The first tickets are being punched to the NCAA Tournament as conference tournaments continue to whittle down the remaining teams. This is the case in the Big East with UConn and Creighton set to face off in a heavyweight semifinals battle.
UConn is looking to defend their back-to-back National Championships by making some noise again this year, and they’ve played some impressive basketball of late. They defeated Villanova 73-56 last night by completely flipping the script in the second half and outscoring Villanova 42-20.
Creighton also enters with plenty of momentum as they won four of their last five final games of the regular season. DePaul gave them a scare in their opening tournament matchup, but Creighton escaped with an 85-81 overtime victory. The winner of this matchup will take on the winner of the matchup between Saint John’s and Marquette on the other side of the Big East bracket.
This will be the third matchup between these two teams this season. Creighton secured a 68-63 victory back on January 18th, but UConn got even with a 70-66 victory a month later.
UConn enters tonight’s matchup as 4.5-point favorites and -185 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Creighton holds +154 odds on the Moneyline while the game total is set at 139.5 for the matchup.
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UConn Analysis
The Connecticut Huskies have already tallied more losses than in either of the past two seasons, but they are still a team that you can never count out. They hold a record of 23-9 on the season and a 15-17 record ATS. UConn has gone 14-6 in conference play this season but are just 5-5 against Quad 1 opponents on the season.
Solomon Ball, Alex Karaban, and Liam McNeeley lead the charge for the Huskies with each player averaging 14.5 points per game or greater. Karaban brings the championship experience while Solomon Ball leads the conference in three-point shooting at 42.3% on the season. Tarris Reed Jr, Hassan Diarra, and Samson Johnson are each names to note as well.
The Huskies rank 82nd in the country in scoring at 77.9 points per game and are 14th in offensive rating. They tally the fifth-most assists per game and rank ninth in free-throw percentage at 79.3% as a team. Defensively, UConn holds opponents to 67.9 points per game, which is the 60th-best rate in the country. They rank 80th in opponent field goal percentage, 17th in opponent three-point attempts allowed, and lead the country in blocks.
Creighton Analysis
Creighton has quietly cruised through their season with a 23-9 record, 18-12-2 ATS, and has gone 15-5 in Big East play. They are just 5-6 against Quad 1 opponents and also suffered three losses in Quad 2 matchups.
Ryan Kalkbrenner headlines the production for the Blue Jays. The 7-foot-1 big man is averaging 19.8 points and leads the conference with 9.0 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game. He also leads the conference with a 68.9% effective field goal percentage. Steven Ashworth and Pop Isaacs provide a nice scoring punch on the perimeter with each providing 16.5 and 16.3 points per game. Ashworth also leads the conference with 7.0 assists per game and the best free-throw percentage at 92.2%. Jamiya Neal also adds 11.2 points per game as the only other scorer in double figures.
As a team, Creighton averages 75.7 points which ranks 127th in the country. They rank 46th in field goal percentage, 11th in assists, and attempt the 27th-most three-pointers per game in the country. Defensively, they give up 69.4 points per game which ranks 96th in the nation. The Bluejays also are holding opponents to just 40.8% from the field, the 36th-best rate, and have held opponents to the second-fewest free throw attempts per game this season.
The Pick: UConn -4.5
Ryan Kalkbrenner is the most impactful player on the floor and will provide a challenge for UConn’s defense in this game. But, there are more ways that UConn can take control of the contest and I am buying into the recent stretch of strong performances the Huskies have produced. They enter this one on a five-game winning streak, winning each by more than five points. Connecticut has won nine of its last 10 games at Madison Square Garden while Creighton has lost four of its last five at the Mecca of basketball.
It should be noted that Liam McNeeley missed the regular season matchup between these two teams that UConn lost. He exploded for 38 points and 10 rebounds in the second game and will be a factor tonight. There is more to take away from the second matchup between these two teams, which the Huskies won 70-66 despite shooting 39.4% from the floor and 23.1% on three-point attempts.
What is most impressive about UConn is their ability to flip the switch and reach a level that few teams in the country can. This was evident in this second matchup between these two teams in which Connecticut outscored Creighton 41-29 in the second half. The same was true last night against Villanova in which UConn suffocated them defensively, limiting them to 20 second-half points.
Expect a similar effort from the back-to-back national champions tonight. Creighton will put up a fight and this game should remain close for most of the matchup before UConn can pull away in the second half. Count on Dan Hurley to have his squad fired up and for UConn to cover the -4.5 spread to prepare for the Big East Championship tomorrow.
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