The dust has settled in the Big Ten Conference Tournament and it is down to Wisconsin and Michigan to fight it out to be crowned conference champion.
Both these teams hold strong footing with their outlook for the NCAA Tournament so this matchup does not hold quite as much weight as some other conference battles. Even still, Michigan has not been crowned Big Ten champions since 2018 while Wisconsin last won it in 2015.
These teams first faced off on December 3rd with Michigan coming out on top in a tightly contested 67-64 victory. Michigan outscored Wisconsin 41-32 in the second half to secure the victory, but plenty has changed for both teams since this time. Michigan will be riding high off a thrilling last-second victory in which Tre Donaldson dropped in the game-winning layup with less than a second to play. Wisconsin also had a thrilling battle with Michigan State which ended 77-74 in the Badgers’ favor.
Wisconsin enters this game as a -3.5-point favorite and -175 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Michigan holds +145 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 150.5.
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Michigan Analysis
Dusty May’s squad has climbed to as high as 12th in the National rankings this season and currently is recognized as the 22nd-best team in the country from the AP Poll. They hold an overall record of 23-9 and have gone 14-6 in conference play. Michigan has gone 10-7 in Quad 1 matchups and has a pair of Quad 2 losses to their name at the hands of Minnesota and Wake Forest. Their most impressive wins were over Xavier, Wisconsin, Indiana, UCLA, Oregon, Nebraska, and Purdue twice.
The Wolverines average 78.8 points per game which ranks 65th in the country. They shoot 47.9% from the field as a team, the 35th-best rate, rank 37th in assists, and 52nd in rebounds per game. Michigan attempts 24.7 three-point attempts per game which is the 91st most in the country. However, they connect on just 33.5% of these attempts which ranks 210th.
They have had more problems defensively and give up 71.5 points per game. This ranks 170th in the country. On the positive side, opponents are shooting just 40.7% from the field against them, the 35th-best rate, and 31.9% from beyond the three-point arc which ranks 83rd.
There is plenty of size on the roster with two seven-footers sharing the starting lineup which is rare in college. Vladislav Goldin headlines the scoring production with 16.6 points per game. He also adds 6.8 rebounds per game and leads the conference in effective field goal percentage. His 7-foot counterpart Danny Wolf also adds 13.0 points, 3.8 assists, and a conference-leading 9.8 rebounds per game. Tre Donaldson is the only other player to average double-figures with 11.6 points per game.
Wisconsin Analysis
Wisconsin has climbed to as high as 11th in the AP Poll during the season and is currently ranked 18th in the country. The Badgers are 25-8 on the season and have gone 13-7 in Big Ten play. They are 7-7 in Quad 1 matchups but went 10-1 when facing Quad 2 teams. Their lone Quad 2 loss was at the hands of Penn State while their most impressive victories include beating Arizona, USC, Illinois, UCLA, and Iowa.
They average 80.6 points per game which ranks 36th in the country. They attack from beyond the three-point arc often launching 28.1 three-pointers per game, the 27th most in the country, and connect at a 35.7% rate. This perimeter percentage ranks 82nd in the country. They also shoot the best free-throw percentage in the country at 82.8% as a team.
Defensively, the Badgers give up 70.7 points per game which ranks 138th in the country. They provide little rim resistance, blocking just 2.2 shots per game which ranks 331st in the country. Wisconsin only forces 10.2 turnovers per game which ranks 317th in the country although opponents are shooting just 41.7% against them- the 65th-best rate.
John Tonje is at the epicenter of everything they do and is one of the finalists for the 2025 Mike Naismith Trophy Men’s Player of the Year. Tonje averages 19.1 points and 5.2 rebounds while shooting 39.8% from beyond the three-point arc. John Blackwell is the only other player to average double-figures with his 15.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Steven Crowl, Nolan Winter, and Max Klesmit each also pitch in 9.5 points per game or greater.
The Pick: Wisconsin -3.5
Wisconsin has been a streaky team all season but looks to be playing some of its best basketball after a wake-up call from the late-season loss to Penn State. They have put forth convincing performances since this point defeating Northwestern 70-63, UCLA 86-70, and Michigan State 77-74 each during this conference tournament.
During the regular season matchup between these two teams, Wisconsin shot an uncharacteristic 6-for-27 (22.2%) from beyond the three-point arc. This was the third-worst three-point performance across the 33 games they have played this season. Just shooting slightly better would have changed the outlook of that game and expect this in the rematch.
Wisconsin is one of the few teams in the country built to match up with Michigan’s pair of seven-footers. Steven Crowl measures in at seven-foot while Nolan Winter is 6-foot-11 and they will be necessary in this matchup. Both are high-level rebounders who will help limit the second-chance opportunities and prevent Michigan from being able to make a significant interior impact. While they do not shine as rim protectors, expect their size and willingness to compete to be enough to limit the impact of Michigan’s frontcourt.
John Tonje has been the best player on the floor in each game he has played in during this tournament and expect this to be the case in this game. He exploded for 32 points against Michigan State and also had 26 points against UCLA. Tonje still finished with 18 points in the regular season matchup with Michigan but shot 5-for-12 from the field.
Wisconsin will go as far as Tonje will take them and this is a promising outlook right now. Expect the 6-foot-5 guard to be at the epicenter of the production and make a final statement before the NCAA Tournament. Michigan escaped the regular season game in one of Wisconsin’s most disappointing performances and expect the Badgers to get their revenge in this matchup. This game should remain close throughout but the 3.5-point spread is not enough to blink at and it should be noted Wisconsin is 21-12 against the spread on the season.
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