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No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 7 Kansas
Providence, RI – Thursday 7:10pm ET
John Calipari versus Bill Self in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? What more could we ask for? Coach Cal and the Hogs got off to a rough start in his first season at the helm, but they’ve steadily improved of late. Kansas, the preseason No. 1 overall, has been trending in the opposite direction.
The Jayhawks played well at home this season, per usual, finishing with a 14-3 record. But they went just 7-9 SU/ATS in road and neutral games combined, really struggling to put it all together. Just going off recent performance against the market in the second half of the season, Kansas limps in on a 6-12 ATS skid, while Arkansas has picked it up to go on a 10-2-1 ATS run.
The numbers on these two teams are pretty comparable on the whole, which pushes me towards the hotter team that’s getting the points, and feels to be playing with house money. As is typically the case with a Coach Cal team, it has the talent to compete with anybody, and has shown that over the past couple of months. The Hogs took down Vandy, Texas (twice), Missouri and Kentucky since the start of February, and even pushed Auburn and Alabama down to the wire in narrow losses.
I played Arkansas +5.5 on Selection Sunday in the DK Network betting group, and am comfortable betting them down to +3.5. I have the Razorbacks advancing in my bracket, and wouldn’t at all be surprised to see them move on to the next round if you’re bold enough to fire on some moneyline.
March Madness Pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-110) 1.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
