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No. 8 Connecticut vs. No. 1 Florida
Raleigh, NC – Sunday 12:10pm ET
UConn has now won and covered a ridiculous 13 straight NCAA Tournament games, but Dan Hurley and the Huskies are about to get a dose of their own medicine. UConn did not play well in its win over Oklahoma, as the Sooners did their best to beat themselves in an ugly one on Friday night. Now the Huskies are set to run into a buzzsaw in the Gators, and I think this one should get ugly early.
The Gators have that elite balance on both sides of the ball that UConn had the past couple of season. Florida entered the NCAA Tournament ranked atop the nation in offensive efficiency, but also top-10 in defensive efficiency. While the Huskies top-15 offense will do its best to hang around, they’re just barely inside the top-100 on defense. That’s going to be a massive issue.
The Gators have a trio of elite guards in the starting lineup, and a very deep rotation of bigs that should give the Huskies fits. Going to the trends, Florida has started games fast out of the gate all season, and UConn has typically come out pretty sluggish. I’m expecting things to go to script early in this one, and backing the Gators on the first half spread.
March Madness Pick: Florida 1H -5.5 (-110) 1.5-units
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Iowa State
Milwaukee, WI – Sunday 7:45pm ET
Iowa State plays this evening, but putting this one higher up in the article because I’m pairing them with the Gators (early tip) on a moneyline parlay. The Cyclones entered the tournament a bit dinged up, and the loss of Keshon Gilbert is costly. However, they did get their point guard back from injury in the first round — Tamin Lipsey returned and looked healthy in 24 minutes (he didn’t need to play more in a blowout).
Lipsey is the engine that makes this offense go, and his impact should be much more of a factor against the Rebels. Iowa State has advantages on both sides of the ball in this one, particularly on defense, ranking top-10 in efficiency. Most metrics have the Cyclones as a top-10 team overall in the country, and I’m expecting them to frustrate Ole Miss in this one. While Ole Miss got the best of North Carolina in the first round, the Tar Heels came out completely flat before making a massive comeback. UNC was down 22 before trimming the deficit to three points late in the game. It was an example of how the Rebels can be exposed when UNC pushed the pace in the second half.
Unlike the Heels, the Cyclones should be able to put together a full game here. Ole Miss can struggle on the glass, entering the tournament with a -3.6 rebounding margin. Look for Iowa State to be more efficient on both ends, and getting some extra possessions on the offensive boards should provide a nice boost.
March Madness Pick: Florida/Iowa State MLP (-140) 1-unit
No. 6 Illinois vs. No. 3 Kentucky
Milwaukee, WI – Sunday 5:15pm ET
The Illini and Wildcats both looked strong in their tournament openers on Friday, but Illinois handled stronger competition in Xavier. While defeating Troy isn’t a knock on Kentucky, Mark Pope’s team did limp to the finish line at the end of SEC play. Some of that has to do with health, as the Wildcats are pretty dinged up, specifically in the backcourt. Jaxson Robinson is shutdown for the season, while Lamont Butler is really laboring through games.
Butler will be key in this one, as his presence on the floor is massive for Kentucky’s offense. If his injury is at all an issue, which it has been in the games he’s played recently, that’ll set the Wildcats back. I’m not sure Kentucky can afford that against the Illini. Illinois comes in on a solid 5-1 SU/ATS run, with the five wins by an average of 14.6 points.
Forget the seeding in this one. A 3-seed was pretty generous for Kentucky, and most metrics have these teams pretty close to even. While the Wildcats are slightly better offensively, that changes without Robinson and a healthy Butler. I’d give the edge to Illinois here, who’s defense ranks 41st in efficiency compared to 56th for Kentucky. Illinois also controls the glass, with a +7.8 rebound margin entering the tournament, while Kentucky is just about even.
I grabbed Illinois on the opening line in our DK Network betting group, but would play the Illini out to -140. With advantages on defense and the backboard (and I think on offense too), it’s easy to see why the 6-seed is a growing favorite here.
March Madness Pick: Illinois ML (+100) 1.5-units
No. 7 St. Mary’s vs. No. 2 Alabama
Cleveland, OH – Sunday 6:10pm ET
Alabama did not play well at all in a first round win over Robert Morris, needing to go to an injured Grant Nelson late in the game to get them over the hump. The plan was clearly to save Nelson, but that didn’t work out. That said, it was nice to see that he’s capable of coming in and making an impact ahead of the matchup against St. Mary’s.
I expect Nate Oats to have his team ready to go early, with plenty of motivation to use after how the Tide played against a 15-seed. On the other end of the spectrum, the Gaels had to dig deep to erase a 12-point deficit to Vanderbilt, and snuck away with a last second victory. Another sluggish start against a more talented and highly motivated team could be in the cards here. That pushes me onto the double result here, for ‘Bama to lead at halftime and win the game.
I’m also going to play the under on the total here, which generally is playing with fire in an Alabama game. However, the Gaels have absolutely no shot in this one unless they do their best to play this game at their own pace. The Crimson Tide rank fourth in offensive efficiency and play at the fastest tempo in the country. Speed this game up, and St. Mary’s gets run out of the gym, and it knows this. The Gaels rank 359th in Tempo and are eighth in defensive efficiency. Ultimately, I think ‘Bama finds enough offense to win the game. But this won’t be your typical SEC game. I played the under in the first round against Vandy, and will go back to it here. I’m not worried about ‘Bama being a little sloppy on defense. This is all about the pace the Gaels know they need to play.
March Madness Pick: Alabama Halftime/Fulltime (-130) 1-unit
March Madness Pick: UNDER 149.5 (-115) 1-unit
No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 4 Maryland
Seattle, WA – Sunday 7:10pm ET
Colorado State really struggled with Memphis’ size and talent in the first half on Friday, but dug deep in the second half and won behind some hot shooting from downtown. We likely see a bit of shooting regression here against a Maryland defense that ranks sixth in the country. The Memphis big men were able to dominate the paint and the glass for much of the game, and the Rams’ bigs are in for a rude awakening in this one.
The Terps have one of the best big man duos in the country, and should give CSU fits around the rim. Maryland also has stronger point guard play and perimeter shooting than the Tigers, leaving the Rams in a tough spot. CSU is going to have to shoot the lights out once again, and likely get the Maryland bigs into foul trouble to have a chance in this one.
No. 10 New Mexico vs. No. 2 Michigan State
Cleveland, OH – Sunday 8:40pm ET
I’ll go for another Mountain West fade here and piece them together on a moneyline parlay. Richard Pitino led the Lobos to a great win over Marquette in the first round, but Shaka Smart’s team had a really brutal finish to the season after peaking back in December and January. New Mexico has solid talent, but should have a much more difficult time going against a really deep and physical Michigan State roster.
Sparty entered the NCAA Tournament ranked fifth in defensive efficiency, and will be rotating in a lot of bodies to wear the Lobos down. While I see MSU’s defense as more of the key in this one, it’s also worth noting that Tom Izzo’s squad has a pretty sizable advantage on the offensive end. New Mexico entered the tournament ranked 79th in offensive efficiency, while Sparty was 27th.
The Mountain West got a couple of wins in the first round, but the run ends here.
March Madness Pick: Maryland/Michigan State MLP (-140) 1.5-units
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Arizona
Seattle, WA – Sunday 9:40pm ET
I was able to grab the Ducks on the opener, but would play them down to +3.5 in the game. I was surprised at the number, and agree with the move in the market. We get a nice PAC-12 throwback game here, and Arizona and Oregon are each coming off dominant wins in the first round. Both teams are very solid on defense, and rank pretty close to even. Arizona does have the advantage on offense, and will try to speed up the tempo in this game. But despite the Wildcats’ edge with offensive firepower, I think the Ducks have ways to offset the game.
Oregon’s season has been inconsistent, and a down stretch in February might have turned its season around. The Ducks dropped five in a row, which really hurt their metrics and seeding in this tournament. Since that five-game losing streak, Dana Altman’s team has ripped off nine wins in 10 games, with the lone loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. Altman is a big reason I like the Ducks in this one, holding a massive coaching advantage over Tommy Lloyd. Look for Oregon to keep this one tight, and have a shot at the upset.
March Madness Pick: Oregon +5.5 (-110) 1-unit
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
