The NBA apparently loves to alternate small slates with huge ones. On Tuesday, there were just four games before 11 last night.
Tonight? Five. At least it’s a good number for this best bets column. Here are my top bets for Thursday’s games at DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s hoops action.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Pascal Siakam 25+ Points (+185)
The Pacers are in position to pip the Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons to home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs because of their stellar play since January 1. Since the turn of the calendar, Indiana has a 23-11 record — tied for the ninth-best in the league — and a plus-4.4 net rating that is also fourth. Across that span, Siakam — who’s appeared in all but one game this season — has averaged 22.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on a very solid 58.2% effective field goal percentage. He’s recorded 25 or more points in each of his last four games, including a 29-point outburst on just 16 shots against the depleted Dallas Mavericks last night in the absence of co-star Tyrese Haliburton, who’s questionable for tonight with a back injury as well. I’m not banking on Haliburton to play, but three of his outbursts came alongside the former King.
Plus, Brooklyn has been pretty bad defensively over since the All-Star break — a span that now stretches a month — posting the league’s eighth-worst defensive rating since then, and the Nets have lost 12 of their 15 games. Top scorer Cam Thomas has been shut down for the season and Cameron Johnson, arguably the team’s best player and one of its only net-positive defenders, is resting. The tank is truly on, and Spicy P — who continues to be one of the league’s more underrated players — stands to benefit the most.
New York Knicks -7.5 (-108)
Part of the Knicks’ offseason strategy in bringing in Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges was to provide a buffer against an injury to Jalen Brunson, given that he suffered a fractured hand late in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals last season against the Pacers and New York looked utterly lifeless after. The southpaw was remarkably healthy for the first 62 games of the season, but a sprained ankle that Brunson sustained against the Lakers two weeks ago seemed to put a major dent in the Knicks’ hopes of finishing the season strong. However, New York has gone 3-3 since his injury with a plus-3.4 net rating and the league’s fifth-best defense — certainly not championship-level, but passable. Possibly good enough to win a first-round playoff series, should Brunson need that long. Certainly good enough to beat the Hornets by eight or more points, which has happened 10 times in Charlotte’s last 15 games.
The Hornets should have a slightly higher ceiling than usual tonight, granted LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, who are both listed as probable, actually play. I don’t think it’ll matter, though; Ball has suited up in eight of the team’s last 10 games and the only wins that he’s led them to have come against a Miami Heat team that’s on a nine-game losing streak and a San Antonio Spurs unit missing both Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox that has been expectedly dreadful since the former’s season-ending injury. That San Antonio game aside, Ball hasn’t been shooting it well, and that probably won’t change against a Knicks squad that has allowed the fourth-lowest field goal percentage since Brunson’s injury. Meanwhile, Charlotte has the league’s fourth-worst defensive rating since the All-Star break and New York has more than enough offensive talent to carve it up.
Zach LaVine U31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105)
Technically, this is LaVine’s revenge game, since it marks the first time he will play the Bulls since being traded to Sacramento. I did a study on revenge games prior to Luka Dončić’s first game against the Mavericks, and the results were mixed, but overall, players tended to underperform their season averages in combined points, rebounds, and assists while shooting the ball slightly more inefficiently. For his part, Dončić over-performed his recent form quite significantly — especially since he got off to a rough start in Los Angeles — but he still fell short of his lofty 48.5-P/R/A line. LaVine’s 31.5-P/R/A line is pretty high, given that he’s only averaged 30.3 P/R/A as a King so far and, in fact, he’s gone under 31.5 P/R/A in each of his last four games.
To be fair, Chicago has played awful defense all season, which is probably a bigger part of the reason for the line being so high than the fact that it’s LaVine’s revenge game. For the season, the Bulls have had the seventh-worst defensive rating in basketball while playing at the league’s third-fastest pace. It’s not like they have any strong points, either; Chicago has allowed the second-most points, second-most rebounds, and third-most assists per game while forcing the third-fewest turnovers. LaVine’s scoring output, theoretically, should be helped by the fact that Domantas Sabonis is out with an injury. But Sacramento has lots of options — DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk, and Jonas Valančiūnas have all posted higher usage rates than LaVine since Sabonis’ original injury on March 3.
Toronto Raptors-Golden State Warriors U224.5 (-112)
The Warriors have been excellent since trading for Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline, especially on defense. Since Butler’s debut, Golden State is 15-3 and has allowed the second-fewest points, fifth-fewest rebounds, and fourth-fewest assists per game. The Warriors have held opponents under 105 points eight separate times since Butler’s debut, which — not so coincidentally — is the Raptors’ over-under points prop. To be fair, Golden State has gone over its own points prop of 119.5 eight times since the deal, but it has gone under in each of its last three games. Toronto, too, has been okay since the trade deadline despite seemingly having its eyes set on the top of the lottery, going 8-9 and allowing the 11th-fewest points and sixth-fewest assists. This is a battle between two very solid defensive teams, so it should be low-scoring. Each of the last two Raptors games and the last three Golden State contests have gone under the total.
