Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Phillies -135
Both starting pitchers are coming off performances in which they pitched five-plus innings of shutout ball. And because that’s been pointed out, that naturally means they’re both due rough outings. But, that doesn’t mean the total is where we’ll go here.
In part, that’s due to the fact the Cubs have done nothing vs. right-handed pitching this month. Chicago has one of the 10 worst strikeout rates against righties in June, which plays into Aaron Nola’s hand. Right-handed pitchers have also held Cubs hitters to an abysmal .127 ISO throughout June. While they’ve hit a good amount of line drive against righties of late, the Cubs’ 45.1% ground-ball rate and 28.5% hard-contact rate against righties in June both rank among the worst marks across baseball.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have one of the lowest ground-ball rates against left-handed pitching this month (39.7%) and rank among the top seven NL teams in hard-contact rates (35%) within the split. That’s led to a .186 ISO, which is the eighth-best in baseball. Philly does have a high strikeout rate against lefties this month (and on the season), but Drew Smyly isn’t a strikeout pitcher by any means. Maybe he goes over his K prop, but that won’t be enough to shift the scales. What will be impactful, however, is the fact hitters have a 45.5% fly-ball rate against him this season (44.7% in June).
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Total under 9.5
Austin Cox got extended a bit in his last appearance, and if that happens on Wednesday, the Royals could be in for a bounce-back win. Rather than go the win-loss route, playing the total is my preferred path here. The Guardians have been brutal against lefties all season. While their June ISO within the split (.153) is better than their season-long mark (.134), they still aren’t generating much power against lefties. But, that’s not too surprising once you take note of their 28.9% hard-contact rate against lefties this month — a mark that’s only outdone by San Francisco (26%).
KC doesn’t have the same issue with making hard contact against left-handed pitching, but they don’t get the ball airborne enough (43% ground-ball rate). They’ve still managed to post a .310 BABIP against lefties this month, but that’s while generating a rough .113 ISO and a 27.2% strikeout rate.
So, while Cox has a chance to extend himself further for KC, Logan Allen is in position to continue getting back on track after he followed up a pair of rough, five-run performances with an abbreviated appearance vs. Oakland — during which he didn’t surrender a run.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
