Florida and Houston are set to do battle in San Antonio on Monday night with the National Championship on the line. Let’s breakdown the best bet on the game below.
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March Madness Best Bets | Monday, April 7
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 1 Houston – San Antonio, TX (Monday 8:50pm ET)
I’ve been riding these two teams down the stretch of the regular season, into conference tournaments and throughout the NCAA Tournament, not to mention backing them both in many futures markets. This was my ideal National Championship matchup, both as a bettor and a fan, and now here we are. It would pain me to go against either of these teams at this point, but I have a stronger belief in Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars pulling out this game.
You can have the debate if it’s a “bad spot” for Houston after its miraculous late game heroics against Duke, but these Cougars have been allergic to bad spots all season, and I don’t see one coming in the Natty. After stunning Duke, some of the players made the comparison to their win at Kansas, erasing late deficits in regulation and overtime to pull out a nearly impossible win. The next game, the Cougars went on the road to West Virginia and won by 14 points. After taking three losses in November, Houston has lost one game since the start of December — by one point in overtime to Texas Tech. This team is never out of a game, and is guaranteed to be playing as hard and as smart as it can at all times.
That brings me to the coaching advantage here. Sampson has been doing this a long time, and this is his best chance to get over the hump and win a National Championship at age 69. The quick turnaround favors the Cougars, who have been strong in this spot all season and all tournament. After the first-round, Houston had to face arguably the greatest 8-seed in NCAA Tournament history in a Gonzaga team most metrics ranked top-10 in the nation. The Cougars jumped out to a 14-point lead, ultimately winning by five points in a game the Zags never led. After a battle against Purdue in the Boilermakers home state in the Sweet Sixteen, Sampson had a two-day turnaround to an elite Tennessee team in the Elite Eight. Houston led by as many as 22 points in a wire-to-wire victory that was never in doubt.
Meanwhile, 39-year-old Todd Golden and the Gators have had some issues with these quick tournament turnarounds. After a dominant first-round, UConn had Florida on the ropes two days later. The Gators trailed most of the second half, winning by just two points as nearly a double digit favorite. After dismantling a good Maryland team in the Sweet Sixteen, Texas Tech had Florida basically buried. The Gators trailed much of the game, and had to dig out of a 10-point hole with just a few minutes left. Each time we saw a combination of Florida’s opponent melting down, and some late heroics by Walter Clayton Jr. In the case of Houston, I trust the Cougars not to melt, and they should be as disciplined as any team in the country to at least give Clayton a tough time.
Florida has a bit more depth and size than Houston, but hey, so did Duke. I give massive coaching and toughness advantages to the Cougars, and think this veteran squad is built to breakthrough in this spot.
National Championship Best Bet: Houston ML (-105) 2-units
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Those are my best March Madness bets on DraftKings Sportsbook! Check back later for more picks for the next slate.
