Tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET, Saint Josephs will take on Dayton as a part of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.
These two teams initially faced off on January 24th in which Dayton produced a 77-72 victory. The Flyers leaped out to a double-digit lead early in the matchup and fought off a spirited comeback effort from the Hawks in this matchup.
Saint Josephs is riding high into this matchup after defeating La Salle in the previous game following the loss in the regular season finale between these two squads. They had won five straight games before this loss. In contrast, Dayton will be suiting up for their first game of the tournament due to the bye brought on by being the third seed.
Dayton enters this game as a -1.5-point favorite and -120 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Saint Josephs holds +100 on the Moneyline with the game total set at 140.5.
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Saint Josephs Analysis
Saint Josephs holds a 21-11 record on the season and is 11-7 in conference play. They have defeated Texas Tech and Villanova this season which are their most impressive victories while their worst losses were at the hands of Penn and Central Connecticut State.
They are led in scoring by sophomore guard Xzayvier Brown. The Philadelphia native is averaging 17.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on the season. Eric Reynolds II also pitches in 16.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. Rasheer Flemming also provides balance at the forward position and is the only other scorer in double-figures. Flemming averages 15.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game.
As a team, the Hawks score 75.8 points per game which ranks 122nd in the country. They rank 80th in the country in assists per game and attempt three-pointers at the 46th-highest rate. Defensively, they hold opponents to 68.5 points per game which is the 73rd best rate. Opponents are shooting just 41.5% against them, the 56th-best rate, and allow the 37th-fewest free-throw attempts per game.
Dayton Analysis
The Dayton Flyers enter this matchup with a 22-9 record on the season and are 12-6 in Atlantic 10 play. Their most notable victories have been over UConn, Marquette, and VCU. Some of their more concerning losses include Massachusettes, Loyola Chicago, Saint Bonaventure, and George. Washington.
Nate Santos leads the team in production with 14.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. Enoch Cheeks also adds 13.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game. Javon Bennett and Malachi Smith each also pitch in over 10 points per game.
Collectively, Dayton averages 75.4 points per game which ranks 134th in the country. They rank 69th in assists per game, 54th in free throw attempts, and shoot the 85th-best three-point percentage as a team at 35.7%. Defensively, they allow 70.0 points per game which ranks 118th in the country.
The Pick: Saint Josephs Moneyline
There have been some ups and downs for Saint Josephs this season but they are a more talented team than the standard they have played up to for most of the season. They closed the season on their most impressive stretch and have carried this into conference tournament play. While the final score of 75-70 over La Salle does not blow you away, Saint Joes pushed the lead to as large as 21 and controlled the game from just about start to finish before a late push by La Salle made the score appear closer than the game actually was.
Xzayvier Brown will be the most talented player on the floor and has a chance at cracking an NBA roster when his time in college is over. Expect Dayton to have no answer for his creation ability on the perimeter. Brown finished with 18 points, five assists, and four rebounds in the regular season matchup and left some production on the table. Erik Reynolds II and Rasheer Flemming are plenty capable of providing the necessary level of supporting production.
Dayton has not played since March 7th so will have the rest advantage but have also had some struggles with inconsistent levels of play this season. They are 9-13 ATS this season when the spread is set at -1.5 or greater and have covered the spread in just seven of the 18 conference games.
Look for Saint Josephs to get their revenge on the regular season loss and come out with the outright victory tonight. They are a more talented team than they have shown for most of the season but look to be finding their stride at the right time. Look for them to carry this effort into tonight. Most of their issues have been internal with their level of play and it has been encouraging to see a lot of these issues fixed. Expect a convincing performance tonight and don’t count out the Hawks from stealing an NCAA Tournament bid at the conference tournament’s conclusion.
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