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No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis
Seattle, WA – Friday 2:00pm ET
The 12-seeded Rams opener up favored over 5-seed Memphis, but the moneyline did get as high as -155, so the price has come down since Selection Sunday. Let’s start with the key injury to Memphis, as Tyrese Hunter missed the AAC Championship Game, and was hopping around on the bench in a boot. Assuming he misses this game, that’s a big deal for the Tigers. Hunter played 34 minutes per game this season and shot 40% from downtown, while averaging 13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists.
Now let’s address the other elephant in the room — the Mountain West has been dreadful in recent tournaments, and San Diego State didn’t exactly inspire hope against North Carolina on Tuesday. That said, Colorado State is just about as hot as any team in the country, and in some metrics, rank as a top-10 team over the last month.
Since February 15, the Rams are a perfect 10-0 straight up, including 10-0 ATS, winning every game by eight or more points. Memphis comes in hot too, winning eight in a row, but are also just 7-13 ATS over the last 20 games. CSU has been far exceeding expectations, while Memphis has just been going through the motions.
On paper these teams grade out amazingly even. Two things jump out to me, though. Firstly, I expect the Rams to be much more productive on the offensive side of the ball. CSU ranks 43rd in offensive efficiency, while the Tigers rank just 72nd, and we can expect that number to drop without Hunter. The second thing is tempo, where Memphis plays at a rapid pace (27th in tempo), versus the Rams grinding games out (252nd in tempo).
I think a hotter, healthier Colorado State team winds up more efficient and controlling the pace here, which should be enough to advance to the next round. It also doesn’t hurt that the Rams will have the best player on the floor in this one — NBA prospect Nique Clifford has been scorching hot of late.
March Madness Pick: CSU ML (-125) 2.5-units
No. 10 Vanderbilt vs. No. 7 St. Mary’s
Cleveland, OH – Friday 3:15pm ET
Pace of play will be everything in this one, and St. Mary’s should be determined to control the tempo. The last thing the Gaels want to do it start playing at SEC speed. Vandy ranks 64th in the nation in tempo, which is fast, but not compared to the elite of the SEC. Meanwhile, St. Mary’s is 359th in tempo. The Gaels want to play at a snail’s pace here and let their eighth-ranked defensive efficiency dictate the game.
Vandy is just 83rd in defensive efficiency, but I’m not too worried about that side of the floor. St. Mary’s can play efficiently on offense, but as long as its grinding the clock, this game should have limited possessions. The Gaels have played to the under in 10 of their last 12 games, many of those numbers set right in the neighborhood of 135.5.
Another aspect of this game that I like is the rebounding edge that St. Mary’s has had this season. SMC is a +11.9 in rebounding margin, compared to -2.7 for the Commodores. Sure, SEC size might limit the Gaels a bit more on the glass, but if St. Mary’s is controlling the boards in this game, extra possessions will mean slower possessions. The Gaels will be looking to avenge being upset by Grand Canyon in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, and if they’re able to do that, we should see this one play to the under.
March Madness Pick: UNDER 135.5 (-108) 1-unit
No. 11 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Milwaukee, WI – Friday 4:05pm ET
Not sure if you guys heard or not, but North Carolina had no business getting into the tournament, according to just about everyone. Oh well, the Tar Heels pounded San Diego State in the play-in round, and now head to Milwaukee to face the Rebels. Colorado State is the only other lower seed that opened a favorite, as UNC did here against Ole Miss.
Whatever you want to say about Carolina, there’s no doubt that this team improved a lot over the last 4-6 weeks of the season, and is finally playing its best basketball. Remember, the Heels were a preseason top-10 team, and they’re starting to play like it. UNC has won nine of its last 11, with both losses to Duke, and are 9-1 ATS over the last 10 games. The knock on this team is the 1-12 Quad 1 record, but Carolina is an impressive 22-3 straight up when favored, which it is in this game.
The big question in this game is if UNC’s defense can hold up, which ranks 53rd in efficiency. I believe it will. The Tar Heels have improved on that side of the ball during their hot stretch, and should have an advantage rebounding the ball in this game. UNC had a +7.3 rebounding margin this season, while Ole Miss was -3.6. The Rebels have been trending in the opposite direction of the Heels, going 3-12 ATS over their last 12. I’ll back UNC to play to its potential and advance again.
March Madness Pick: UNC ML (-120) 1.5-units
No. 13 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 Maryland
Seattle, WA – Friday 4:35pm ET
The Antelopes became darlings last March, upsetting St. Mary’s in the first round, and then giving an Alabama team that reached the Final Four all it could handle, before the Tide ultimately broke the game open late. Grand Canyon returns much of that core, and now will make another attempt at a tournament run. Unfortunately, the ‘Lopes draw a super talented Maryland team, so winning outright will be a tall order. But they have the talent to hang around in this game.
While the ‘Lopes haven’t seen a team as talented as the Terps this season, Grand Canyon is 3-0 ATS when priced as a dog this season, including a pair of outright victories. The most favorable number for Grand Canyon should be pace of play. The ‘Lopes rank 14th in tempo, so they should see a lot of possessions in this game. Their offense is versatile, and if things breakdown, they have talented players that can go get a bucket.
This was a team I was hoping got a matchup that I could play them to advance a round or two, and while I don’t love the draw in Maryland, the spread is too many points for me to layoff.
March Madness Pick: Grand Canyon +10.5 (-110) 1-unit
No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 Connecticut
Raleigh, NC – Friday 9:25pm ET
We should be in for a barn burner with these game, as a couple of elite offenses and shaky defenses square off on Friday night. UConn was right around .500 to the total this season, but the Big East can be a slower more physical game, especially as the season grinds on. I expect facing off against a fast SEC team to speed the Huskies up, and that should be good news for the 14th-most efficient offense in the country.
Oklahoma is 20-13 to the over this season, including overs in six of its last seven. The Sooners are nearly as efficient on offense, ranking 21st nationally. Defensively, both teams leave much to be desired. Oklahoma is 70th in defensive efficiency, while the Huskies are just 94th, a far fall from their National Championship rosters.
Both of these teams shoot it well from deep, and give themselves second chance opportunities. Expect fireworks in Raleigh in what should be an exciting game that plays to the over.
March Madness Pick: OVER 147.5 (-110) 2-units
No. 11 Xavier vs. No. 6 Illinois
Milwaukee, WI – Friday 9:45pm ET
Xavier was dead in the water on Wednesday night against Texas, trailing by double digits late in the second half. Somehow, the Musketeers pulled away to win the game, with plenty of help from the home crowd in Dayton. I’m a bit down on Xavier, and winning big games has not been this team’s calling card this season. Texas letting go of the rope late has been an issue, and is likely the reason the Longhorns fired Rodney Terry after the game.
The Musketeers are just 1-9 in Quad 1 games, and now have to play on a quick turnaround following an emotional win. That comeback in what was essentially a home game took a lot out of Xavier. It’ll need to hit the reset button quickly against an Illinois team that is very tough, talented and tested.
The win over Texas improved Xavier to just 2-11 as an underdog this season, and while it’s 6-7 ATS in those games, they’ve been outscored by over seven points per game. Prior to its loss to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, Illinois had been getting into a nice groove, winning and covering four straight games. Now the Illini have had a full week off to chew on a blowout loss to the Terps. It’s a great spot to be in, particularly against a team still riding high from Wednesday night in Dayton.
While both teams rank pretty evenly defensively, Illinois holds big advantages on offense (15th in efficiency versus 52nd for Xavier) and rebounding the ball. The Illini have good size, and a +7.8 rebound margin this season. I expect Illinois’ guards to make some big plays in this game, and the Illini to break this one open as the game goes on.
March Madness Pick: Illinois -3 (-110) 1.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
