Raptors will face off with the Washington Wizards tonight with these two teams holding the worst and seventh-worst records in the NBA. With the lottery odds in mind, the race to the bottom has been just as competitive as the playoff race, with Toronto at the heart of this. Immanuel Quickley has rested four of his past eight games despite being a fully healthy 25-year-old. Perhaps even more jarring, the Raptors have elected to pull their starters and top players in competitive games on multiple occasions this season. Washington will make it difficult for the Raptors to pick up a loss in this game and don’t be shocked if this comes into play tonight.
When he has been on the floor, Quickley is averaging 17.3 points, 5.6 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. Toronto ranks 24th in the league in scoring and has produced at the fourth-worst rate over its past 10 games. Quickley has been held to under 19.5 points in 15 of the 28 games he has played this season.
It will be fascinating to see what the starting lineups and roster combinations look like for each of these teams tonight. However, expect Toronto to be active in limiting the possibility of Quickley taking over this game with the bigger picture in mind. Count on his minutes being limited and being held to under 19.5 points. On top of all the factors mentioned, Marcus Smart has provided a nice punch to this Wizards defense and they are ending the season with a more respectable effort than some of the teams in front of them in the standings. Expect Smart to be the primary matchup on Quickley and for the former Defensive Player of the Year to bring his usual effort level.
Justin Edwards Over 16.5 Points (-105)
The Philadelphia 76ers are another team that has bottomed out on the season and will be hoping for the best at the NBA Draft lottery. Injuries have prevented this team from ever getting a true sample size of how they were designed and they will continue to be without Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, as well as a laundry list of other players. This has opened the door for young players to make the most of their opportunities and Justin Edwards has been near the top of the list of players capitalizing on this chance. After entering the NBA Draft following his one-and-done season at Kentucky, the former top recruit went undrafted but looks to be finding his footing with his confidence growing by the game.
On the season overall, Edwards has played 37 games and is averaging 9.7 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.5 assists across his 25.5 minutes per game. His play earned a contract upgrade from a two-way deal to a standard NBA contract fairly shortly into the season and he has only shined more and more since this point. Edwards has been thrust into the starting lineup at a more regular rate and has tallied over 16.5 points in four straight games entering tonight.
Philadelphia will face off with the New Orleans Pelicans tonight who can relate to its injury issues. The Pelicans rank 27th in opponent points per game and 29th in opponent field-goal percentage. With the brutal reality of the outlook for the season having set in for most of the players on each of these teams, Edwards is among the players who still have the most to play for. Look for the Kentucky product to continue making the most of his expanded opportunity and basketball freedom by playing in attack mode tonight. Expect him to launch double-digit shot attempts against the poor Pelicans defense and record over 16.5 points for the fifth straight game.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+160)
The defending champion Boston Celtics look primed to have a chance to repeat, holding a 52-19 record on the season. Perhaps the biggest concern regarding this team is the outlook for Kristaps Porzingis. The 7-foot-2 big man has suited up for just 35 games on the season and recently missed an extended stretch with a strange sickness. Porzingis missed last night’s game with return from illness reconditioning as the listed reason by Celtics PR. Boston is set to play the second night of a back-to-back tonight and the expectation seems to be that Porzingis will be active, but keep an eye on the injury report leading up to tip-off.
When he has been on the court, the impact of Kristaps Porzingis is clear. During the 35 games and 28.9 minutes per game he has played, Porzingis is still averaging 19.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.6 blocks per game. The Latvia product is shooting 39.6% from beyond the three-point arc while attempting 5.9 perimeter shots per game. Porzingis has connected on over 2.5 three-pointers in 16 of the 35 games he has played this season.
Boston will take on the Sacramento Kings tonight who have had some defensive struggles. They rank 21st in opponent points per game, 25th in opponent field-goal percentage and dead last in opponent three-point percentage allowed. Assuming he is available, look for Porzingis to attack this weakness and have a chance for an expanded role with fresher legs than most of his teammates. Porzingis remains a key part of this Celtics’ team and his value speaks for himself when he is on the floor. He has recorded over 2.5 made three-pointers in three of his past five games and taking a chance on the +160 odds is worth a swing tonight with the Kings’ defensive weakness in mind.
