The NCAA Tournament is in full swing with the madness of the opening weekend winding down. With the round of 64 complete and tickets being punched to the Sweet 16, the battle to be the lone remaining roster continues. Competing in the South portion of the bracket, Michigan State will face off with New Mexico for the right to advance to the Sweet 16.
Michigan State enters this game as a -7.5-point favorite and -325 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. New Mexico holds +260 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 147.5.
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Michigan State Analysis
Michigan State entered the NCAA Tournament as a dark horse threat to win it all and looked the part in the opening game. The Spartans fought off an impressive effort from 15-seeded Bryant at the start of the game to ultimately cruise to an 87-62 victory.
On the season overall, Michigan State holds a 28-7 record. It ranks 69th in the country in scoring and 45th in points allowed while holding the 28th-ranked strength of schedule. Tom Izzo’s squad went 13-5 against Quad-1 opponents and limit opponents to the worst three-point percentage in the country, with teams shooting 27.7% from beyond the arc. Most of the Spartans’ offensive production also occurs inside the arc. Michigan State ranks 313th in the country in three-point attempts and 323rd in three-point percentage.
This is not the most talented Michigan State team you have ever seen and Tom Izzo is the first guy to tell you that. But they play a team-oriented style of basketball with each guy bought into their role. Jaden Askins and Jase Richardson headline the production but Michigan State is deeper than most teams in the tournament and will have this advantage over New Mexico.
New Mexico Analysis
Richard Pitino made history with his first-round matchup making it the first time in NCAA Tournament history that a father and son have each advanced. The New Mexico Lobos took down Marquette 75-66 to earn this second-round matchup with Michigan State.
While they were put in front of the largest audience of the year on the NCAA Tournament stage, the Lobos has been producing all season. They have gone 27-7 on the season and were 17-3 in Mountain West play. The Lobos start games quickly, entering the tournament ranked in the top 40 in first-half scoring margin (+7.2), and don’t let their foot off the gas. They average 81.1 points per game, which ranks 27th in the country, and rank 19th in field goal attempts per game. Defensively, they have been inconsistent but have shown high-level ability in spurts.
Donovan Dent headlines the production averaging 20.6 points and 6.4 assists per game. He is the only player in the nation to average 20+ points and 6+ assists and also the only player to have three games with 30+ points and 10+ assists. Dent will continue to serve as the full engine of the offense with Nelly Junior Joseph, Tru Washington, and Mustaha Amzil each also are averaging double figures.
The Pick: New Mexico +7.5
This NCAA Tournament has been starved of a true Cinderella story and New Mexico has a chance to deliver in this category. They are a live underdog in this game and I like the Lobos to cover the +7.5.
Donovan Dent will hold up in comparison to Michigan State’s guard play and don’t rule out him looking like the best player on the floor. 49.8% of the minutes played on last year’s New Mexico roster, which lost in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament to Clemson, returned for this season. Continuity is becoming increasingly uncommon in college basketball and the scars built up through battle together could be in their favor. It also was extremely encouraging to see the Lobos limited to mostly a half-court battle against Marquette and still find a way to win.
Michigan State will be a notch up in talent level, but New Mexico has beaten UCLA, Colorado State, and Utah State already this year. While the Spartans are still a notch above these teams in terms of quality, New Mexico has not blinked when under the bright lights and expect the same in this game. While New Mexico suffered a 14-point loss to St. Johns, so did Michigan State.
The Spartans have not been overly impressive in putting teams away this year. They also have suffered losses to Indiana, Kansas, Memphis, USC, UCLA, and Wisconsin this season.
Count on the Lobos to just enough to stick around throughout this game and have a real push in them to have a chance to win outright. Their up-tempo style allows for spurts of scoring to occur regularly and translates well to March Madness play. In contrast, if Michigan State falls behind it will be difficult to mount a comeback with its struggles from beyond the three-point arc. It will take New Mexico leveling up their quality of play again after the opening round but the Lobos are capable of doing exactly this.
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