The NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed on Selection Sunday, and some of the most telling and important betting action comes within the first hours of having those games on the board. Using the DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits, available for free on DK Network, let’s breakdown which teams have been the most popular upset picks in the first round — all betting splits referenced in this article are as of 12pm ET on Monday, March 17. That indicates roughly an 18-hour window of betting since the games became available on the board.
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No. 13 High Point +8.5 vs. No. 4 Purdue
High Point opened a 10.5-point underdog to Purdue, but moved to +8.5 by Monday morning. Over 90% of the money is on the Panthers to cover the spread.
No. 14 Montana +16.5 vs. No. 3 Wisconsin
Montana opened getting 18.5 points against Wisco, but has been bet down two full points entering Monday. The Grizzlies have taken 77% of the money to cover the spread, but also 73% of the money to win the game outright!
No. 10 Arkansas +4.5 vs. No. 7 Kansas
Not your classic upset here, as a couple of heavyweights that had disappointing seasons meet in the first round. That said, 85% of the money is on Arkansas to cover the game and also win the game over the Jayhawks. The Hogs also upset Kansas two years ago in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
No. 13 Yale +7.5 vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
After upsetting Auburn last season, bettors are going right back to the Bulldogs this year. Yale has taken 85% of the money to cover the spread, but also 58% of the money to win outright.
No. 10 Utah State +5.5 vs. No. 7 UCLA
Utah State is gaining a lot of trust from bettors, seeing 60% of the money to cover the game, but they’re fading UCLA even harder on the moneyline. The Aggies have 75% of the handle on them to win the game outright.
No. 10 Vanderbilt +3.5 vs. No. 7 St. Mary’s
While the money is split perfectly even on the spread in this game, a whopping 86% of the dollars are on Vandy to win. The spread did open 5.5 in this one, so it has moved a couple of points. Keep in mind, St. Mary’s was upset in the first round last season by Grand Canyon.
No. 13 Grand Canyon +10.5 vs. No. 4 Maryland
Speaking of Grand Canyon! The Antelopes return a talented team, and bettors are well aware of the success they had last season. Over 90% of the money is on Grand Canyon to cover the spread in this game, while 73% is on the ‘Lopes to win outright.
No. 13 Akron +14.5 vs. No. 4 Arizona
Akron opened getting 15.5 in this game and was bet down a bit. This is a talented veteran team, and bettors remember Arizona falling as a 2-seed to No. 15 Princeton recently. The Zips have taken an insane 96% of the money to cover the game, and an even more impressive 92% of the money to win it.
No. 15 Bryant +17.5 vs. No. 2 Michigan State
This might be the most surprising of the group, but Bryant has received not only 67% of the money to cover this game, but 78% of the money to pull the massive upset! It goes against a lot of futures wagers, with Sparty taking a lot of money in markets to make a deep run.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
